A few years back Patrick suggested the Lakers should amnesty Kobe. I wholeheartedly agreed then, and it has become even more true now. Given the Laker’s cap space and the iffy status of Kobe’s health, the wise move is to part ways with Kobe using the Amnesty Clause the last lockout afforded teams. To recap how this works:

• A team is allowed to remove a player from their contract that was on the team pre-lockout (same contract)
• The player still gets paid
• However, the team now gets a roster space and no cap-hit from that player’s contract

Kobe still gets paid, the Lakers get their books in better shape. Everyone wins! And let’s see why this is such a clear move for the Lakers.

They can’t afford him!

The new CBA added even more rules that make it super punitive for teams that spend a lot. The NBA has a “luxury cap” at around $70 million. You are “fined” for every dollar you are over the limit. What’s more, if you are a “repeat offender”, meaning you were over the luxury cap in 2011, 2012 and 2013, you are fined at an even higher rate. The Lakers fall in this boat. The Lakers are currently on the books for around $80 million. They also only have 5 players under contract (7 if World Peace and Jodie Meeks’ options are accepted/picked up) And they are trying to sign Dwight Howard. Here’s how those fines look:

In the ideal case, the Lakers don’t add any players, they’re already in the hole almost $30 million. In the worst case, Dwight re-signs (he’s eligible for a contract near $17 million this season), the Lakers are looking at over $100 million in penalties! Amnestying Kobe’s $30 million contract is the only thing that gives them a shot at re-signing Dwight and maybe fielding a good team this season, while also avoiding insane fees.

He’s not worth the money!

Let’s pretend a few far-fetched scenarios. Kobe comes back completely healthy. Kobe plays 3000 minutes at the exact same production he did last year. And finally, let’s inflate the value of a win to $2 million. Last season Kobe earned his team roughly 10 wins. At our high rate, he’d be overpaid by $10 million! And that’ before taking the insane luxury hits into account! Kobe has been a good player most of his career. And the combination of rookie contracts and player limits have meant he’s been underpaid most of his career. Not next season though. Next season, his contract is a terrible terrible value. But all of that assumes Kobe’s at 100% and ready to go, which of course, he isn’t!

He’s not healthy!

Kobe suffered an ACL injury that ended his season that year. And while recent reports have him optimistically returning in November or December, I just can’t believe he’ll be anywhere close to 100%. A recent paper titled “Performance Outcomes After Repair of Complete Achilles Tendon Ruptures in National Basketball Association Players” examined NBA players that suffered injuries to their Achilles tendon. Here are some highlights:

At the time of injury, the average age was 29.7 years, average BMI was 25.6, and average playing experience was 7.6 years. Seven players never returned to play an NBA game, whereas 11 players returned to play 1 season, with 8 of those players returning for over 2 seasons. Players who returned missed an average of 55.9 games.

The NBA players who returned to play after repair of complete Achilles tendon ruptures showed a significant decrease in playing time and performance. Thirty-nine percent of players never returned to play.

Sadly, the paper uses PER as its’ performance metric. Regardless, the point is pretty simple, this is a major injury. Players don’t return 100% from this. Even using crazy German magic, I don’t believe Kobe will be anywhere close to his old self. Speaking of that...

He’s old!

If we examine Kobe’s year to year performance from 2008 (when the Lakers got back to the finals) to last season, we see a disturbing trend. Kobe’s performance degrades rapidly. Last season he had a massive and surprising turnaround. Interestingly, two other Laker greats -- Kareem and Shaq -- had a similar trick. They degraded with age, managed to pull out one last good season before fully falling off. I was ready to write Kobe off last season. Even after his remarkable comeback, I’m still in the same boat. Tack on the injury and I’m still confident with this point.

Alright, that’s a ton of reasons why amnestying makes sense. However, I’ve heard a few reasons the Lakers can’t amnesty Kobe. Let’s review those.

Why Laker fans won’t be angry

The first reason essentially boils down to “Think of the fans!!” If the Lakers cut Kobe, then fans will be upset, season ticket holders will refuse to pay. The Lakers will lose money! I love the Lakers in particular here. In 2004, the Lakers had a similar situation. After failing to win the finals, the Kobe and Shaq feud pushed Shaq out. Phil Jackson wasn’t brought back. What’s more, the Lakers won 22 fewer games the following season. We can use Forbes’ numbers to see what happened in Los Angeles.

• 2003-2004 Revenue - $170 million
• 2004-2005 Revenue - $156 million

The Lakers operating costs went up and their salaries went down. The net effect? The Lakers were around $14 million poorer after snubbing two star Lakers and losing lots of games. Adjusted for inflation, $14 million is worth around $17 million of today’s dollars. That’s far short of the amount Kobe’s contract and cap hit alone will cost the Lakers. It’s important to remember, fans like winning! We like to believe they’re loyal to players. The numbers just don’t bear this out. And using history as a guide, it doesn’t seem like Laker fans will completely leave just at the loss of a star and the promise of a title.

Why this won’t tarnish the Laker’s legacy

This is another argument that is so baffling to me. Kobe has been a career Laker. Letting him go will reflect poorly on the Lakers. Except, the Lakers haven’t shown loyalty to players. The refused to sign Shaq to an extension and let him walk. The put both Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom on the block. They’ve snubbed Phil Jackson multiple times. As I noted above, the fans don’t mind that much. As for other players and people? Even after the Shaq drama, both Pau and Dwight came over. Marquee coaches are still banging for the Lakers job. The simple fact is a team with a huge fanbase in a great market has a lot of power. No snub to players will harm that greatly. In fact, it’s worth noting that a decade ago Kobe was in trouble on rape charges. Shortly after he was demanding a trade out of L.A. And now, suddenly he can’t leave? Fans forget quickly, and apparently so do people examining the trends of fans.

Summing up

Examining this whole scenario has been interesting. Basically I’ve heard the following “The Lakers should amnesty Kobe, but they won’t” As I’ve reviewed, the data on Kobe being a worthwhile member this season is bad. If he has another great season, it will be a fluke! What’s more, the cost is gigantic! There are few realms where someone could say “We are going to throw away $20 to $100 million, just because” and not be fired. Of course, sports aren’t really a business. At least, there’s no way we can consider them one if the Lakers hold on to Kobe.

-Dre