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The BSG 2013-14 NBA MegaPreview: The Wrap

Adrian Veidt: I did the right thing, didn't I? It all worked out in the end.

Dr. Manhattan: 'In the end'? Nothing ends, Adrian. Nothing ever ends.

from the graphic novel "The Watchmen" by Alan Moore

One week, thirty previews. Does that sound simple? It really wasn't. Hundreds of man-hours went into putting this exercise together. Projections are time consuming, stressful and at times frustrating. On top of that, I'm also putting my work out there for censure and ridicule.

Oh, who am I kidding? We love it, and so do you. We love it so much that we put together a  Fan Prediction Challenge to track everyone's predictions. We gave you preseason numbers.

And for grins and giggles, I did one final run through of the Model after the Wizards and Suns trade and after final cuts last night. I may be using it in the prediction contest above. I give you the Final Boxscore geeks preseason Projection:

Boxscore Geeks Final Projection Cheat Sheet

Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet Las Vegas Hilton Odds Actual Wins Win Proj
Team Division Division Odds O/U W 2011 2012 2013 Bad Avg Good
Brooklyn Nets ATLANTIC 7/4 52.5 24 27 49 33 43 54
Toronto Raptors ATLANTIC 1/10 36.5 22 29 34 29 37 45
Boston Celtics ATLANTIC 1/60 27.5 56 48 41 31 39 46
New York Knicks ATLANTIC 2/3 49.5 42 45 54 30 37 44
Philadelphia 76ers ATLANTIC 1/500 16.5 41 43 34 24 34 44
Chicago Bulls CENTRAL 3/2 56.5 62 62 45 44 50 56
Detroit Pistons CENTRAL 1/18 41.0 30 31 29 39 46 54
Cleveland Cavaliers CENTRAL 1/20 40.5 19 26 24 31 42 52
Indiana Pacers CENTRAL 10/13 53.5 37 52 49 30 40 50
Milwaukee Bucks CENTRAL 1/100 28.5 35 39 38 19 28 37
Miami Heat SOUTHEAST 75/1 60.0 58 57 66 51 57 63
Atlanta Hawks SOUTHEAST 1/15 40.0 44 50 44 40 47 54
Washington Wizards SOUTHEAST 1/12 42.0 23 25 29 34 44 54
Charlotte Bobcats SOUTHEAST 1/300 27.5 34 9 21 20 29 37
Orlando Magic SOUTHEAST 1/300 24.5 52 46 20 19 28 38
Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet Las Vegas Hilton Odds Actual Wins Win Proj
Team Division Division Odds O/U W 2011 2012 2013 Bad Avg Good
Oklahoma City Thunder NORTHWEST 7/2 50.5 55 58 60 44 53 63
Utah Jazz NORTHWEST 1/100 27.5 39 45 43 35 42 49
Denver Nuggets NORTHWEST 1/6 47.0 50 47 57 38 46 54
Minnesota Timberwolves NORTHWEST 1/7 41.0 17 32 31 20 34 48
Portland Trail Blazers NORTHWEST 1/10 38.5 48 35 33 20 28 35
Los Angeles Clippers PACIFIC 4/1 57.0 32 50 56 49 53 58
Golden State Warriors PACIFIC 4/9 49.5 36 29 47 30 39 47
Phoenix Suns PACIFIC 1/300 21.5 40 41 25 20 31 41
Sacramento Kings PACIFIC 1/75 31.5 24 27 28 17 29 41
Los Angeles Lakers PACIFIC 1/40 33.5 57 51 45 15 24 34
Houston Rockets SOUTHWEST 2/3 54.5 43 42 45 53 61 68
San Antonio Spurs SOUTHWEST 10/11 55.5 61 62 58 53 58 63
Memphis Grizzlies SOUTHWEST 2/11 49.0 46 51 56 50 57 63
Dallas Mavericks SOUTHWEST 1/15 44.0 57 45 41 41 47 55
New Orleans Pelicans SOUTHWEST 1/20 40.0 46 26 27 17 28 40

And we musn't forget the odds table:

Boxscore Geeks Final Projection Odds

Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet Simulation Odds
Team Division Under Over Div #1 Seed Top #4 Seed Playoffs Average Seed Conf Rk
Brooklyn Nets ATLANTIC 81% 19% 43% 7% 34% 64% 6.9 6
Toronto Raptors ATLANTIC 51% 49% 13% 1% 9% 38% 9.3 11
Boston Celtics ATLANTIC 6% 94% 18% 1% 10% 46% 8.7 9
New York Knicks ATLANTIC 95% 5% 15% 1% 8% 43% 9.1 10
Philadelphia 76ers ATLANTIC 2% 98% 11% 0% 6% 28% 10.4 12
Chicago Bulls CENTRAL 85% 15% 47% 10% 65% 95% 4.0 2
Detroit Pistons CENTRAL 22% 78% 25% 5% 43% 84% 5.5 4
Cleveland Cavaliers CENTRAL 47% 53% 14% 4% 24% 59% 7.6 7
Indiana Pacers CENTRAL 91% 9% 14% 4% 23% 54% 7.9 8
Milwaukee Bucks CENTRAL 58% 43% 1% 0% 1% 11% 12.4 15
Miami Heat SOUTHEAST 68% 33% 77% 53% 93% 99% 2.0 1
Atlanta Hawks SOUTHEAST 15% 85% 12% 6% 47% 88% 5.1 3
Washington Wizards SOUTHEAST 44% 56% 11% 8% 33% 67% 6.7 5
Charlotte Bobcats SOUTHEAST 48% 53% 0% 0% 1% 11% 12.3 14
Orlando Magic SOUTHEAST 36% 64% 0% 0% 2% 14% 12.1 13
Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet Simulation Odds
Team Division Under Over Div #1 Seed Top #4 Seed Playoffs Average Seed Conf Rk
Oklahoma City Thunder NORTHWEST 36% 64% 64% 15% 52% 90% 4.6 5
Utah Jazz NORTHWEST 1% 99% 7% 0% 4% 52% 8.4 8
Denver Nuggets NORTHWEST 54% 46% 20% 1% 16% 73% 7.0 7
Minnesota Timberwolves NORTHWEST 71% 30% 9% 2% 8% 28% 10.4 10
Portland Trail Blazers NORTHWEST 93% 7% 0% 0% 0% 3% 12.4 14
Los Angeles Clippers PACIFIC 77% 23% 90% 3% 52% 99% 4.4 4
Golden State Warriors PACIFIC 91% 9% 5% 0% 3% 34% 9.4 9
Phoenix Suns PACIFIC 21% 79% 2% 0% 1% 12% 11.5 11
Sacramento Kings PACIFIC 57% 43% 3% 0% 3% 16% 11.6 12
Los Angeles Lakers PACIFIC 85% 15% 0% 0% 0% 4% 12.9 15
Houston Rockets SOUTHWEST 21% 79% 51% 44% 84% 98% 2.6 1
San Antonio Spurs SOUTHWEST 30% 70% 24% 17% 83% 100% 3.0 2
Memphis Grizzlies SOUTHWEST 13% 87% 22% 17% 72% 98% 3.5 3
Dallas Mavericks SOUTHWEST 28% 72% 3% 2% 21% 82% 6.4 6
New Orleans Pelicans SOUTHWEST 85% 15% 0% 0% 1% 12% 11.9 13

Fun stuff. Now I only have one final resposibility to discharge before the season starts. I need to do my ridiculously early playoff projection (which was eerily accurate last year). Let's start with playoff picture:

The Projected Playoff Picture
Seed Team Conference Division   Team Conference Division
1 Miami Heat East SOUTHEAST   Houston Rockets West SOUTHWEST
2 Chicago Bulls East CENTRAL   San Antonio Spurs West SOUTHWEST
3 Atlanta Hawks East SOUTHEAST   Memphis Grizzlies West SOUTHWEST
4 Detroit Pistons East CENTRAL   Los Angeles Clippers West PACIFIC
5 Washington Wizards East SOUTHEAST   Oklahoma City Thunder West NORTHWEST
6 Brooklyn Nets East ATLANTIC   Dallas Mavericks West SOUTHWEST
7 Cleveland Cavaliers East CENTRAL   Denver Nuggets West NORTHWEST
8 Indiana Pacers East CENTRAL   Utah Jazz West NORTHWEST
9 Boston Celtics East ATLANTIC   Golden State Warriors West PACIFIC
10 New York Knicks East ATLANTIC   Minnesota Timberwolves West NORTHWEST
11 Toronto Raptors East ATLANTIC   Phoenix Suns West PACIFIC
12 Philadelphia 76ers East ATLANTIC   Sacramento Kings West PACIFIC
13 Orlando Magic East SOUTHEAST   New Orleans Pelicans West SOUTHWEST
14 Charlotte Bobcats East SOUTHEAST   Portland Trail Blazers West NORTHWEST
15 Milwaukee Bucks East CENTRAL   Los Angeles Lakers West PACIFIC

And now for the playoff simulation:

The Super Early 2013-14 Playoff Sim
Conf Round Higher Seed Lower Seed Higher Team Odds Pick?
East 1 Miami Heat Indiana Pacers 91.9% W5
East 1 Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers 81.7% W5
East 1 Atlanta Hawks Brooklyn Nets 79.9% W5
East 1 Detroit Pistons Washington Wizards 88.8% W5
West 1 Houston Rockets Utah Jazz 88.0% W5
West 1 San Antonio Spurs Denver Nuggets 97.3% W5
West 1 Memphis Grizzlies Dallas Mavericks 59.6% W7
West 1 Los Angeles Clippers Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5% W7
East 2 Miami Heat Detroit Pistons 70.0% W5
East 2 Chicago Bulls Atlanta Hawks 62.3% W7
West 2 Houston Rockets Los Angeles Clippers 75.8% W5
West 2 San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies 98.0% W4
East Conf Finals Miami Heat Chicago Bulls 72.0% W5
West Conf Finals Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs 31.1% L6
Finals (SA higher Seed) San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat 90.0% W5
Finals (Mia higher Seed) Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs 13.7% L6

Pacers/Heat, Grizz/Mavs, Clipps/Mavs highlight round 1 but it all goes to the higher seed. Bulls/Hawks is the class of round 2. Bulls are not as good as they were two years ago and fall to the Heat easily in the ECF. San Antonio blocks Houston way for one year at least in the WCF.

We get our rematch for the Ages and I get to Pick the Spurs in six again.

And that brings us to the end of our preseason preview.

Now we just have to do in season reviews and projections, rankings, draft projections. It never ends, does it?

P.S. Wanna see the final roster projections?