Adrian Veidt: I did the right thing, didn't I? It all worked out in the end.
Dr. Manhattan: 'In the end'? Nothing ends, Adrian. Nothing ever ends.
from the graphic novel "The Watchmen" by Alan Moore
One week, thirty previews. Does that sound simple? It really wasn't. Hundreds of man-hours went into putting this exercise together. Projections are time consuming, stressful and at times frustrating. On top of that, I'm also putting my work out there for censure and ridicule.
Oh, who am I kidding? We love it, and so do you. We love it so much that we put together a Fan Prediction Challenge to track everyone's predictions. We gave you preseason numbers.
And for grins and giggles, I did one final run through of the Model after the Wizards and Suns trade and after final cuts last night. I may be using it in the prediction contest above. I give you the Final Boxscore geeks preseason Projection:
Boxscore Geeks Final Projection Cheat Sheet
| Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet | Las Vegas Hilton Odds | Actual Wins | Win Proj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Division | Division Odds | O/U W | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Bad | Avg | Good |
| Brooklyn Nets | ATLANTIC | 7/4 | 52.5 | 24 | 27 | 49 | 33 | 43 | 54 |
| Toronto Raptors | ATLANTIC | 1/10 | 36.5 | 22 | 29 | 34 | 29 | 37 | 45 |
| Boston Celtics | ATLANTIC | 1/60 | 27.5 | 56 | 48 | 41 | 31 | 39 | 46 |
| New York Knicks | ATLANTIC | 2/3 | 49.5 | 42 | 45 | 54 | 30 | 37 | 44 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | ATLANTIC | 1/500 | 16.5 | 41 | 43 | 34 | 24 | 34 | 44 |
| Chicago Bulls | CENTRAL | 3/2 | 56.5 | 62 | 62 | 45 | 44 | 50 | 56 |
| Detroit Pistons | CENTRAL | 1/18 | 41.0 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 39 | 46 | 54 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | CENTRAL | 1/20 | 40.5 | 19 | 26 | 24 | 31 | 42 | 52 |
| Indiana Pacers | CENTRAL | 10/13 | 53.5 | 37 | 52 | 49 | 30 | 40 | 50 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CENTRAL | 1/100 | 28.5 | 35 | 39 | 38 | 19 | 28 | 37 |
| Miami Heat | SOUTHEAST | 75/1 | 60.0 | 58 | 57 | 66 | 51 | 57 | 63 |
| Atlanta Hawks | SOUTHEAST | 1/15 | 40.0 | 44 | 50 | 44 | 40 | 47 | 54 |
| Washington Wizards | SOUTHEAST | 1/12 | 42.0 | 23 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 44 | 54 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | SOUTHEAST | 1/300 | 27.5 | 34 | 9 | 21 | 20 | 29 | 37 |
| Orlando Magic | SOUTHEAST | 1/300 | 24.5 | 52 | 46 | 20 | 19 | 28 | 38 |
| Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet | Las Vegas Hilton Odds | Actual Wins | Win Proj | ||||||
| Team | Division | Division Odds | O/U W | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Bad | Avg | Good |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | NORTHWEST | 7/2 | 50.5 | 55 | 58 | 60 | 44 | 53 | 63 |
| Utah Jazz | NORTHWEST | 1/100 | 27.5 | 39 | 45 | 43 | 35 | 42 | 49 |
| Denver Nuggets | NORTHWEST | 1/6 | 47.0 | 50 | 47 | 57 | 38 | 46 | 54 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | NORTHWEST | 1/7 | 41.0 | 17 | 32 | 31 | 20 | 34 | 48 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | NORTHWEST | 1/10 | 38.5 | 48 | 35 | 33 | 20 | 28 | 35 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | PACIFIC | 4/1 | 57.0 | 32 | 50 | 56 | 49 | 53 | 58 |
| Golden State Warriors | PACIFIC | 4/9 | 49.5 | 36 | 29 | 47 | 30 | 39 | 47 |
| Phoenix Suns | PACIFIC | 1/300 | 21.5 | 40 | 41 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 41 |
| Sacramento Kings | PACIFIC | 1/75 | 31.5 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 17 | 29 | 41 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | PACIFIC | 1/40 | 33.5 | 57 | 51 | 45 | 15 | 24 | 34 |
| Houston Rockets | SOUTHWEST | 2/3 | 54.5 | 43 | 42 | 45 | 53 | 61 | 68 |
| San Antonio Spurs | SOUTHWEST | 10/11 | 55.5 | 61 | 62 | 58 | 53 | 58 | 63 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SOUTHWEST | 2/11 | 49.0 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 50 | 57 | 63 |
| Dallas Mavericks | SOUTHWEST | 1/15 | 44.0 | 57 | 45 | 41 | 41 | 47 | 55 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SOUTHWEST | 1/20 | 40.0 | 46 | 26 | 27 | 17 | 28 | 40 |
And we musn't forget the odds table:
Boxscore Geeks Final Projection Odds
| Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet | Simulation Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Division | Under | Over | Div | #1 Seed | Top #4 Seed | Playoffs | Average Seed | Conf Rk |
| Brooklyn Nets | ATLANTIC | 81% | 19% | 43% | 7% | 34% | 64% | 6.9 | 6 |
| Toronto Raptors | ATLANTIC | 51% | 49% | 13% | 1% | 9% | 38% | 9.3 | 11 |
| Boston Celtics | ATLANTIC | 6% | 94% | 18% | 1% | 10% | 46% | 8.7 | 9 |
| New York Knicks | ATLANTIC | 95% | 5% | 15% | 1% | 8% | 43% | 9.1 | 10 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | ATLANTIC | 2% | 98% | 11% | 0% | 6% | 28% | 10.4 | 12 |
| Chicago Bulls | CENTRAL | 85% | 15% | 47% | 10% | 65% | 95% | 4.0 | 2 |
| Detroit Pistons | CENTRAL | 22% | 78% | 25% | 5% | 43% | 84% | 5.5 | 4 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | CENTRAL | 47% | 53% | 14% | 4% | 24% | 59% | 7.6 | 7 |
| Indiana Pacers | CENTRAL | 91% | 9% | 14% | 4% | 23% | 54% | 7.9 | 8 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | CENTRAL | 58% | 43% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 11% | 12.4 | 15 |
| Miami Heat | SOUTHEAST | 68% | 33% | 77% | 53% | 93% | 99% | 2.0 | 1 |
| Atlanta Hawks | SOUTHEAST | 15% | 85% | 12% | 6% | 47% | 88% | 5.1 | 3 |
| Washington Wizards | SOUTHEAST | 44% | 56% | 11% | 8% | 33% | 67% | 6.7 | 5 |
| Charlotte Bobcats | SOUTHEAST | 48% | 53% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 11% | 12.3 | 14 |
| Orlando Magic | SOUTHEAST | 36% | 64% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 14% | 12.1 | 13 |
| Box Score Geeks Cheat Sheet | Simulation Odds | ||||||||
| Team | Division | Under | Over | Div | #1 Seed | Top #4 Seed | Playoffs | Average Seed | Conf Rk |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | NORTHWEST | 36% | 64% | 64% | 15% | 52% | 90% | 4.6 | 5 |
| Utah Jazz | NORTHWEST | 1% | 99% | 7% | 0% | 4% | 52% | 8.4 | 8 |
| Denver Nuggets | NORTHWEST | 54% | 46% | 20% | 1% | 16% | 73% | 7.0 | 7 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | NORTHWEST | 71% | 30% | 9% | 2% | 8% | 28% | 10.4 | 10 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | NORTHWEST | 93% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 12.4 | 14 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | PACIFIC | 77% | 23% | 90% | 3% | 52% | 99% | 4.4 | 4 |
| Golden State Warriors | PACIFIC | 91% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 34% | 9.4 | 9 |
| Phoenix Suns | PACIFIC | 21% | 79% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 11.5 | 11 |
| Sacramento Kings | PACIFIC | 57% | 43% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 16% | 11.6 | 12 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | PACIFIC | 85% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 12.9 | 15 |
| Houston Rockets | SOUTHWEST | 21% | 79% | 51% | 44% | 84% | 98% | 2.6 | 1 |
| San Antonio Spurs | SOUTHWEST | 30% | 70% | 24% | 17% | 83% | 100% | 3.0 | 2 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | SOUTHWEST | 13% | 87% | 22% | 17% | 72% | 98% | 3.5 | 3 |
| Dallas Mavericks | SOUTHWEST | 28% | 72% | 3% | 2% | 21% | 82% | 6.4 | 6 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | SOUTHWEST | 85% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 11.9 | 13 |
Fun stuff. Now I only have one final resposibility to discharge before the season starts. I need to do my ridiculously early playoff projection (which was eerily accurate last year). Let's start with playoff picture:
| The Projected Playoff Picture | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seed | Team | Conference | Division | Team | Conference | Division | |
| 1 | Miami Heat | East | SOUTHEAST | Houston Rockets | West | SOUTHWEST | |
| 2 | Chicago Bulls | East | CENTRAL | San Antonio Spurs | West | SOUTHWEST | |
| 3 | Atlanta Hawks | East | SOUTHEAST | Memphis Grizzlies | West | SOUTHWEST | |
| 4 | Detroit Pistons | East | CENTRAL | Los Angeles Clippers | West | PACIFIC | |
| 5 | Washington Wizards | East | SOUTHEAST | Oklahoma City Thunder | West | NORTHWEST | |
| 6 | Brooklyn Nets | East | ATLANTIC | Dallas Mavericks | West | SOUTHWEST | |
| 7 | Cleveland Cavaliers | East | CENTRAL | Denver Nuggets | West | NORTHWEST | |
| 8 | Indiana Pacers | East | CENTRAL | Utah Jazz | West | NORTHWEST | |
| 9 | Boston Celtics | East | ATLANTIC | Golden State Warriors | West | PACIFIC | |
| 10 | New York Knicks | East | ATLANTIC | Minnesota Timberwolves | West | NORTHWEST | |
| 11 | Toronto Raptors | East | ATLANTIC | Phoenix Suns | West | PACIFIC | |
| 12 | Philadelphia 76ers | East | ATLANTIC | Sacramento Kings | West | PACIFIC | |
| 13 | Orlando Magic | East | SOUTHEAST | New Orleans Pelicans | West | SOUTHWEST | |
| 14 | Charlotte Bobcats | East | SOUTHEAST | Portland Trail Blazers | West | NORTHWEST | |
| 15 | Milwaukee Bucks | East | CENTRAL | Los Angeles Lakers | West | PACIFIC | |
And now for the playoff simulation:
| The Super Early 2013-14 Playoff Sim | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Round | Higher Seed | Lower Seed | Higher Team Odds | Pick? |
| East | 1 | Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | 91.9% | W5 |
| East | 1 | Chicago Bulls | Cleveland Cavaliers | 81.7% | W5 |
| East | 1 | Atlanta Hawks | Brooklyn Nets | 79.9% | W5 |
| East | 1 | Detroit Pistons | Washington Wizards | 88.8% | W5 |
| West | 1 | Houston Rockets | Utah Jazz | 88.0% | W5 |
| West | 1 | San Antonio Spurs | Denver Nuggets | 97.3% | W5 |
| West | 1 | Memphis Grizzlies | Dallas Mavericks | 59.6% | W7 |
| West | 1 | Los Angeles Clippers | Oklahoma City Thunder | 57.5% | W7 |
| East | 2 | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | 70.0% | W5 |
| East | 2 | Chicago Bulls | Atlanta Hawks | 62.3% | W7 |
| West | 2 | Houston Rockets | Los Angeles Clippers | 75.8% | W5 |
| West | 2 | San Antonio Spurs | Memphis Grizzlies | 98.0% | W4 |
| East | Conf Finals | Miami Heat | Chicago Bulls | 72.0% | W5 |
| West | Conf Finals | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs | 31.1% | L6 |
| Finals (SA higher Seed) | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | 90.0% | W5 | |
| Finals (Mia higher Seed) | Miami Heat | San Antonio Spurs | 13.7% | L6 | |
Pacers/Heat, Grizz/Mavs, Clipps/Mavs highlight round 1 but it all goes to the higher seed. Bulls/Hawks is the class of round 2. Bulls are not as good as they were two years ago and fall to the Heat easily in the ECF. San Antonio blocks Houston way for one year at least in the WCF.
We get our rematch for the Ages and I get to Pick the Spurs in six again.
And that brings us to the end of our preseason preview.
Now we just have to do in season reviews and projections, rankings, draft projections. It never ends, does it?
P.S. Wanna see the final roster projections?
