Oh my. Things have taken a turn.
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | PyW/L | expWins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | 18-14 (0.563) | 43 | 14% | $1050 | 1.91 | $2005.5 | 0.565 | 46 |
| CHI | 22-9 (0.71) | 55 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.656 | 55 |
| PHI | 4-25 (0.138) | 15.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.154 | 12 |
| WAS | 22-8 (0.733) | 48 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.631 | 55 |
| MIN | 5-24 (0.172) | 27.5 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.197 | 15 |
| SAC | 13-18 (0.419) | 30 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.45 | 36 |
| BRK | 14-16 (0.467) | 42 | 7% | $525 | 1.91 | $1002.75 | 0.419 | 36 |
| CHA | 10-22 (0.313) | 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.34 | 27 |
| DAL | 22-10 (0.688) | 49.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.696 | 57 |
| MIA | 14-18 (0.438) | 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.387 | 33 |
| SAS | 19-13 (0.594) | 57 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.631 | 51 |
| Division Bets | ||||||||
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | Rank | expWins |
| TOR | 24-7 (0.774) | WIN ATLANTIC | 3% | $225 | 1.7 | $382.5 | 1st | 62 |
| SAS | 19-13 (0.594) | WIN SOUTHWEST | 5% | $375 | 1.6 | $600.0 | 2nd | 51 |
| CLE | 18-12 (0.6) | WIN CENTRAL | 4% | $300 | 1.5 | $450.0 | 3rd | 49 |
| PHO | 18-14 (0.563) | WIN PACIFIC | 3% | $225 | 13.0 | $2925.0 | 3rd | 46 |
| MIN | 5-24 (0.172) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 101.0 | $7575.0 | 5th | 15 |
| POR | 25-7 (0.781) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 3.8 | $285.0 | 1st | 62 |
| ATL | 22-8 (0.733) | WIN SOUTHEAST | 1% | $75 | 6.0 | $450.0 | 2nd | 56 |
As usual, an explanation of a few columns:
- PyW/L is the team's pythagorean win percentage expectation, which calculates an expected win percentage based on points for and points against. I arbitrarily chose Daryl Morey's method of calculating this in basketball, which you can find on Wikipedia.
- expWins is simply the team's current wins + (PyW/L * remaining games). In other words, how many expected wins will the team have at season's end if performance to date remains constant (which, as Arturo has pointed out, has some variability this early in the season).
- For division, Rank is based on win/loss percentage, not total wins. Right now, those can differ because some teams have played more than others, but at the end of the season, obviously, they produce identical rankings.
In November, things looked really good, with the majority of the bets on progress to be in the black. After December, they don't look as good; some borderline teams collapsed a bit and some long shots did not pan out. I'm still breaking things down into three categories:
BOOK IT
- Sacramento OVER 30. Last time, I said that they just don't have enough stiffs to lose 52 games. Some viral meningitis made things a bit scary for a while, but I still think this is the case. This looks closer than it is because of the games that Cousins missed.
- Charlotte UNDER 44. Charlotte is looking incrementally better now, but the damage is long since done. I don't think there is a lot more to say here, other than that Lance's performance mystifies me just as much as it does Michael Jordan.
- Toronto to Win the Atlantic. The gap between Toronto and Brooklyn keeps getting bigger.
- Portland to Win the Northwest. The Thunder have been on a tear, but they lost too many games early on to injury to catch up. Remember that isn't enough for the Thunder to play .700 ball the rest of the way; Portland would have to lose a lot of games for the Thunder to make up the 10 game deficit.
- Miami UNDER 44. This is another one that is probably too early to really call, but the cracks are all showing. The Bosh contract is a regrettable decision. It was way too much money for too many years for a guy just past his prime, regardless of how big the cap will get in 2016.
HANG ON TO IT
- Brooklyn UNDER 42. It's too early to really book this. The thing that would worry me is if the Nets make a trade that accidentally makes them better, even if they are trying to blow it up. They are already catching on that the team's "stars" aren't that good, and are benching Lopez.
- Phoenix OVER 43. Whew, this one was a roller coater, with 6-game losing and winning streaks, but 3 of the losses in that 6-game losing streak were by a combined 5 points (none of the wins in their win streak were that close). After all that, the team is still on pace to be about the same as last year. So maybe they just wanted to spice things up a bit?
- Chicago UNDER 55. At the beginning of the year, I said that if we lost this bet, Mirotic might be the reason. He keeps getting better, and is the clear rookie of the year choice for discerning fans. Wiggins will win, because apparently it takes the voters about 3 years of lag to forget about hype, but I'll take the guy who shoots 42% from deep, rebounds, gets to the line, and blocks shots. He has foul trouble, but that's just because he's a rookie, and that will change.
- San Antonio to win the Southwest. I was prepared to downgrade this one, but shockingly, after losing 5 of their last 7, they are still only 3 games back. This one is inversely correlated with how long Kawhi Leonard. I am not super optimistic about this one, but I'm not throwing it out just yet.
- Cleveland to win the Central. This one might be thrown out soon. I've not been a huge fan of Blatt so far. He's managed to turn Kevin Love into Ryan Anderson, lets Dion Waiters shoot like Kobe (Dion shoots more per minute than Love or Irving. How many ways do I need to re-phrase this as A Very Bad Thing!?), and doesn't seem to have LeBron's respect. Having said all that... it's four games back, and they have three more games against Chicago, with no other rivals in this division, so we can't throw this out yet.
- Atlanta to win the Southeast. They are a half game back. Who wants to give me 6-to-1 now? Also, why the hell don't I have the over on this team? Sigh.
THROW IT OUT
- Washington UNDER 48. Too much Rasual Butler (did I just type that!?). That's right, the guy with the career 51% true shooting currently has a mark of 64.7%, powered by 50% shooting from beyond the arc. This unsustainable and entirely unpredictable production is pretty much the only reason no one is moaning about the loss of Trevor Ariza. This is going to cool down, but it's too late for the Wiz to win 47 games or less.
- San Antonio OVER 57. That was a BRUTAL holiday season for Pop. Losing twice in triple-overtime wasn't in the prediction handbook. The Spurs will definitely be in the thick of it in May, but 57 is now an unreasonable goal after such a stretch of bad luck. Given the uncertainty around Kawhi's rehab timetable, I think it is safe to forget about this one.
- Philadelphia OVER 15.5. Well, they've made some progress. They've gone from 8 expected wins to 12. And rumor has it that they now want Andrei Kirilenko to show up and play (presumably just to up his trade value, but that could produce some wins). On the flip side, Michael Carter Williams is playing ugly basketball. His shooting numbers look Rubio-esque, until you remember that Rubio is actually a very good free throw shooter, so the comparison does him a disservice. I'm still expecting an "aha" stretch for Nerlens Noel, but it could be a long way off. For now, let's move on.
- Minnesota OVER 27.5. Too many injuries, too much Flip. Back when december games were still a possibility for Rubio, I held out some distant hope, but now I am moving on. By the time Rubio returns (and there is no reason for him to rush back), the team will have to play above .500 ball the rest of the way to make up the lost ground, and that isn't happening.
- Minnesota to win Northwest. See above.
- Dallas UNDER 49.5. I disagree entirely with Zach Lowe; I think the Rondo trade makes them better. I'm a huge Brendan Wright fan but I don't think the team was taking full advantage of him, stuck as he was behind two all-stars in the rotation. It's the kind of trade that makes perfect sense, uploading a position of need by trading away a good player that you can't keep on the floor anyway.
- Phoenix to win the Pacific. The Warriors are returning to earth a bit with Bogut out, but they won't fall far enough for this bet to matter.