Nba nerd

Boxscore Geeks 2018 Portfolio: 1 week left!

The season is really winding down now; most teams have three or four games left. Since there are a few bets left undecided, there are a few key matchups every day (it's amazing how year-long bets always seem to come down to a few games at the end of the season), so I'll try to post about them in the coming week.

To recap, here are all the bets (except the rookie-of-the-year props):

$ Team Standing PyW/L Bet Odds Payout
$400 (10.0%) Field vs. GSW   59 - 23 CHAMP +190  
$200 (5.0%) CLE 49 - 30 50 - 32 < 54.5 -110 $381.82
$200 (5.0%) ORL 24 - 54 25 - 57 > 32.5 -110 $0
$200 (5.0%) NYK 27 - 51 28 - 54 > 29.0 -110  
$200 (5.0%) OKC 45 - 34 46 - 36 < 53.5 -110 $381.82
$200 (5.0%) DEN 44 - 35 45 - 37 > 45.5 -110  
$200 (5.0%) BOS 53 - 25 55 - 27 < 54.5 -110  
$200 (5.0%) UTH 46 - 33 47 - 35 > 41.0 -110 $381.82
$200 (5.0%) NOR 44 - 34 46 - 36 > 39.5 -110 $381.82
$200 (5.0%) CHA 34 - 45 35 - 47 > 42.5 -110 $0
$200 (5.0%) LAC 42 - 37 43 - 39 > 45.0 -110  
$100 (2.5%) POR 48 - 31 49 - 33 < 43.5 -110 $0
$100 (2.5%) MEM 21 - 57 22 - 60 < 37.5 -110 $190.91
$100 (2.5%) HOU 64 - 15 66 - 16 > 55.5 -110 $190.91
$100 (2.5%) WAS 42 - 37 43 - 39 < 49.0 -110 $190.91
$100 (2.5%) UTH 2nd (2.0 GB) 47 - 35 DIV +3000  
$100 (2.5%) BRK 26 - 53 27 - 55 > 28.5 -110  
$100 (2.5%) ATL 22 - 57 22 - 60 < 25.5 -110 $190.91
$100 (2.5%) CHI   28 - 54 PLAYOFF +1600 $0
$100 (2.5%) DET 37 - 41 38 - 44 > 38.5 -110  
$100 (2.5%) MIL 3rd (7.0 GB) 43 - 39 DIV +600 $0
$100 (2.5%) IND 47 - 32 48 - 34 > 31.5 -110 $190.91
$100 (2.5%) IND   48 - 34 PLAYOFF +375 $475.0
$100 (2.5%) PHI 3rd (8.0 GB) 50 - 32 DIV +1000 $0
$100 (2.5%) TOR 1st 58 - 24 DIV +375  
  $2956.83

The remaining key bets:

Denver: Denver must win two out of its last three games, which it is heavily incentivized to do since it's in a huge 7-team fight for a playoff spot. Yesterday's win against the Timberwolves was huge (side note: It was *really* fun to root against the Wolves, cathartic almost. I'll probably be writing about them in the near future). The problem for me here, though, is that I kind of need them to lose to the Clippers tomorrow for my best case scenario, which is problematic to say the least.

Knicks: This is so exasperating. It's a bet that I should have won in February, and instead I need this tanking monstrosity to win 2 of their next four just to get my money back, with their remaining four games against the Heat, Bucks, and Cavs (twice). Yikes. I don't think I'd take 20-to-1 on this happening. My best hope is that they pull won out against the Heat or the Bucks, and then the Cavs bench all of their starters with nothing to play for on the final game of the season. I will repeat my previous sentiment that the low minute counts of Enes Kanter and Kyle O'Quinn and the high minute count of Michael Beasley is suspicious as hell. It's frankly the kind of shit that ought to get them fined by Adam Silver.

Toronto: The magic number is 1. I'm hoping it's tonight against the Pacers or Sunday against the Raptors, although any loss by Boston is also welcome, of course.

Boston: Must go 1-3 for me to win, and this is not happening because they have by far the easiest schedule on this list, with games against the Nets, Hawks, and Bulls. So I guess tonight's game against the Bulls is sort of important. What would be good for me is for either Toronto to win or the Celtics to lose tonight -- that more-or-less locks the Celtics in to the two seed and elminates their need to play for anything, which might make this a remote possibility.

Utah: So...here's the funny thing. Utah is two games back of Portland, and plays Portland in the season's last game. If the Jazz win THAT game, they hold the tiebreaker. meaning that if the Jazz go 3-0 and the Blazers lose to either San Antonio or Denver, then I win $3000. Now, that isn't a super likely outcome, but Is it 3% likely to happen? I think so. It's hard for me to put a percentage on this, but I'd say somewhere between 10 and 20 percent. Maybe higher, if Lillard doesn't play all three games. Go Jazz! Who wants to buy my 30-to-1 ticket for $200?

Clippers: I need the Clippers to win out to get my money back. This is possible with games against the Nuggets, Pelicans, and Lakers, but it will be tough given how they've been playing lately. Here's hoping that the Timberwolves keep losing, giving them a shot at the eighth seed and thus heavy incentive to win.

Brooklyn: Brooklyn also needs to win their final three. Two of those games are against the Bulls, who have a reason to tank (the Nets do not -- their pick belongs to Cleveland via Boston. Yes, the Nets are still paying for that horrible Pierce-Garnett trade). But the last game is against the Celtics, who might have a reason to win and who are a much better team even if they end up not caring much about that game. The big issue with the Celtics' incentives is that they are already a bit injury plagued -- even if they intend to rest their starters in the final game of the season, they're already shorthanded so they don't have a lot of players that they can put on the bench.

Detroit: Detroit needs to win two of its last four, but it is now eliminated from the playoffs, so the team's players are probably thinking more about golf than basketball. Still, they have games against the Mavericks, Grizzlies and Bulls, so I'm actually pretty hopeful about this one. Tonight's game against the Mavericks is an important one. Can't wait to walk into the bar and request to put this one on the screen!

On Monday, I'll publish an update of how things shook out over the weekend. At this point, it looks like my biggest key to profitability is whether the Warriors can (not?) win it all again.