BoxScore Geeks' 2014 Denver Nuggets Preview

The Numbers

  •  Average Seed
    10
  • 📉 Pessimist
    31.1 wins
  •  Realist
    39.6 wins
  • 📈 Optimist
    48.1 wins
 First Seed
 
1.0%
⋆ Division
 
5.8%
 Top 4
 
4.8%
👍 Over (42.0)
ğŸ‘Ž Under (42.0)
ğŸŽ€ Playoffs
 
27.2%

The Brief

Last season the Nuggets bounced back from having their best regular season in franchise history by missing the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. A lot of this was inept management. There was also some inept coaching. The Nuggets did their best to bring Nuggets fans back to the late 90s. Will this season look any better?

The Story

What happens when you lose two of your top players to injury, another to free agency, and a third to a stupid trade? You go from a franchise high 57 wins to 36 wins and no playoffs.

Last Year

  •  Actual Wins: 36
  •  Expected Wins: 35.2
  • ⚅ Lucky Wins: 3.0
Player Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Randy Foye 2,485 30 0.098 5.1
Ty Lawson 2,222 26 0.173 8.0
Kenneth Faried 2,178 24 0.208 9.4
Wilson Chandler 1,927 27 0.038 1.5
J.J. Hickson 1,859 25 0.099 3.8
Timofey Mozgov 1,770 28 0.118 4.4
Evan Fournier  1,503 21 0.006 0.2
Darrell Arthur 1,161 26 -0.095 -2.3
Nate Robinson 866 30 0.048 0.9
Aaron Brooks  841 29 0.021 0.4
Quincy Miller 789 21 -0.001 0
Jordan Hamilton  670 23 0.116 1.6
Andre Miller  570 38 0.146 1.7
Anthony Randolph  527 25 -0.014 -0.2
Jan Vesely 306 24 0.150 1.0
JaVale McGee 79 26 -0.213 -0.4

 Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

  • 35.2 total Wins Produced
  •  5 players leaving
    (4,111.0 minutes, 3.8 wins)

The Nuggets lost their general manager Masai Ujiri to free agency. In Toronto the Raptors managed to flip both Bargnani and Rudy Gay and become a good team again. The Nuggets decided the best move was to undo most of Masai's work, and did they ever! Andre Iguodala left the Nuggets in free-agency. It's easy to see why a veteran would ditch a team without a general manager or coach to go play for the Warriors. The Nuggets also lost Corey Brewer, which should have been a good thing. However, to replace Iguodala and Brewer they picked up Randy Foye and Nate Robinson, which wasn't even close in value. The Nuggets also inexplicably traded away Kosta Koufos for garbage. They then replaced Koufos with J.J. Hickson, who's skills overlapped with Kenneth Faried. In the end, the Nuggets were a hot mess.

This Year

  •  Projected Wins: 39.6
  •  Conference Rank: 12
  • % Playoffs: 27.2
Player Position Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Arron Afflalo  2.0 2,231.9 29 0.061 2.9
Ty Lawson 1.0 2,139.2 27 0.144 6.4
Kenneth Faried 4.0 1,993.5 25 0.161 6.7
Timofey Mozgov 5.0 1,990.5 29 0.086 3.6
Danilo Gallinari  3.0 1,984.7 27 0.135 5.6
J.J. Hickson 4.0 1,498.8 27 0.094 3.0
Randy Foye 2.0 1,482.3 31 0.079 2.4
Wilson Chandler 3.0 1,411.0 28 0.063 1.9
JaVale McGee 5.0 1,326.3 27 0.104 2.9
Gary Harris  2.0 1,002.0 0 0.096 2.0
Alonzo Gee  2.5 937.7 28 0.034 .7
Nate Robinson 1.5 822.0 31 0.094 1.6
Darrell Arthur 4.5 807.7 27 -0.050 -.8
Jusuf Nurkic  5.0 507.7 0 0.133 1.4
Quincy Miller 3.0 482.5 22 0.024 .2

 Indicates that the player is new to the team.

  • 📅 33.0 WP last year
    by these players
  • 🔀 6.3 WP (roster changes)
  • ⏲ .1 WP (age/experience)

The Nuggets did onething right in the offseason in ensuring Kenneth Faried stays on board. Also, at a less than max contract over five years, when the salary cap balloons, expect Faried's contract to be the best veteran deal for many years. If the Nuggets can also get lucky and get semi-healthy Gallinari and McGee to play some minutes, they'll improve. Arron Afflalo is a decent shooting guard. For whatever reason the Nuggets have been obsessed with overpaying older, mediorce guards the last two seasons. The Nuggets only real hope for improvement this season is if some of their older better players can come back healthy.

The Wrap

Faried and Lawson are a great way to start an NBA team. You just have to surround them with decent talent. Luckily, the Nuggets have the cap space to do that in future season. This year though? Expect a moderate improvement from last year. They may even stand a shot at the playoffs if Shaw uses some good rotations. I'm not holding my breath though.

Loading...