The Numbers
- NBA Rank: 12
Conference Rank: 5 
Brooklyn Nets
The woods are lovely, dark, and deep,
Robert Frost
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
The Brief
For the upcoming NBA season, the projected payroll of the Brooklyn Nets is $191 million dollars. That's more than three and a half times the minimum payroll for an NBA team this season. It is 75 million dollars more than the next highest nba payroll (Knicks). It is only $28 million behind the Dodgers and $10 million behind the Yankees for the highest payroll in sport.
That's just how Mikhail Prokhorov rolls. In his pursuit of building a global franchise/brand and establishing his team as the NBA's top dog in the richest sports market in the world, the Russian is sparing no expense. Will his spending lead to wins? That is the key in the battle for the hearts and minds of New Yorkers.
The Story
Our friend Prof. Berri, has written extensively about how salary does not correlate to wins in professional. In basketball in particular, scoring is the most significant factor in explaining player salary. What this means in practice is that simply throwing money at building a team and expecting wins is not a recipe for success. Cue the tape of James Dolan and Isaiah Thomas nodding their heads wildly.
Is that what the Nets have done here though? Not quite, there does seem to be an overarching strategy. We all need to understand the following facts:
Fact #1: Mikhail Prokhorov does not care about money. $191 million dollars is the kind of money he spends on entertainment.
Fact #2: The Nets have every intention of supplanting the Knicks as the number one basketball franchise in New York. The Barclay's Center (which Mikhail owns 45% of) is already the #1 venue in the US in ticket sales and #3 in the world. The Knicks just got told they need to leave MSG in ten years.
He wants all the bases to belong to him. He also appears to understand the link between winning and revenue. The strategy then has been to win now by exploiting the fact that he has deeper pockets than anyone to accrue a roster of highly paid but talented players. In essence, the Nets are trying to win by virtue of the fact that they are willing to pay 50% above sticker price for players.
Last Year
| Player | Minutes | Age | WP48 | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deron Williams | 2842 | 29 | .164 | 9.7 |
| Joe Johnson | 2642 | 32 | .061 | 3.4 |
| Brook Lopez | 2253 | 25 | .112 | 5.3 |
| Gerald Wallace | 2076 | 31 | .121 | 5.2 |
| Reggie Evans | 1967 | 33 | .273 | 11.2 |
| Andray Blatche | 1555 | 27 | .129 | 4.2 |
| C.J. Watson | 1521 | 29 | .116 | 3.7 |
| Keith Bogans | 1408 | 33 | .031 | .9 |
| Kris Humphries | 1191 | 29 | .130 | 3.2 |
| MarShon Brooks | 912 | 25 | .048 | .9 |
| Jerry Stackhouse | 544 | 38 | -.045 | -.5 |
| Mirza Teletovic | 499 | 28 | -.039 | -.4 |
| Tyshawn Taylor | 221 | 23 | -.202 | -.9 |
| Josh Childress | 100 | 30 | .071 | .1 |
| Tornike Shengelia | 93 | 22 | .040 | .1 |
| Kris Joseph | 30 | 24 | -.008 | 0 |
| Damion James | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.
We were very surprised by the Nets win total last year. We had the Nets projected as a terrible 33 win team and they shattered those expectations by 17 wins. The reason for this came down to two players: Brook Lopez and Reggie Evans. Lopez had spent two seasons being terrible and suddenly remembered how to rebound to the tune of 6 extra wins. Evans, who our numbers absolutely love, got the most minutes of his entire career to the tune of about 8 extra wins. The rest is down to some luck and Andray Blatche not being terrible.
The offseason brought the mega trade with the Celtics.
This Year
| Player | Position | Minutes | Age | WP48 | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brook Lopez | 5.0 | 2846 | 25 | .056 | 3.3 |
| Joe Johnson | 2.4 | 2662 | 32 | .060 | 3.3 |
| Deron Williams | 1.1 | 2283 | 29 | .130 | 6.2 |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 3.1 | 2203 | 32 | .199 | 9.1 |
| Paul Pierce | 3.2 | 1922 | 36 | .121 | 4.8 |
| Kevin Garnett | 4.5 | 1545 | 37 | .116 | 3.7 |
| Shaun Livingston | 1.3 | 1354 | 28 | .107 | 3.0 |
| Reggie Evans | 4.0 | 1180 | 33 | .228 | 5.6 |
| Andray Blatche | 4.6 | 965 | 27 | .036 | .7 |
| Jason Terry | 1.7 | 783 | 36 | .058 | .9 |
| Alan Anderson | 3.3 | 661 | 31 | -.064 | -.9 |
| Mason Plumlee | 5.0 | 515 | 23 | .015 | .2 |
| Mirza Teletovic | 5.0 | 388 | 28 | -.045 | -.4 |
| Tyshawn Taylor | 1.0 | 275 | 23 | -.184 | -1.1 |
| Tornike Shengelia | 2.8 | 92 | 22 | .063 | .1 |
Indicates that the player is new to the team.
The Nets offseason moves were fantastic on paper. They brought in two future Hall of Famers in Pierce and Kevin Garnett. They somehow managed to convince the fantastic Andrei Kirilenko to take a $7 million dollar paycut to come play for them (don't be surprised if members of his immediate family "win" the lottery in Russia or suddenly inherit some mines). They brought in Shaun Livingston who I love as a backup point guard and think has tremendous upside.
Why then do my numbers have this team regressing to 44 wins? The short answer is it's not 2008 or even 2010. I love KG and the Truth but at this point they're closer to the hall of fame than what got them there. This is the third oldest roster in the league and the oldest features Lebron and the second oldest we have at number 30 (Hello Kobe!). Injuries are a tremendous risk for this roster. Deron is already banged up. Kirilenko always, always gets hurt. Another major issue is the strong likelyhood of Brook Lopez regressing to 2011/2012 form. The fact that their leading win producer from last year, Reggie Evans, sees his minutes down by about 40% is just icing on the cake.
This is the kind of team where players get hurt during warmups.
Projected playoff lineup: KG, Pierce, Deron, AK47, Joe Johnson, Lopez, Evans and Terry. This Nets team is not really built for the regular season but for the playoffs it's a killer. If Jason Kidd can get them there and they're all healthy (a big if) this team can win it all. I just would not bet on it.
The Wrap
The Nets have a good team when healthy. I'm not expecting them to be healthy for long stretches of the season. There's also a real chance that everyone else in the Atlantic is terrible, they wrap it up in February and just rest everyone the rest of the way. I think 44 wins is a good number.
The Second Opinion Dre thinks it balances out.
I wanted to disagree with this post. There are a few places I think we've been pessimistic (Deron Williams and Brook Lopez) and a few I think we've been optimistic (Evans and AK47 keeping it up.) On the whole though, I think it balances out. The Nets have put together a roster that would have been fantastic in 2010. The Russian paid the "veteran premium" for this. Sadly, it came a few seasons too late. All that said, the promising fact is that the Nets are going after good players! And one benefit of going after marquee players is it may attract others to come along. Unlike Kobe, Paul Pierce and KG have shown they have some sway on the free market agency. If the Nets stay a playoff team, and Mikhail keeps throwing money around, I have to buy they'll get a major star in the next few years. The bar wasn't high to begin with, but consider the Nets the new basketball kings of New York.