The Celtics: The Coin Flip

The Numbers

NBA Rank: 16
Conference Rank: 8
Boston Celtics

First Seed

0.8%

Division

19.8%

Top 4

13.0%

Over (27.5)

94.5%

Under (27.5)

5.5%

Playoffs

53.4%

It is our choices, Harry, that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities.
J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets

The Brief

In the 2006-7 season, the Boston Celtics had a young, promising roster surrounding a future Celtic legend (Pierce) . They could have elected to compete. Instead they made a choice. A choice to not try very hard so that they could get a better shot at one of the two projected franchise players in the upcoming draft. A choice that went wrong. Instead of getting one of the top two picks, the Celtics were left with the fifth pick. So Danny Ainge made another choice. Boston converted that pick and some assets into future Hall of Famer Ray Allen. They went out and converted their promising young big man ("Big Al" Jefferson), some young players, and some first rounders into a top five all time power forward: Kevin Garnett.

From that, Boston fans got two finals, one banner and five seasons of championship-level basketball. With a little better luck (in the form of better health, resigning Posey or Tony Allen, bringing Birdman on board, or trading for Harden and not Jeff Green), it quite possibly could have been two or three banners.

In the 2013-14 season, Danny Ainge faces a very similar choice. Seems like a no-brainer right? It's not quite that straightforward.

The Story

People forget how intricate the series of events that led to the Boston championship run was. Big AL had to fall to fifteenth in 2004. Rondo had to fall to 21 in 2006 draft. Howard Shultz had to fail to get an arena deal or a local buyer in Seattle, or the Sonics may not have traded Ray Allen. The ping pong balls had to go the wrong way in the 2007 draft. KG had to decide to give up on the Timberwolves.

It all had to go right within a very narrow tolerance to get everything to come off perfectly. A little to the left and the Celtics wind up with KD and most likely the KG trade still goes off. A little bit to the right and Oden comes to town and who knows what happens.

The point, however, is that losing on purpose while keeping all their young assets in place worked for the Celtics. The key was that they kept their centerpiece player (Pierce) on the shelf, ran all their young assets out to figure out who to keep (Rondo, Perk, Tony Allen, Powe and Brian Scalabrine) and showcased their key trade piece (the young big Al Jefferson). They also waited for the inevitable yearly tradition of a team or teams going into full meltdown mode and swooping to strip their rosters of their franchise player.

For those skeptical that there will always be a team willing to trade a franchise player for pennies on the dollar, here are a few names: Shaq, Sheed, Phoenix Joe Johnson, Toronto Vince, Tmac, Shawn Marion, KG, Ray, Pau, Kidd, CP3, Harden, Dwight. I could go on but I don't think I need to. There's always a team willing to be the patsy. It looks like Danny has a very similar play in the making.

Last Year

Player	Minutes	Age	WP48	Wins
Paul Pierce	2575	36	.112	6.0
Jeff Green	2252	27	.097	4.6
Brandon Bass	2239	28	.069	3.2
Jason Terry	2124	36	.111	4.9
Kevin Garnett	2022	37	.086	3.6
Courtney Lee	1941	28	.132	5.4
Avery Bradley	1435	23	-.011	-.3
Rajon Rondo	1423	27	.204	6.1
Jared Sullinger	892	21	.137	2.5
Chris Wilcox	830	30	.184	3.2
Jordan Crawford	582	25	.040	1.4
Leandro Barbosa	513	30	.045	.5
Jason Collins	330	34	-.080	-.6
Terrence Williams	318	26	.092	.6
Shavlik Randolph	198	29	.237	1.0
D.J. White	86	26	.119	.2
Fab Melo	36	24	-.142	-.1
Kris Joseph	24	24	-.473	-.2
Jarvis Varnado	18	25	-.135	-.2
Darko Milicic	5	28	-1.074	-.1

Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

People kind of gloss over the fact that by last season, the Celtics were a .500 team and the last gasp of the championship run had died on the court in game seven of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals in Miami. Pierce and KG were running on muscle memory. Jason Terry was brought in to replace Ray Allen, and wasn't coming close. Jared Sullinger was extremely exciting as a draft steal but was also out thanks to injury by the second half of the year. Finally, the Rondo injury was the killer.

I think without those last two injuries, muscle memory may have been enough for one last futile duel with Miami.

In the offseason, Danny pressed the reset button, aided and abetted by our favorite Russian Billionaire out in Brooklyn. It was the right thing to do. I will miss KG and Pierce but we weren't winning the title. Adding the four number one picks from Brooklyn, the Celtics now own nine (!) 1st round picks in the next five drafts. Nobody is even close.

This Year

Player	Position	Minutes	Age	WP48	Wins
Jeff Green	3.3	2735	27	.052	2.9
Jared Sullinger	4.3	2475	21	.158	8.2
Rajon Rondo	1.0	2346	27	.224	10.9
Courtney Lee	2.3	2264	28	.098	4.6
Gerald Wallace	3.4	1975	31	.110	4.5
Avery Bradley	1.5	1587	23	.042	1.4
Brandon Bass	4.2	1391	28	.075	2.2
Kris Humphries	4.0	1213	29	.182	4.6
Kelly Olynyk	5.0	992	22	.046	1.0
MarShon Brooks	2.2	804	25	.037	.6
Phil Pressey	1.0	679	22	-.005	-.1
Keith Bogans	2.5	530	33	.056	.6
Jordan Crawford	1.9	399	25	-.006	0
Vitor Faverani	4.0	282	25	.056	.3

Indicates that the player is new to the team.

And yet...we've projected nearly 40 wins.

This is actually an interesting roster with some promising young pieces and some very intriguing trade assets. On the young and promising side we have: Sullinger, who had a good rookie year, Olynik, who might end up being more attractive than good (i.e. he might score a lot) and Faverani, of whom I expected little, but who has played quite well in the preseason. Avery and Lee are next level defensive wings who would be a great fit as a second unit or defensive specialist on a contender. Wallace, Bass and Humphries are veteran productive bigs who can produce and, again, would be great pieces on a contender.

Jeff Green is mostly awful, but has games where he suddenly decides he's a top ten player (look I can't explain it either).

Then of course we have Rondo, who's one of a handful of guys in the league that can say that he's gone mano a mano with Lebron's fastball in a playoff game.

Throw in what looks to be a great young coach and when you actually go through what this roster would look like healthy, you realize an eight seed is really within their reach.

Projected playoff lineup: Rondo, Green, Lee, Wallace, Faverani or Kelly, Bradley, Bass. This is a group that could win at least one game in round one versus Miami. I'm just extremely skeptical of all those guys being on the C's at the end of the year.

The Wrap

It's kind of ridiculous that the Celtics, a season removed from coming this close to winning it all, have nine first rounders in the next five years. Throw in the fact that they have a virtual supermarket of assets for all your contending team needs and $17 million in expiring contracts, and Danny Ainge has all sorts of options.

I think the right play is to wait and let this young team have some fun. If the season goes well, Rondo comes back and the right desperate trade partner comes along (say Denver with Faried, LA with Pau or the Timberwolves with Kevin Love), you pounce and compete now. If it doesn't, you shut it down after the break and improve your draft position. I'd keep Rondo (a la Pierce), focus on building up my flashy big (Kelly Olynyk in the Big Al role?) and possibly look to put together a package of attractive assets for a pre draft trade.

I think it comes down to a series of unpredictable events. I trust Ainge to make the right choices though.

Rondo, Love, Pau would be kind of cool right?

My usual rule is as follows: "Trust Arturo, except when he's talking about the Celtics." Yet, I found myself nodding most of this article. The Celtics had seen the last of their stars great play. It's a truism, but you don't want your best player to retire on your team. The Celtics have managed to stay playoff worthy while also stockpiling assets. It's a good place to be.

The problem, of course, is that's the future. That requires smart management executing perfectly. And that's always a risk. Take Jeff Green for instance. There's no reason any franchise should be hanging their hat on him, and yet Boston did. If they keep making moves like that, it won't matter how many draft picks they have. That said, Arturo's right, they're in a spot to compete, and a spot to improve. If your team isn't already set to contend, you can't ask for more.

I had to chime in here, too. This team is a real enigma. It has all the potential to be an "over-achiever" that wins Brad Stevens the coach of the year award as a rookie coach, but unfortunately, there is a ton of room for Boston to implode, either on purpose or accidentally.

For instance, the team should roll out a lineup of Rondo (when healthy), Lee, Wallace, Humphries and Sullinger, with Green off the bench and playing the 3, but instead they might very well roll out a lineup of Rondo, Bradley, Lee, Green, and Sullinger. And they might do something stupid like keep Rondo on the bench all year.

And no, I have no idea what Arturo is smoking with that playoff lineup, either. Faverani is a starter and Sullinger doesn't crack the top 10? Huh!?

The Postscript Arturo has more to say

To be fair, it was late and my internet connection was breaking up. Sullinger should be starting in that playoff lineup and I'm hoping that I'm having an oracle moment which sees him traded. As to Kelly or Faverani? One of them is going to be the starting center for this team and Faverani is getting some buzz.

Arturo Galletti on Oct 25th, 2013