The 2015/16 NBA Season is almost upon us, and this year, Boxscore Geeks' season previews are going to be a little different. Take a look at my preview of the Atlantic division for more background on how we are doing things differently.
In this article, I'm going to swing over to the other coast and take a look at the Pacific division.
5th. The Los Angeles Lakers
Additions: Anthony Brown, Brandon Bass, D'Angelo Russell, Larry Nance Jr., Lou Williams, Marcelo Huertas, Metta World Peace, Roy Hibbert. And, for all intents and purposes, Julius Randle. The Lakers still need to cut one player as of this writing, though.
Subtractions: Jeremy Lin, Jordan Hill, Wesley Johnson, Xavier Henry, Wayne Ellington, Ronnie Price, Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis
Vegas Over/Under: 29.5
My take: I'll take the under.
The Lakers are going to be pretty bad. Though they have promising pieces in Randle, and Russell, it would be crazy to bet on both of them being average or better NBA players right out of the gate, but both will get a lot of playing time.
Kobe is 37 years old, which is bad enough, but he's coming off two bad injuries, one of which is the type that players pretty much never come back the same from at any age. I think the relevant question with Kobe is not whether he can "carry" this team to extra wins, but how much damage he will do. If he insists on being the team's alpha shooter, he will do a lot of damage. In any case, seeing Lou Williams and Kobe Bryant try to play with only one ball should make for some interesting highlights.
I would not expect Hibbert to be a big savior here. He's really only had one good season. At what point do we simply accept that he has already reached his potential?
4th. The Sacramento Kings
Additions: Caron Butler, Duje Dukan, James Anderson, Kosta Koufos, Marco Belinelli, Quincy Acy, Rajon Rondo, Seth Curry, Willie Cauley-Stein
Subtractions: Reggie Evans, Ryan Hollins, Ray McCallum, Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson, Andre Miller, Carl Landry, David Wear, Sim Bhullar, Derrick Williams, Quincy Miller
Vegas Over/Under: 30.5
My take: Ugh. Flip a coin.
On the one hand, there are some good players here. On the other, most of those good players have a certain Jekyll and Hyde quality about them. Will Cousins play defense? Will Rajon Rondo work better under George Karl than he did during his disastrous stay in Dallas? Will Kosta Koufos get any playing time? Will Belinelli be efficient in a non-Spurs offense?
The Kings let a few key reserve players go (Landry, Miller, and Evans were all solid role players) and didn't do a lot to replace them. It's hard to see this team winning more than 30 games in the tough west.
But then...you adjust your goggles a bit and think... Well, what if the old Rondo shows up? The one who could go for a triple double in steals, rebounds, and assists? What if Cousins actually tries? What if Koufos plays power forward and gets heavy minutes? What if Belinelli keeps shooting 40% from three?
This is why previews are hard.
3rd. Phoenix Suns
Additions: Cory Jefferson, Devin Booker, Jon Leuer, Mirza Teletovic, Ronnie Price, Sonny Weems, Tyson Chandler
Subtractions: Gerald Green, Marcus Morris (and maybe Markief), Seth Curry, Brandan Wright, Earl Barron
Vegas Over/Under: 36.5
My take: The Suns' medical staff might keep Chandler on the court long enough to win the over.
This is "Previews are hard: part 2". The Suns are the classic reason that I have grown to hate over bets. On Paper, this looks like a good candidate to win more than 40 games, because Tyson Chandler is one of the best big men in the NBA -- when he's healthy. But I'd never actually put money on that -- if Bledsoe and/or Chandler miss much more than 15 games each, 40 wins will be hard to come by indeed. From a long-term perspective, the move is curious, because it cuts into Alex Len's playing time, but in the short term, having Chandler just produces more wins.
I think the drama that played out around Markief Morris was a bit funny (honestly, he wasn't good enough to hold out), but ultimately didn't matter much. It's fine that he's playing, but he won't move the needle much either way. Jon Leuer should be an effective role player.
It will be interesting to see Brandon Knight for a full year in Phoenix. Playing for Jason Kidd, he finally showed signs of figuring some things out. I like him a lot better playing off the ball next to Eric Bledsoe than on the ball, and I will be curious to see how Hornacek uses him.
2nd. Los Angeles Clippers
Additions: Branden Dawson, Cole Aldrich, Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Pablo Prigioni, Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson
Subtractions: Jared Cunningham, Lester Hudson, Hedo Turkoglu, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ekpe Udoh, Jordan Farmar, Reggie Bullock, Matt Barnes, Nate Robinson, Spencer Hawes, Dahntay Jones, Jordan Hamilton, Glen Davis
Vegas Over/Under: 56.5
My take: 57 wins? Sounds about right.
In theory, this team has gotten stronger; its core of Paul-Griffin-Jordan-Reddick remains, and they've added a ton of role players that improve the bench. So, since the team won 57 games last year with this core, one might suggest that the shored-up bench is worth a few games, right?
But then...some of these additions are big question marks. Josh Smith is almost guaranteed to get more minutes than he deserves. Pablo Prigioni is ancient, and although his game isn't predicated on athleticism, you have to wonder when his body will just no longer be NBA-ready. On must also wonder how many miles Pierce has left, or whether Lance Stephenson can move on mentally from whatever the hell that was last year.
Finally, since it is Doc Rivers' favorite subject, let's talk about luck. The five wins from 55 to 60 aren't quite the same as the five wins from 50 to 55. Going from "good" to "contender" and then from "contender" to "champion" requires more than just linear improvement. What happens if a star player sprains an ankle? If the schedule has too many back-to-backs against teams on a roll? It's likely that upgrading your bench is enough to bolster you a few wins, but there's always a lot of luck involved. I would not want to bet the over on 56 wins because it is essentially a big parlay that four players all stay healthy all year long. I've made this mistake in the past when betting on the Spurs.
1st. Golden State Warriors
Additions: Ian Clark, Jason Thompson, Kevon Looney (not likely to play before the all-star break, if at all).
Subtractions: Justin Holiday, David Lee
Vegas Over/Under: 60.5
My take: I want to bet the over...but I won't.
It's good that we just spent a paragraph talking about luck, because, again, on paper, this is a 65 win team. These are the defending champions, coming off one of the best regular seasons of all time (based on point differential), and they are only losing one role player. But then there's that luck thing again. All five starters and Iguodala have to stay healthy all season long for this team to put up 65 wins again. That could absolutely happen, but I wouldn't place a big bet on it.
As for the roster changes: David Lee will absolutely be missed. Whatever you might think of his defense, he was an efficient scorer and a good rebounder, which are both pretty valuable if you can get them in the third guy off your bench. Jason Thompson is unlikely to fill that production hole. Once upon a time, he was a promising rookie who looked like he was on his way to becoming an efficient scoring rebounder in the mold of JJ Hickson, but he's never shown more than flashes of that since the 11/12 season. Now, at the age of 29, I don't expect him to change much.
Having said all this...the Warriors are still definitely the team to beat. If that injury luck holds, they are the most likely candidates to win both the Pacific and the Western Conference as a whole.