The 2015/16 NBA Season is almost upon us. Usually, this is the most stressful time of year at Boxscore Geeks. The pressure to right 30 articles in about three weeks almost always gets to me. On top of that, I'm usually traveling to Las Vegas.

This year, Vegas fell through. Or, more accurately, I won't be in Vegas until November, when Vegas will no longer let me place over/under bets, so...well, I'll be honest, this took a little bit of the wind out of my sails. Sure, there is still an intellectual challenge in trying to put a "portfolio" together, but It's a bit like playing a $20 poker game with friends; I don't take it too seriously, given that I'm used to playing games where that will just barely pay for the blinds.

So, this year's portfolio will be a bit different. I'm going to make 30 pretty unscientific over/under bets. The only skin I am personally going to have in this game is a steak dinner through a bet with a friend of mine -- whoever gets the most over/unders right gets wined and dined during the playoffs by the other.

The season previews are, as a consequence, going to be a lot less about prediction and a lot more about "what to look out for". Over the course of the next couple of days, I'll be putting up previews for each division, starting with...

The Atlantic Division

The Atlantic is going to be messy. It's probably going to be a dogfight between the Raptors and the Celtics for the top, with the other three teams fighting for the bottom spot. With that in mind, here are my picks, in reverse order:

5th. The Philadelphia 76ers

Additions: Um...it's hard to say. There are still 20 players on this roster (counting the injured Embiid and Wroten). Beyond Jahlil Okafor, whose job is pretty damn secure, who can say which players will get cut in the next few days? Key additions are Okafor, Kendall Marshall, Nik Stauskas, and Carl Landry (although Landry will probably be in trade or buyout talks all year, since he won't be in the team's long-term plans).

Subtractions: Chris Johnson, Ishmael Smith, Thomas Robinson, Jason Richardson, Brandon Davies, Glenn Robinson III, Alexey Shved, Malcolm Lee,Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, K.J. McDaniels, and probably somebody I forgot.

Vegas Over/Under: 21.5

My take: I think the over is attractive, but "the process" might get in the way.

The important thing to note about the 76ers is that Nerlens Noel was well on his way to becoming a truly special player last season. Around Christmas, he started to adjust to the pace of the game, and started to become a tremendous defensive force, putting up a rare combination of blocks, rebounds, and steals that got people digging around in historical databases to find comparisons. And the good news is that, for this particular combination of skills, it really shouldn't matter much whether he plays center or power forward, so he's a good theoretical fit next to Okafor.

Speaking of Okafor, he does not have to be a very good rookie in order to be better than some of the guys who logged heavy minutes at the 4 and 5 last year, like Brandon Davies, Luc Mbah a Moute, or Henry Sims. The big issue with him is going to be his work ethic.

Kendall Marshall is a promising addition. The 76ers point guards were painfully awful last year. The "least awful" was Canaan, because he scored with about average efficiency.

The over/under here will depend on who plays. If Okafor is a promising rookie, They could be fielding actual 5-man units with 3 or more competent NBA players. But then, there are still a ton of bad players on this roster. I'm inclined to believe in the over, but all it takes is the decision to rest Noel for more than a few games to sabotage that.

4th. The New York Knicks

Additions: Arron Afflalo, Derrick Williams, Jerian Grant, Kevin Seraphin, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle O'Quinn, Robin Lopez, Sasha Vujacic (nope, not a typo).

Subtractions: Quincy Acy, Andrea Bargnani, Cole Aldrich, Tim Hardaway Jr., Alexey Shved, Samuel Dalembert, Jason Smith

Vegas Over/Under: 31.5

My take: I like the under a lot, but the rookies will both be wild cards.

As many of you know, our metrics do not value Carmelo Anthony as a franchise player. He's simply not efficient enough as a scorer for the volume of shots he takes. Even in his best seasons, he hasn't been worth his salary. Now, he's 31, and coming off of a major injury. Traditionally, the smart money is to bet on a player to under-perform in these situations.

Robin Lopez is a great addition, and so far, I love what I see from Jerian Grant. What I don't love, though, is the triangle, especially with this personnel, or any of Derek Fisher's in-game decisions. I also don't really see how this team is going to defend anybody, unless Porzingis turns out to be a surprise.

3rd. The Brooklyn Nets

Additions: Andrea Bargnani, Chris McCullough, Dahntay Jones, Donald Sloan, Justin Harper, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Shane Larkin, Thomas Robinson, Wayne Ellington, Willie Reed (but the roster is still at 17 players right now).

Subtractions: Darius Morris, Cory Jefferson, Jorge Gutierrez, Jerome Jordan, Brandon Davies, Andrei Kirilenko, Earl Clark, Alan Anderson, Mirza Teletovic, Mason Plumlee

Vegas Over/Under: 28.5

My take: I like the under here too, but not quite as much as New York's.

The problem with all these teams that I like the under on is that they have to play each other a lot. Brooklyn is a terrible team, but honestly, since they get to play 8 games against Philly and New York, it's hard to pick them to be that much worse than 28 wins.

The team is significantly worse in the frontcourt than last year. Garnett (traded at the deadline last year) was old, but certainly still effective, and Plumlee was an underrated guy who was a great rebounder and didn't need the ball to be effective. Then there is Bargnani. He is quite literally the worst big man in the NBA. If he gets significant minutes, he'll easily wipe away any wins that Thomas Robinson might produce.

Finally, there's the backcourt. Williams and Johnson were both woefully overpaid, but they were still competent NBA starters. It's virtually impossible that Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington can replace their production.

Brooklyn got worse at nearly every position. And they are not in a good position to rebuild, other than through free agency, so this could be a bleak year for the franchise.

 

2nd. The Boston Celtics

Additions: Amir Johnson, David Lee, Jordan Mickey, R.J. Hunter, Terry Rozier

Subtractions: Tayshaun Prince, Jeff Green, Jameer Nelson, Brandon Bass, Luigi Datome, Phil Pressey, Gerald Wallace

Vegas Over/Under: 42.5

My take: ...meh? I guess I'll take the... over?

I have no idea what to think about the Celtics' offseason. They had what I thought was an awful draft, but they let a lot of mediocre players go during free agency, and I really like the Amir Johnson and David Lee signings.

The Celtics have lots of capable players, but they are spread thin. It's hard to play Smart and Thomas together, and they have a logjam at power forward. At shooting guard and small forward, they have a ton of mediocre-at-best talent competing for minutes.

It's a very weird team. I think the over/under is about right, but again, this is because they are in the Atlantic. Put them in the central and you could take away a few wins, put them anywhere in the west and they'd probably be a 30 win team. A lot of mismatched parts here, and even though I like Brad Stevens a lot, this team is still one that is waiting for the future. They remind me a bit of Morey's old Houston teams. They are struggling to stay competitive, and waiting for an opportunity to pounce in free agency or the trade market to upgrade to a superstar at a couple of positions.

1st. Toronto Raptors

Additions: Anthony Bennett, Bismack Biyombo, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, DeMarre Carroll, Luis Scola, Norman Powell

Subtractions: Amir Johnson, Greg Stiemsma, Chuck Hayes, Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Landry Fields

Vegas Over/Under: 45.5

My take: I like the over.

The Raptors are the safe pick to win the Atlantic. Losing Amir Johnson will hurt, but I absolutely love the Biyombo signing, Cory Joseph is a good replacement backup PG, DeMarre Carroll is a strong addition at small forward, which was a weak spot last year, Delon Wright was a great pick, and...did I mention they are in the Atlantic? And they get to play 12 games against the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets?

Then there is Kyle Lowry. After a strong 13/14 campaign, and a good start to 14/15, Lowry really struggled in the second half of last season. During the offseason, he lost some wait, and has so far this year looked amazing. While I don't think his 87% true shooting in the preseason is likely to carry over, I do think it is realistic to expect a strong "comeback" year from Lowry.

I think the team will flirt with 50 wins, barring injuries.

 

So, that's the Atlantic. What are your thoughts?