The 2015 Boxscore Geeks NBA Preview: The Northwest Division

  

The 2015/16 NBA Season is almost upon us, and this year, Boxscore Geeks' season previews are going to be a little different. Take a look at my preview of the Atlantic division for more background on how we are doing things differently.

In this final preview, we're going to turn our attention to the Northwest division.

Min Minnesota Timberwolves

Additions: Andre Miller, Damjan Rudez, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nemanja Bjelica, Tayshaun Prince, Tyus Jones

Subtractions: Lorenzo Brown, Troy Daniels, Robbie Hummel, Anthony Bennett, Chase Budinger, Gary Neal, Justin Hamilton

Vegas Over/Under: 27.5

My take: I want to believe in the over...but I'll pass.

I'm actually going to write a whole article on this team in the next few days. On paper, I feel like this is a 35-win team easily. It has real problems, yes, but a full season of Kevin Garnett (even at 20 minutes a game) and a full season of Ricky Rubio is probably worth more than 10 extra wins vs. last year. And that's before you factor in that Wiggins will be better, Lavine will probalby graduate from "awful" to "bad", Anthony Bennett is gone, Andre Miller and Tayshaun Prince are both competent NBA players...I feel like this is an actual basketball team.

On top of that, I'm extremely optimistic that KAT will be a productive NBA player in his first season, and so will Bjelica.

Now, this team still has big problems -- Kevin Martin (who can't play defense) and Damjan Rudez (who won't get minutes) are it's only decent long-range shooters (unless Wiggins develops into one), Adrian Payne looks worse than Bennett did, and Tyus Jones looks really raw. They're perimeter defense is going to be just plain awful all year -- they're guards and wings are either too young and inexperienced or too old and slow. Rubio is the only decent perimeter defender on the team. Wiggins may develop into a great defender, but he's still too raw.

Then, there's the problem that they have little incentive to win -- their first round pick is top-12 protected; it's hard to believe that management will try hard enough to win to put that pick in jeopardy. And the Timberwolves have already been not-very-subtle about how winning now is not high on their priority list. See, for example, Mitchell's comments about starting Lavine over Martin, or his inclination to use Lavine as the backup point guard, despite the fact that a) Lavine is terrible at point guard and b) the Timberwolves have 3 point guards not named "Lavine" on the roster.

Finally, there is the devastating loss of Flip Saunders. I was a pretty vocal critic of Flip the Coach and of Flip the GM, but everybody loved Flip the Personality. Who knows how his death will affect the team? It could galvanize the team into a competitive frenzy, or it could suck the wind out of their sails. It's impossible to predict.

All in all, I don't like the over or the under. I guess I'll take the over, just because that will make watching the games more fun.

Den Denver Nuggets

Additions: Emmanuel Mudiay, Mike Miller, Nikola Jokic

Subtractions: Ian Clark, Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson, Jamaal Franklin

Vegas Over/Under: 26.5

My take: Ugh. Guess I will take the over -- Denver's home court advantage is usually worth a few wins.

This is very much a bad team, but there's definitely hope that Gallo is back, and between him and Faried, there's a real chance that the team wins a few games that they should not, just by virtue of playing in a gym that's a mile above sea level against opponents who just got off a plane.

I'm also hopeful that Will Barton has started to figure things out in the NBA, and that he'll blossom with playing time. I'll never understand Denver's infatuation with Wilson Chandler, and especially of playing "small ball" with Chandler at the 4.

This is one of those situations where I'm either going to be right, and look like a genius, or I am going to be really wrong, and Denver will "compete" for the first overall pick. I think the line is pretty accurate, so I think this is another team you could flip a coin on.

Por Portland Trail Blazers

Additions: Al-Farouq Aminu, Cliff Alexander, Ed Davis, Gerald Henderson, Luis Montero, Mason Plumlee, Maurice Harkless, Noah Vonleh, Pat Connaughton

Subtractions: Steve Blake, Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews, Alonzo Gee, Arron Afflalo, Dorell Wright, Joel Freeland, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge

Vegas Over/Under: 26.5

My take: Might be the best "over" on the board.

I am not going to understand the pessimism around this team. Yes, it's true that between Matthews, Batum, Lopez, and Aldridge, a lot of wins left town. But unlike most teams that push the rebuild button, Portland hasn't gone nuclear. I don't think this is a playoff team by any means, but they managed to bring in a lot of talent to replace the guys who left.

On the wing, they've added Aminu and Harkless, and while neither are great shooters, both are solid defenders, and Aminu in particular is one of the best rebounding small forwards around. In the front court, Mason Plumlee and Ed Davis are both solid contributors, and I'm really excited at the prospect of seeing Davis get minutes.

The shooting is a real problem -- aside from Lillard and McCollum, there isn't much outside shooting on this roster at all, and that's going to muck up the spacing in ugly ways. And there is real concern that Lillard, who has trouble concentrating on defense even when the team is winning, takes a lot of possessions off on the defensive end. But I still think this team will get to 30 wins easily.

Uth Utah Jazz

Additions: Jeff Withey, Raul Neto, Tibor Pleiss, Trey Lyles

Subtractions: Grant Jerrett, Bryce Cotton, Jack Cooley, Jeremy Evans

Vegas Over/Under: 40.5

My take: Probably a solid over, although it's close.

At one point last year, Rudy Gobert asked who we all thought the Defensive Player of the Year was. Oh, the irony.

While it's true that Gobert has looked a little tired in the preseason, I would not sleep on this team. The list of shot-blockers with more blocks than fouls in a season is short, and full of hall of famers or DPOY players. What Rudy did last year was truly incredible.

After the Kanter trade, the Jazz had the best defense in the NBA (and it wasn't particularly close), and the team won at a 50-win pace from there on out. Now, it's true that some teams were sleeping on Gobert, and took it strong at him far more than they should have, but this isn't really a coincidence, and Favors is also very strong defensively.

The Jazz perimeter players also take great advantage of Gobert's and Favors' rim protection to hedge better against the 3-point shot. Utah's opponents shot 36% from beyond the arc last season (which was bad), but they only allowed opponents to shoot 20 per game (which is very good). But those numbers are for the whole season, including the games that Kanter played more than Gobert. I wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers improve a little bit, with an entire season playing in front of Gobert.

Finally, Utah enjoys a similar home-court advantage to Denver -- opposing teams have a ton of trouble adjusting to the high sea level, and this is usually worth an extra couple of wins every year.

Okc Oklahoma City Thunder

Additions: Cameron Payne, Josh Huestis, and, sort of, Kevin Durant

Subtractions: Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones

Vegas Over/Under: 57.5

My take: The under. You know why, right?

So, last year, mostly without Kevin Durant, this team won 45 games, on the back of Russell Westbrook's ridiculous production. But let's not count out Enes Kanter, either. Sure, he still didn't play a lick of defense, but if you compare Kanter's production in Utah and OKC, it's like night and day. In OKC, he grabbed a lot more rebounds, and was just behind Durant in true shooting %.

If you get 70 games out of Kevin Durant instead of 27, it seems like 60 wins is automatic, right?

Well, are you asking me as a gambler or as an analyst? Because, yeah, as an analyst, I think this is a 60-win team. They are deep, they have a former MVP, a guy who looked like an MVP candidate last year, and Scott Brooks is no longer around to insert Kendrick Perkins into the game to keep things fair for the other team.

But...you know...gambling. Remember how Kevin Durant got hurt? That could happen again. Remember how Westbrook got hurt too? What if Ibaka gets hurt and the team has no interior defense at all?

With teams like this, the under is a bad bet because, you know, holy cow this is a good team, but the over is an equally bad bet because, holy cow there's a lot of things that can go wrong that make the difference between 60 wins and 55. It's just one of those bets you should pass on because, if I had to guess a win total for this team, it would be....about 58 wins, dammit.

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