Now... how do you work? Why is there never a big red button?

– The Doctor, Day of the Doctor

Everybody does playoff picks. That's boring. (Editor's Note – don't forget to be boring and make your own picks!)

My ongoing mission is to give you predictions and opinions that are grounded in proper science and, and I like to walk you through my process of getting at the actual answer. I do it for multiple reasons. I love basketball and I want to do it for myself, but I also love the process. Laying out a difficult question and attacking it with the scientific method is a passion of mine – why else would I spend a good 40 hours crunching the numbers?

 

That is the full slate of probability for every first round series of the 2014 NBA playoffs.

Now, let's talk about the background like every proper scientist should.

The Method

The method really has three parts:

• Setting the player Value
• Projecting Minute Allocation
• Running the Playoff Model

One important note is that playoff experience matters. I have been pointing this out for a while. Basically, playoff vets get favorable calls. To account for that bias, I've given those teams that feature experienced playoff performers a 4% boost (or about half of the basic homecourt). This is forever to be known as the Sacramento Discrepancy (for this particular first round you could call it the Brooklyn Edge).

Additionally, a similar effect is seen for an outsized coaching advantage. This one is known as the George Karl Effect (as in "Oh my God, is that Dwane Casey's music?!").

For setting the player value, I ended up calculating the ADJP48 (Raw unadjusted Wins Produced, go here for more details) for the season for every player and adjusting it to take out the effects of homecourt advantage, schedule, and pace. Basically, I had to do game by game adjustements to get to unbiased values. This is particularly important this year because there are some very significant differences in schedule and pace to be accounted for. Don't worry, you'll get to see these values very soon.

The next bit is the tricky part. You have to guess at what the playoff minute allocation will be for each team. The key idea here is the half baked notion.The half baked notion is this: what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what gets you the trophy. What's the difference? Minute allocation and how wins are affected by that allocation. We continuously hear terms like playoff rotation and playoff minutes thrown around near playoff time. When we take a look at the data, we'll see that the pundits may just be right (hell has officially frozen over).

The half baked notion tells us that a good deep team filled with average and above average players will get you in the playoffs, but to get far in the playoffs you need your wins to be concentrated in your Top 6.

To illustrate, let's look at the regular season data. I'm using all the data from every season since the merger. I will be ranking the players on each roster by minutes played and then allocation wins accordingly. The data looks like this:

A few interesting points from this table:

• Your starting five account for 82% of your wins in the regular season.
• Your second unit is important over the course of an 82 game regular season, accounting for 18% of your wins
• After that, everybody else is statistically meaningless.

Now let's look at the playoff data. Again, I'm using all the data from every season since the merger. I will be ranking the players on each roster by minutes played and then allocation wins accordingly. The data looks like this:

• Your starting five account for 94% of your wins in the playoffs.
• Only the first guy of your bench matters accounting for 5% of your wins
• After that, everybody else is statistically meaningless.

Does the pattern hold if I sample more recent playoff data?

Yes it does.

You throw all that in a blender and you get your projected lineups (and you'll note I threw in those unbiased player ratings as well):

You'll note that I threw in full season, pre-trade deadline, and post-trade deadline into the model. Also keep in mind that this is my best guess. At this point we're trying to read the minds of some real luminaries (hi there Scotty Brooks and Mark Jackson!), so your mileage may vary.

It will get easier in Round 2 of course. The compiled result looks like so:

The last part is to fire up the math, calculate win probabilities, and feed it to my model. I am not posting the whole thing here, but I will give it to you in picture form.

The Picks:

There was a point in the season where I thought some of these series might be unwatchable. I don't anymore. Good job Eastern Conference teams! Let's start there.

Eastern Conference:

 

#1 Indiana Pacers vs #8 Atlanta Hawks

I spent way too much time on what should be an easy series to pick . It's a #1 versus #8...right? The problem is that the Pacers are the worst team in the playoffs after the trade deadline. Lucky for them, the Hawks are the second worse. Pacers also have a coaching edge and a playoff experience edge. This is still way closer than it should be.

Model says: Pacers in 7 (53% win probability).

Arturo says:Pacers in 7. But how do the Hawks have a 47% chance to win this? For shame, basketball jesus.

XFactor: Horford comes out of nowhere and shows up for game 3. If that happens, all bets are off.

 

#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats

I honestly feel bad for the Bobcats. They would have a real shot against the Pacers. But with the Heat it will take a catastrophic injury to one of the Big Three to make it a series. The Heat are really competing against themselves and the grind of a fourth Finals run. This will not be a sweep (in the Big Three era, Miami has only swept a Bucks team that may be the worst playoff team of my life) and I think the Bobcats will keep these games competitive.

The Heat get the experience and coaching edge here.

Model says: Heat in 5 (96.8% Win probability)

Arturo says: Heat in 5

XFactor: Is Michael Jordan eligible?

 

#3 Toronto Raptors vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets:

The Raptors have been the fifth-best team in the league after the trade deadline and they have homecourt...but they have history going against them. The Nets are not bad either (8th-best post-trade deadline), they have a metric ton of playoff experience, and they are also the only New York team in the playoffs (and that can subtly influence officiating. As much as I love the Raptors and how hard they play every night, this is a terrible reward for the third seed. I would have favored them in any other scenario. For neutral parties this series will be fun to watch, but I get the feeling that Raptor Nation may have some issues with the officiating.

The Nets get the experience and coaching edge here.

Model says: Nets in 6 (51.4% Win probability for Nets)

Arturo says: Nets in 6, but Raps in 7 is very close.

XFactor: Are we getting KG or Zombie KG? The Nets have been very good without him and a rusty Garnett could entirely derail their rotation by burying the excellent Plumlee.

 

#4 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Washington Wizards:

Since the trade deadline, the Bulls have been the fourth-best team in the league and they have homecourt in this series. They also have a massive playoff experience edge as well as a coaching advantage. The Wizards are your 2014 just-happy-to-be-here team. Making the playoffs is the Finals for them. Their coach is also terrible. Washington does dumb things on offense and the Bulls demolish teams that do that.

The Bulls get the experience and coaching edge here, and I'm probably underrating them

Model says: Bulls in 5 (90% Win probability).

Arturo Says: Bulls in 5, although Bulls in 4 is very tempting.

XFactor: The Bulls have been terribly injury prone in the post season. If that is the case again, the Wiz might stretch this to six.

 

Western Conference:

 

#1 San Antonio Spurs vs #8 Dallas Mavericks:

I loved the potential for Dallas to be a dark horse early in the season, but they never did figure out how to protect the rim. They are also playing a San Antonio team that is the best in the league and is a machine of basketball destruction. I think Dallas will put on a decent fight, but San Antonio will shift into second and Milton Berle their way to a sweep.

No coaching or experience edge to be had between these teams.

Model says: Spurs in 4 (99.9% Win probability).

Arturo says: Spurs in 4.

XFactor: Does Pop treat games in this series as an extension of the regular season and rest his starters? Might go five if he does.

 

#2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #7 Memphis Grizzlies:

This is my leading candidate for the best series of the first round. These teams are dead even. It will be personal and physical. I can't wait.

No coaching or experience edge to be had between these teams.

Model says: Thunder in 7 (61.8% Win probability).

Arturo says: Thunder in 7.

XFactor: Scotty Brooks loves him some Perkyfish. This is a terrible matchup for OKC in that Memphis – by virtue of personnel and style – will tempt Scott Brooks with terrible lineup choices. There will be much angsting amongst OKC fans about Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher in round 1.

 

#3 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #6 Golden State Warriors:

The Bogut injury is devastating for the Warriors. With their full complement of starters the Warriors are a legit contender. Without them, they're a one and done team. The Clippers have been a top three team all year and I don't think we&'ve even seen CP3 shift into fourth or fifth gear. I think this is about to go poorly for the Warriors. Just think: David Lee on Blake Griffin.

The Clipps get the coaching edge here.

Model says: Clips in 5 (79.3% Win probability).

Arturo says: Clips in 5. I also think that 4 is more likely than 6. It could get bad.

XFactor: I think the Clippers have an extra gear. They may be about to lay the smackdown here.

 

#4 Houston Rockets vs. #5 Portland Trailblazers:

The Rockets have the two best players in this series. They've also been significantly better than the regressing Blazers since the trade deadline. They should be a dominant favorite here. Does anyone remember them showing up to a nationally televised game with the Bulls looking hung over? I certainly do.

The Rockets get the experience edge here.

Model says: Rockets in 5 (88.2% Win probability).

Arturo says: Rockets in 6 (they'll blow a game they don't need to).

XFactor: The Rockets are very charitable gentlemen. Portland has many female dancers who are trying to finance their educations with night jobs at drinking establishments. Synergy and hope for the Rose Garden may be the them of this series.

 

Good luck, and don't forget to make your picks!