(A quick note before we start, rankings are through games of Tuesday, February 4th)

• #1 Oklahoma City Thunder Neutral Site Win:73% (Up 1,#6 in offense, #3 in defense): At a blistering 11-1 pace over the last 12 games, the Thunder continue to dominate the NBA, with their only loss a back to back in Washington (it was also the third game in four nights, the ultimate "scheduled" loss). We all know the "Kevin Durant is the best player alive" narrative (0.353 WP48 is mind blowing). A lesser known narrative is that Scotty Brooks appears to have finally figured out that Perk is not helpful to the team (in fact, downright harmful). A further narrative is that running an offense through Kevin Durant is now demonstrably better than running it through Russell Westbrook. Unless Russ can adapt his game and allow himself to be a complementary offensive player, he's not only redundant but possibly a detriment to this team's ceiling (Editor's Note: how long have we been saying this now?). They would be better off if they could turn him into a dominant big and a complementary guard. Russ and Adams for Boogie, IT2 and Landry, who says no?
• #2 Indiana Pacers Neutral Site Win:67.5% (Down 1,#19 in offense, #1 in defense): The difference between Lance and George gets wider by the day (0.256 WP48 and 0.201 WP48). Whereas before they were close, Lance is now clearly playing like the Pacers' MVP for the year, yet he's not an all-star. The Pacers continue to be a sure thing for the Eastern Conference Finals and it's with that in mind that they went out and signed Bynum. I don't believe he will be of any help during the regular season, but if they can get him into game-shape before the playoffs he could be a significant factor against Miami or any possible Finals opponent with effective size (Spurs, Clippers, Warriors, Blazers, Memphis, hell, maybe even the Suns).
• #3 Los Angeles Clippers Neutral Site Win:65.7% (Up 2,#4 in offense, #8 in defense): If they were healthy, the Clippers should be the favorite to make the finals out of the West. They are playing fantastic ball without the best point guard in the game (13-5 in 2014). They have two killer bigs (Blake and DeAndre "the best Center in basketball" Jordan). They have a veteran coach who won't be overmatched in any playoff matchup. They also have some veteran players surrounding their big three that have been in conference and NBA finals (Reddick, Barnes, and Dudley). If they were healthy, they'd be a lock for the conference finals for me. As it stands they're just a strong favorite.
• #4 Memphis Grizzlies Neutral Site Win:65.5% (Up 11,#18 in offense, #9 in defense): Well, hello there Memphis! At one point the Grizzlies got up as high as number two on the rankings (yesterday). Remember what I said about injuries though? Conley being out is killer for them (0.169 WP48). I still think that the Grizzlies are a legit dark horse to make the Finals if they can survive their schedule and make the playoffs. Given how much of their margin for error they blew in the first half, it could be a very tough road to travel. It is extremely likely that Memphis gets to be the road team to the Thunder, Spurs, or Clippers in round one. Great basketball, but killer for the loser.
• #5 Minnesota Timberwolves Neutral Site Win:63% (Down 1,#8 in offense, #6 in defense): Losing Pekovic really hurts the Twolves chances (0.155 WP48). This team has already dug itself into a hole by losing a ridiculous percentage of its close games. As good as they are, they cannot afford to lose any more ground. The Twolves are one of four teams in the top ten in defense and offense (the Thunder, Clippers, and Spurs are the others) and every single other team on the list should be considered a championship contender. Should we consider the Twolves a contender as well? My historical model says yes, provided they can win enough games to get in. They have the superstar and the star (Love and Rubio) and the playoff vet in the rotation (Barea) (Editor's Note 2: You're killing me Arturo. Barea is awful. My secret hope is that we trade him). I would consider them a longshot though.
• #6 Miami Heat Neutral Site Win:62.9% (Up 3,#1 in offense, #25 in defense): The Heat are 7-2 over their last nine games and I don't believe they're even trying too hard. Fun fact: by my numbers, if the Heat go 13-22 over their remaining regular season games they're virtually assured of a two seed in the East. The goals for them are simple: keep the older core (Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Ray, Battier, and Birdman) healthy and rested; develop Oden (0.063 WP48) into an interior presence for the Indiana series. Everything else above and beyond that is pure gravy.
• #7 Golden State Warriors Neutral Site Win:62.5% (No Change,#12 in offense, #4 in defense): The quality of the Warriors play continues to be directly related to their overall health. When healthy, they're great; when they're banged up, they get beaten by the Bobcats at home. Did you know they're 2-5 over their last seven home games? That won't cut it in the West. The issues that we pointed out at the beginning of the season remain. Their roster isn't very deep, and this isn't a good thing when your starters have a history of injuries. Green is good, Barnes and Thompson are ok, but after that there's not much else. They're a team that needs health and will be better suited to the playoffs, when rotations get shorter. If they can survive that long.
• #8 San Antonio Spurs Neutral Site Win:58.6% (Down 5,#3 in offense, #7 in defense): Kind of hard to argue that Kawhi (0.247 WP48) is not the best player on the Spurs now. Combined with Manu, Green, and Splitter being out, his absence was – and is – very hard to overcome. The return of Splitter and Green (both at 0.177 WP48) have already started to mitigate the losses somewhat. The Spurs will recover and will be in the playoffs. Homecourt advantage and the Division crown are now legitimate questions. This is, however, the first rankings where I wouldn't say they're a favorite for the WCF.
• #9 Portland Trail Blazers Neutral Site Win:58% (Down 3,#2 in offense, #18 in defense): Portland is 3-5 over their last eight and slowly but steadily coming down to earth. This is similar with what we’re seeing with the Spurs, with the key difference that the Blazers have no injuries to point to for the decline. Quite simply, it looks like the early pace that their top six set was unsustainable. Don't get me wrong, this is still a good team – and they're still a team that is very, very smart about what they do – but at this point I would not consider them a contender to win it all. Historically, this is the kind of team that is headed for a first round upset. The future is bright though.
• #10 Phoenix Suns Neutral Site Win:57.8% (Down 2,#10 in offense, #13 in defense): As good and surprising as the Suns have been, they're not a legitimate championship contender. This is a team built around one star (Dragic at 0.246 WP48) surrounded by above average players. They lack a championship big man and a second star to put them over the top. Smartly, Phoenix has realized this, taken a look around at the battered and injured rosters of their competitors and decided to go get that Man. After a terrible start, Pau Gasol has been working himself back to his old self. He is the best fit for what the Suns need if they want to make a deep run and on a one year deal is perfect in terms of salary risk. The Suns totally need to make this trade. It's a gamble that could get them a banner if they win it and cost them almost nothing if they lose it.
• #11 Sacramento Kings Neutral Site Win:56.9% (Up 7,#11 in offense, #30 in defense): Consider this ranking proof that during the course of a long season, shit happens. The Kings crushed the Bulls last night and this is reflecting strongly on their rankings. However, the Kings are also 2-9 over their last 11 and 11-19 since the Rudy Gay trade. Don't get used to the air up here, Kings fans.
• #12 Charlotte Bobcats Neutral Site Win:56.3% (Up 9,#24 in offense, #14 in defense): At 5-3 over their last eight, the Bobcats have been putting together an impressive run as of late. As I've said the entire season, they're scrappy, well coached, play great defense and very fun to watch. But they still can't score to save their lives. But this is a team that, with a few tweaks, can be very good in the coming seasons. Their biggest problem is Michael Jordan and their front office. Pray for Cardboard Gerald.
• #13 Toronto Raptors Neutral Site Win:56.1% (Down 2,#17 in offense, #5 in defense): The Raptors are 20-10 since the Rudy Gay trade and are taking care of business. Over their last nine, their only three losses are on back to backs which is the sign of an excellent team. Kyle Lowry (0.250 WP48) has been amazing for what is clearly the third best team in the East and a team that actually looks like it has crazy potential. DeMar continues to be overrated (0.096 WP48) and they're probably missing one more star. Perhaps their GM should make a trade? Cue all other 29 GMs disconnecting their phones. For the hell of it, DeMar/Fields/Jonas for Smith/Pope/Drummond, who says no?
• #14 Houston Rockets Neutral Site Win:56% (Down 4,#7 in offense, #12 in defense): At 14-6 over their last 20, Houston is playing well, but not great. Partly it's because of injuries (Harden and Beverley have both missed time) and partly it's because they've had a lot of good – but not great – players. Honestly, it feels like they're not quite there yet. I still think that they're a move away. I could be wrong, and Harden and/or Howard could take it to another level, but right now I haven't seen it. They should be considered a contender, but one that hasn't really shown it.
• #15 Atlanta Hawks Neutral Site Win:54.8% (Up 1,#9 in offense, #17 in defense): The Hawks not only refuse to die, but at 7-5 over their last 12, saw their adjusted point differential rise. Millsap, Korver and Carroll have all been fabulous (0.131, 0.220, and 0.191 WP48) and the Pero Antic injury is still playing in their favor as the Scott/Brand/Ayon combo is better. Looking forward to that 4/5 series on NBA TV.
• #16 Denver Nuggets Neutral Site Win:53.9% (Down 3,#16 in offense, #15 in defense): Again, take Lawson out (0.185 WP48), and you get losses. Bring him back and play Faried (0.239 WP48), you get wins. This continues to be about a five hundred team that is more dangerous at home (because of the altitude).
• #17 Dallas Mavericks Neutral Site Win:53.8% (Down 3,#5 in offense, #27 in defense): The Mavericks have been experimenting with Dirk at the five as of late and it's certainly shown in his numbers. However, the fact remains that they really do not have enough size to be considered a contender. They also don't have a true star or superstar. As much as I liked them in the preseason, I don't see it unless they make a move, and I don't really see a move out there.
• #18 Brooklyn Nets Neutral Site Win:52.6% (Down 6,#14 in offense, #26 in defense): So the Nets are back right? They did go 10-1 over 11 games but followed that up with a 1-3 stretch. The lesson, friends, is that the schedule matters. The Nets, when healthy, are a five hundred club and any adversity makes them terrible. Given the Joe Johnson injury and their track record, I suspect this might be a false moment of hope, and bad things might be coming.
• #19 Chicago Bulls Neutral Site Win:51.9% (Down 2,#28 in offense, #2 in defense): There are nights when this Bulls teams will get blasted out of the building and there are nights when they'll win ugly.  With Noah, Butler, Dunleavy, Gibson, and Augustin in the rotation, and Thibbs as the coach, this is a five hundred team and a tough playoff out. Again, expect another trade because what this team really wants is the cap space to bring in another max guy to pair with Uber Euro rookie Nikola Mirotic (currently leading the Euro league and second in the ACB in Win Score per 40 for players with 20+ minutes, coming to NBA courts very soon) and the returning Rose. The future for this team could be very, very good.
• #20 New York Knicks Neutral Site Win:51.3% (Up 9,#15 in offense, #29 in defense): Feels like I'm about to repeat myself. With the Bargs injury and the Amare injury, Woodson has absolutely zero choice but to play his best lineups. Combine it with J.R. Smith actually playing competent basketball (0.043 WP48 and rising) and this is absolutely the best possible outcome for this Knicks roster. Which, by the way, is a 0.500 team. Considering the fact that Amare is about to come back to the rotation, Bargs will be back and J.R. is J.R., I expect that the music is about to get dark and ominous again. Cue the Melo trade rumors.
• #21 Washington Wizards Neutral Site Win:49.6% (Down 2,#20 in offense, #11 in defense): Hmmm, 4-2 over their last six with wins at Phoenix, at Golden State, over OKC and Portland, and their two losses were on back to backs? The Wizards might be starting to put it all together for a run. Stay tuned.
• #22 New Orleans Pelicans Neutral Site Win:46.7% (Down 2,#13 in offense, #20 in defense): The Pelicans just went 4-2 over their last six games and went down two spots on our rankings. They're not making the playoffs. My advice continues to be to lock down their key guys (Davis, Aminu, and Jrue) and basically look to get rid of the rest of the crap on the roster using their assets (Tyreke, Gordon, and Ryan Anderson are all assets).
• #23 Utah Jazz Neutral Site Win:40.5% (Down 1,#23 in offense, #28 in defense): The schedule caught up with the Jazz a bit, but their point differential remains identical. They have been banged up recently so expect this number to go up.
• #24 Detroit Pistons Neutral Site Win:39.8% (Up 1,#22 in offense, #16 in defense): 6-14 over their last 20. The Josh Smith (0.037 WP48) experiment has not worked at all for Detroit. This team needs a trade. Let's hope it's not with Toronto. DeMar/Jonas/Terrence Ross for Josh Smith/Pope and Drummond. Who says no?
• #25 Los Angeles Lakers Neutral Site Win:35.9% (Up 1,#21 in offense, #24 in defense): The Lakers just played an NBA game with Jodie Meeks, Ryan Kelly, Zombie Steve Nash, Steve Blake, Nick Young, Wes Johnson, Kendall Marshall, Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill, and Manny Harris wearing the Purple and Gold. In the regular season. Somehow, MDA made them look halfway respectable. They can't keep their Big man (who'd probably take a discount to stay) because they paid an aging shooting guard (who's suffering the kind of injury that ended Yao Ming's career) the highest salary in the NBA. I now understand Schadenfreude (Editor's Note 3: Oh please, you're a Celtics fan. Don't pretend the Shadenfreude is just hitting you now).
• #26 Orlando Magic Neutral Site Win:33.6% (Up 1,#25 in offense, #22 in defense): 3-17 over their last twenty with wins over Boston, LA, and Milwaukee at home. I see what you did there.
• #27 Boston Celtics Neutral Site Win:32.3% (Down 3,#26 in offense, #10 in defense): At 4-19, Boston is right there with the Magic in tank town. I can only assume another trade is coming.
• #28 Milwaukee Bucks Neutral Site Win:30.4% (No Change,#30 in offense, #21 in defense): At 3-18 over their last 21, Milwaukee will not be ignored in the race for the ping pong balls.
• #29 Cleveland Cavaliers Neutral Site Win:28.7% (Down 6,#27 in offense, #19 in defense): At 7-19 over their last 26, it's incredibly sad and pathetic that Cleveland actually rates worse than three teams that have clearly checked out of the 2013-14 season. Getting another lottery pick won't help them either. I have to say that the Cavs are by far the dumbest and worst run franchise in the NBA and it isn't even close.
• #30 Philadelphia 76ers Neutral Site Win:26.1% (No Change,#29 in offense, #23 in defense): At 3-13 over their last 16, Philly is getting back into the lottery race. Again, they have a decent young roster, good coaching and a crazy amount of assets. The wins will come soon enough.

Finally, let's sim out the rest of the season. How does the model think all this plays out over 82 games?

And now it's time to sing along...