"Know your role and shut your mouth" - The Rock
Lebron James has played 994 games in his entire career. He's had 5 personal fouls exactly 38 times in that span. He's also never,ever before had five fouls before the end of the third quarter. Until last night. Let's watch them again:
Seriously? Let's throw this little ditty out as well. Six foul outs for his career and two are in game 5 of the Eastern Confeence finals.
I was so sure this game was going to be a travesty that I went to the movies with my wife rather than watch it. The power went out in the middle of the movie and I had time enough to glance at my phone and check the scores. Here's my live reaction:
This would be the 3rd time lebron fouls out of an ECF gm 5 to extend a series. That's more foul outs than in the regular season for career.
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
This would be the 3rd time lebron fouls out of an ECF gm 5 to extend a series. That's more foul outs than in the regular season for career.
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
You should take exactly zero from that game. Zero.
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
It brought this to mind actually:
This has been a terrible playoffs for anyone arguing that the refs are perfectly neutral. After that car wreck of a series between the Clippers and the Thunder and what went on in the last game of the Thunder and Spurs, having this game happen just completely breaks any possible suspension of disbelief I still held.
I am a hardcore basketball fan. I have no rooting interest at this point past the love of the game and if I did it would be anti Lebron. I am disgusted enough not to want to watch the games beforehand. The league needs to fix this.
Rant off. Let's get to the series.
We start with the Power rank:
That is the power rankings using our typical Kalman Filter approach. The numbers are now pretty clear that we are seeing the three best teams in the conference finals. Oh, and the Indiana Pacers are playing as well.
Now we get to the recaps. A little background first, I need to explain the graph you are about to see. For each series you'll get a table that contains basic player information (name, team, position for series, % of possible minutes played) as well as information about the player's performance. It shows the player's average value in terms of point margin per game for the series (POP per game) as well as his value for each individual game for the series (gm1 thru gm7) and his per minute value (POP 48) and his performance level (explained here). These first numbers are with respect to value in the series, the rest of the numbers are how the player compares to all the players in the playoffs in per minute numbers (POP48 and WP48) and Wins Produced. Got it?
If you have questions, feel free to ask in the comments.
Spurs-Thunder
Serge Ibaka is the most important player on the Thunder. He presence makes their defense. Now, the Thunder were also helped by very favorable homecourt whistles but we expected those. Some notes on this series from a twitter convo with Beckley Mason (@BeckleyMason):
.@BeckleyMason seems obvious. I've been thinking four shooters on the floor (or even five like late in game 4) completely changed things.
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
.@BeckleyMason Other thing that jumped out to me is that the Thunder seemed very familiar with certain passes. Once SA switched lineups..
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
.@BeckleyMason that seemed to go away.
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
@BeckleyMason would you start Tony, Cory, Kawhi, Tim and Boris? Patty, Manu, Danny, Bonner and Splitter 2nd unit. Run em like hockey shifts
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
@BeckleyMason Cory was a real problem for OKC though. I'd rather have his slashing particularly to get fouls at home. Use Diaw to stretch
— The man with the #'s (@ArturoGalletti) May 29, 2014
To me, the Spurs need to switch up the lineups they run out there as the Thunder look way too familiar with some of the patterns they run and they also need to have more shooting out there. This means Duncan and Splitter at the same time is a no-no. I'd really consider Diaw at center and a lot more Bonner. The Thunder should really be prepared for the calls not to go their way tonight and hope that legendary Westbrook continues to show up.
At this point though, the refs might call this Clippers/Thunder game 6 style and make it easy on the Thunder. I really hope they stay the hell out of the way because game five could be a classic.
Initial Prediction: Spurs in 5
Updated Prediction: Spurs in 6. Barring some ridiculousness, I expect Pop to adjust to Brooks and the Spurs to close out.
MVP: Serge!
Heat-Pacers
Everything you need to know about this series can be summed up in one sentence: the Pacers almost managed to lose a home elimination game that the League was actively and agressively trying to give to them. Hell, if Birdman wasn't hurt the Heat win this game handily. I fully expect the Heat to destroy this Pacer team in game 6 even if they're going five on eight.
Initial Prediction: Heat in 6
Updated Prediction: Heat in 6 (Lebron is about to make Lance Stephenson blow it out his ear.)
MVP: Lebron James although NBA Referees come in second.
Finally, Let's do the updated odds. This was a little rougher as I had to change the Thunder lineups to correct for the mistake their medical staff made in scratching Ibaka for the Playoffs. I guess they were wrong to assume he wasn't willing to sacrifice his olympic eligibility for the sake of this playoff run.
At this point, I will caution that I have no clue what the refs will do so tread likely with your expectations.
-Arturo