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The Pistons: Halfway There

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The Numbers

  •  Average Seed
    5
  • 📉 Pessimist
    39.0 wins
  •  Realist
    46.4 wins
  • 📈 Optimist
    53.8 wins
 First Seed
 
6.3%
 Division
 
24.3%
 Top 4
👍 Over (41.0)
👎 Under (41.0)
 
24.0%
🎀 Playoffs

Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.

Peral S. Buck

The Brief

Since the loss of Billups the Pistons have been a below 0.500 team. Last year they couldn't crack 30 wins for the third time in four years. Yet, they had a few reasons to be hopeful. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond have the potential to be a dominant frontcourt. Despite a subpar offseason where Dumars did his thing, yet again, we think the Pistons are ready to be a playoff team, and on their way to contending (maybe)!

The Story

Last Year

  •  Actual Wins: 29
  •  Expected Wins: 30.3
  •  Lucky Wins: -1.3
Player Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Greg Monroe 2687 23 .101 5.6
Brandon Knight  2365 22 -.003 -.1
Kyle Singler 2293 25 .061 2.9
Rodney Stuckey 2171 27 .043 2.0
Jason Maxiell  1789 30 .045 1.7
Tayshaun Prince  1457 33 .077 2.3
Andre Drummond 1243 20 .308 8.0
Will Bynum 1219 31 .012 .3
Charlie Villanueva 1092 29 .008 .2
Jonas Jerebko 892 26 .082 1.5
Jose Calderon  887 32 .254 4.6
Khris Middleton  475 22 .072 .7
Kim English 407 24 -.021 -.2
Austin Daye  348 25 .132 1.9
Corey Maggette  257 33 -.113 -.6
Viacheslav Kravtsov   224 26 .095 .4

 

 Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

  • 30.3 total Wins Produced
  •  8 players leaving
    (7802 minutes, 19.6 wins)

If the Pistons had Calderon for a full season, or if Andre Drummond hadn't had his season cut short from injury, things might have been different. Outside of Drummond, Monroe and Calderon, there wasn't a lot to be optimistic about. Despite all of Joe Dumars' wheeling and dealing, the Pistons simply have a lot of bad players. Has that changed?

This Year

  •  Projected Wins: 46.4
  •  Conference Rank: 4
  • % Playoffs: 82.7
Player Position Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Brandon Jennings  1.0 2791 24 .096 5.6
Josh Smith  3.9 2787 28 .097 5.6
Greg Monroe 4.9 2587 23 .177 9.6
Andre Drummond 5.0 1949 20 .333 13.5
Rodney Stuckey 1.6 1879 27 .079 3.1
Kyle Singler 2.6 1510 25 .068 2.2
Jonas Jerebko 3.7 1323 26 .103 2.8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope   2.0 1154 20 .118 2.8
Chauncey Billups  1.3 944 37 .106 2.1
Charlie Villanueva 4.0 765 29 -.008 -.1
Will Bynum 1.1 646 31 -.020 -.3
Tony Mitchell  4.0 504 21 -.015 -.2
Peyton Siva  1.0 380 23 -.003 0
Josh Harrellson  4.6 269 25 .152 .9
Luigi Datome  3.0 185 26 .055 .2

 

 Indicates that the player is new to the team.

  • 📅 40.0 WP last year
    by these players
  • 🔀 7.2 WP (roster changes)
  •  10.3 WP (age/experience)

 

Well, a little. Dumars managed to upgrade his team by grabbing Jennings and Smith. The fact that they are both projected to be below average, and that this is nevertheless an upgrade, should tell you something! We have three major things to give the Pistons hope. First, Monroe should bounce back this season. Two, Drummond will likely play more. Three, Caldwell-Pope was a great pickup. The Pistons are still a ways off. When you can count the above average players that will give you more than 1000 minutes on one hand, there's a problem. In a weaker east the Pistons should look to grab a playoff spot. Sure, their first round exit will happen swiftly, but at least they'll be back in the playoffs.

The Wrap

At this point it's fair to say Dumars is a bad general manager. Making mediocre moves now qualifies as an upgrade for the Pistons! Detroit recently got new ownership, and it's a shame they don't realize Dumars is holding this franchise back. The good news is the Pistons have stumbled onto some wins. Drummon, Monroe, and Caldwell-Pope are a solid young core to build around. Now, who believe Dumars is the man to do that?

Do you guys foresee any problems with their spacing?
Cmon, you guys were down on Drummond in your draft modeling that year. Then the Pistons take Drummond and he dominates and its deemed as "stumbling" into him? The kid had freak athleticism and the Pistons clearly selected him based on his physicals. You guys modeled the data on college stats, and did a great job on that which is excellent, but in this case the scouting part was right. No model is perfect, I don't begrudge you guys on that, but his physical attributes does not make it seem like Detroit stumbled onto him. I'm far from a Dumars defender as he is a bad GM in pro scouting, he appears to be a good drafter with Drummond, Monroe, and KCP. Please give him some credit for that.
Could we get the rest of the percentages up top? The top seed percentage is the only one listed.
As far as minutes projections go - how are those calculated? I don't see Jennings leading this team in minutes, not with three PGs on the roster who Cheeks (right or wrong) figures to play. Unfortunately, Bynum figures to play a lot more and KCP a lot less than these projections. In addition, Smith listed as "3.9" seems a little strange, given that he'll be starting at the 3. Hard to see him playing less than 1/3 of his minutes at that position.

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