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The Nuggets: the New Regime

The Numbers

  • Average Seed
    7
  • 📉 Pessimist
    38.3 wins
  • Realist
    46.3 wins
  • 📈 Optimist
    54.3 wins
First Seed
 
1.1%
Division
 
22.7%
Top 4
 
17.0%
👍 Over (47)
👎 Under (47)
🎀 Playoffs

Be vigilant, for nothing one achieves lasts forever.

Tahar Ben Jelloun

The Brief

The Nuggets are going from a franchise-best regular season to being a fringe playoff team. Their offseason moves have been hit-and-miss. They have some bright spots moving forward. Having said that, as a Nuggets fan I am not overly optimistic.

The Story

Andre Iguodala has always been one of my favorite players. Last season the Nuggets acquired him in a Moneyball-inspired move that involved them giving up very little for one of the best players in the game. In spite of George Karl yanking their minutes around, Kenneth Faried, Kosta Koufos, and JaVale McGee all played at a high level. Somehow Andre Miller defied Father Time and Danilo Gallinari was finally healthy (however briefly)!

It wasn't all perfect though. Corey Brewer, who should not get heavy minutes or take a lot of shots, proceeded to do both (George Karl is just going to be George Karl). Lawson, apparently trying to make me look bad, had a down season after signing a big extension. Wilson Chandler got healthy enough to get on the floor, and because he was Wilson Chandler, this was a problem.

Regardless, the good outweighed the bad. The Nuggets put up their best regular season, flirted with getting a number one seed, and for a brief, beautiful moment, they were a contender. 

But when the playoffs came around, injuries to Gallinari and George Karl's tendency to use...creative....playoff rotations both collided for a coaching disaster and a first-round exit to an inferior team. We did mention George Karl was their coach right?

Last Year

  • Actual Wins: 57
  • Expected Wins: 54.7
  • Lucky Wins: 2.3
Player Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Andre Iguodala 2779 30 .172 10.0
Ty Lawson   2513 26 .129 6.7
Danilo Gallinari   2309 25 .103 5.0
Kenneth Faried   2248 24 .217 10.1
Andre Miller   2151 37 .172 7.7
Corey Brewer 2003 27 .018 .8
Kosta Koufos 1817 24 .183 6.9
JaVale McGee   1433 26 .156 4.6
Wilson Chandler   1079 26 .036 .8
Evan Fournier   428 21 .034 .3
Jordan Hamilton   397 23 .051 .4
Timofey Mozgov   366 27 .078 .6
Anthony Randolph   329 24 .097 .7
Julyan Stone 28 24 .199 .1
Quincy Miller   26 21 -.263 -.1

Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

  • 54.7 total Wins Produced
  • 4 players leaving
    (6627 minutes, 17.8 wins)

 

The Nuggets dropped Corey Brewer and George Karl in the offseason. These were both good choices. But there were plenty of bad moves as well. Toronto grabbed Executive of the Year Masai Ujiri. Andre Iguodala hopped ship to Golden State. The club traded Kosta Koufos, a surprisingly solid starting center, to Memphis in return for Darrell Arthur, a terrible backup big man. In my mind, John Hollinger did this to make up for the digs I've given him over the years. Or perhaps Kroenke owed him money. 

Add that all up and one third of the Nuggets wins and minutes walked out the door in the offseason. It's hard not to think that the result is a weaker team.

This Year

  • Projected Wins: 46.3
  • Conference Rank: 7
  • % Playoffs: 72.6
Player Position Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Ty Lawson   1.1 2747 26 .175 10.0
Kenneth Faried   4.1 2486 24 .260 13.4
Randy Foye 2.1 2287 30 .021 1.0
JaVale McGee   4.9 2229 26 .171 7.9
Wilson Chandler   3.7 1984 26 .030 1.3
J.J. Hickson 4.8 1594 25 .105 3.5
Danilo Gallinari   3.1 1397 25 .126 3.7
Nate Robinson 1.2 1218 29 .060 1.5
Timofey Mozgov   5.0 996 27 .028 .6
Andre Miller   1.5 808 37 .124 2.1
Anthony Randolph   4.2 682 24 .057 .8
Evan Fournier   1.1 532 21 .055 .6
Darrell Arthur 4.2 401 25 .021 .2
Jordan Hamilton   3.4 284 23 .076 .4
Quincy Miller   3.0 26 21 -.246 -.1

Indicates that the player is new to the team.

  • 📅 47.3 WP last year
    by these players
  • 🔀 -11.6 WP (roster changes)
  • 3.8 WP (age/experience)

The effect of Masai's absense became apparent very quickly. There was cause for optimism when the Nuggets picked up J.J. Hickson. Hickson had a great season last year.  But Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, and Darrell Arthur? That is a terrible set of pickups. Our projections reflect that.

The end result? A mid 40s team and a probale 6 to 8 seed that is set to lose in the first round. Also known among Nuggets fan as "2004".

Projected Playoff Rotation: Lawson, Manimal, Foye, JaVale, Gallinari, Chandler, Nate and Hickson. They really need to get a better Shooting guard if they don't want the Rockets, Spurs or Grizzlies to roll them in Round 1. (EDITOR'S NOTE: Signing Nate Robinson when a) your starting PG is already short enough to look JJ Barea dead in the eye and b) you've got Andre Miller? That is pure genius!).

The Wrap

I'd feel bad not ending with some optimism. Lawson's set for a bounceback season. The Nuggets' new coach Brian Shaw, who learned at the feet of Phil Jackson, will likely give more minutes to Faried and McGee. Gallinari and Chandler could turn it around. I know this is grasping at straws. The truth is the Nuggets have downgraded their roster. Yes, they have Lawson, Faried, and Hickson at great contracts. That means under smart leadership this team could return to being a contender in a short amount of time.

The frustrating thing as a fan is that they already had a contender last year. It's hard not to focus on what could haven been.

Dre, hey, it'll be ok.

Say it with me: the Nuggets traded George Karl for Phil Jackson's number one lieutenant, who also happened to design the best defense in the league last year in Indiana. This will be a scrappy, young (12th youngest in league) likeable team that'll win a bunch of games. If Shaw is anything like his mentor he'll play his best guys and his young players will improve.

The biggest issue I see is that George Karl, for all his other faults, was a remarkable x and o's coach. I do think getting that new offense together will be a challenge. Denver should also actively be looking to add some more three point shooting.

@Arturo, [/sarcasm] we got Randy Foye why would we want more 3pt shooting [/sarcasm].

@Dre, I know Iggy was an all-star and Kosta was a starter (what am I sposed to do with this Koufos jersey?) but somehow it was the loss of Stone that killed me. Maybe they knew/know more about his hip injury and this will in fact have been a good decision, but everything about that kid screamed "middle-class man's Magic Johnson".

Those 179 minutes in early 2012 when it was Stone/*/*/Faried/Koufos were fantastic.
I cannot believe they let Masai Ujiri go. That one is definitely going to hurt. I cannot blame them for Iggy, he just seemed to want to leave.

I'm really hoping things work out for Shaw. He's a great guy and definitely deserves the chance to coach a good team.
Is Chandler still being evaluated as a PF? It seems more likely that he will play more SF and maybe even SG this year. I'm not exactly sure what your position column means.
i'm curious how you guys are calculating Wins/WP48. i'm assuming this is a win shares calc of some sort, but you have pretty huge discrepancies between your values and basketball reference's, so i'm not sure. for example, you have faried's WP48 at .217 from last year, while basketball reference has his win shares per 48 at .167 (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013_advanced.html).

i could be missing something obvious, but this seems like a pretty material discrepancy. any thoughts on why your figures are so different?
kylewurtz,

The information you seek can be found here: http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/faq

WP48 and WS48 are different -- albeit similarly derived -- measures of performance.
@DevinDignam

thanks! that's exactly what i was looking for.
The new Denver g.m. seems to be following in the path of James Dolan. Aside from all the above regarding how Denver has followed a path of how to deconstruct a title contender, there are rumors floating around that Brian Shaw (who has no head coaching experience) has decided that he does not like Kenneth Faried because he feels that due to Faried's being undersized, he can not be an effective player in a slower half court game and thus Denver is trying to trade Faried while he still has his rookie contract and his stock is high. Instead of Shaw trying to play a game geared to his players strength, he has decided that he's going to deconstruct his team in order that they play the exact style that he wants to play. Obviously, any team that gets Faried will be getting a steal. Just a thought out of the box, maybe Daryl Morey and his team, whose weakest position is power forward, will find a way to get Faried and team him with Howard. Obviously, Asik and a third team would have to be involved. In any case, I'm interested in seeing which team is smart enough to steal Faried from Denver.
@613 If the Nuggets are dumb enough to ship out Faried, I wouldn't mind seeing how a JJ Hickson/Asik pairing works out. Course then they probably have to move JaVale.

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