Let me introduce a metric that I call the MVP Score:
MVP Score = Team Win % * ( A*Player%TotalPts + B*Player%TotalRebounds+ C*Player%TotalAssists+ D*Player%TotalBlocks+ E*Player%TotalSteals+ F*Player%TotalTurnovers + G*Player%TotalFGMiss+H*Player%TotalFouls) + I*DefensiveWinShares/GamesPlayed +K
Blame it on me being bored one night while my wife was watching the most exciting Rose ceremony ever (no, really), and I was banned from being snarky. That singular event led me to break out the regression tools to try to quantify a statistics-based equation to predict the MVP voting. By now, this has gone through more than a few iterations, and I’ve built up the model based on trial and error and obvious observations. Some easy ones are:
- Which stats should I use? (Let regression decide).
- Do records matter? (Yes).
- Should I adjust for pace? (No. Hell, you shouldn’t even adjust for team production. Pundits have a hard time with scale and adjusting for it).
I introduced it here. In general, the model is an excellent predictor for the MVP award -- with a few caveats:
- Lack of differentiation at the top. In other words, external factors leading to an incumbent, a media favorite or a bridesmaid sneaking in (The Rose tinted glasses).
- Media market size and fanbase play a part (let’s call this the Kobe Corollary).
- Having multiple candidates on a team plays a part (let’s call this one Pau’s Dilemma).
- Also playing on, say, a 50 win 8th seed in a loaded year can kill your chances (the Denver Rule).
- Finally, it does look like advanced stats do have some sort of effect (let’s name this one the Berri-Oliver-Iverson Hypothesis)
It’s not perfect, but I think it does a great job at predicting our MVP frontrunners.
Last year it gave us the following result:
| 2013 MVP Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Rank | Team | MVP Score | MVP Actual | ||||||||||||||||||||
| LeBron James | 1 | MIA | 111% | 99.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Kevin Durant | 2 | OKC | 95% | 63.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Russell Westbrook | 3 | OKC | 54% | 0.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tim Duncan | 4 | SAS | 51% | 5.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Dwyane Wade | 5 | MIA | 47% | 0.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Tony Parker | 6 | SAS | 42% | 7.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Kobe Bryant | 7 | LAL | 41% | 15.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| James Harden | 8 | HOU | 37% | 2.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Chris Paul | 9 | LAC | 32% | 23.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Brook Lopez | 10 | BRK | 29% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Chris Bosh | 11 | MIA | 28% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Carmelo Anthony | 12 | NYK | 27% | 39.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Curry | 13 | GSW | 26% | 0.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | 14 | DEN | 25% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Ty Lawson | 15 | DEN | 23% | 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Serge Ibaka | 16 | OKC | 23% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Deron Williams | 17 | BRK | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Jamal Crawford | 18 | LAC | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Josh Smith | 19 | ATL | 21% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Blake Griffin | 20 | LAC | 21% |
As you can see, while Kevin Durant had a top 4 all time MVP campaign he just happened to be playing behind the man who owns the three highest mvp score seasons since 2003 (2013, 2010 and 2009). Lebron James kicked ass and took names. Russell Westbrook at number 3 in score did not help Durant either. Russ and Wade both suffer from being "Robins". Carmelo shows up at third in the voting, most likely due to playing in NYC. CP3 at fourth is logical, as is Kobe at 5th, based on score and playing in LA.
2014 presents an opportunity. It does seem that the King has lost a step. Lebron is banged up and his team is a little lost. KD is facing a tougher road as well. Rose is back but he does not look very good. It seems like we have a wide open field for a new player to take the best-player-alive crown.
Let's get to the results for this year so far:
| Player | Team | Rank | MVP Share Score | Batman or Robin? |
| Kevin Love | MIN | 1 | 114% | Batman |
| Paul George | IND | 2 | 85% | Batman |
| Tony Parker | SAS | 3 | 83% | Batman |
| Kevin Martin | MIN | 4 | 71% | Robin |
| LeBron James | MIA | 5 | 65% | Batman |
| Kevin Durant | OKC | 6 | 55% | Batman |
| Chris Paul | LAC | 7 | 52% | Batman |
| Blake Griffin | LAC | 8 | 48% | Robin |
| James Harden | HOU | 9 | 45% | Batman |
| Roy Hibbert | IND | 10 | 44% | Robin |
| Anthony Davis | NOP | 11 | 40% | Batman |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | POR | 12 | 39% | Batman |
| Al Horford | ATL | 13 | 37% | Batman |
| Eric Bledsoe | PHO | 14 | 33% | Batman |
| Arron Afflalo | ORL | 15 | 33% | Batman |
| Damian Lillard | POR | 16 | 32% | Robin |
| Jeff Teague | ATL | 17 | 32% | Robin |
| Tim Duncan | SAS | 18 | 28% | Robin |
| Evan Turner | PHI | 19 | 26% | Batman |
| Dwyane Wade | MIA | 20 | 26% | Robin |
- As far back as 2010, I said Kevin Love might be the best basketball player alive. I was mocked, I was scoffed at and I was ridiculed (Editor Patrick: You and me both, man...). With Love averaging 26 pts and 15 rebounds a game and his Twolves rocking, I feel his bandwagon is about to get mighty full. Get in early, his odds are still at 15-1 to win the MVP.
- After him, we have Paul George taking a massive leap in the early part of the year and leading the undefeated Pacers. George is currently going off at 5/2 to win the MVP. If the Pacers are the one seed in the East and the Twolves fade that's a very good play.
- Number 3 on our list is Tony Parker. Parker's candidacy hinges on the Spurs current 65+ win projection. Top Scorers/perceived best players on 65 win teams generally win the MVP (2008 being the exception). If the Spurs are who we think they are and Parker is healthy, Tony at 35 to 1 is too low.
- Kevin Martin at the #4 spot is having a nice year, but ultimately he's Robin to KLove's Batman, and should therefore be ignored.
- The reigning MVP sits at #5. Lebron's problem is that his team won't care enough to win enough games to keep him in this race. He's 7 to 5 but this is way too high considering how much we like the Miami under, and how desperately the voters are looking for reasons to vote in somebody else.
- KD at #6 is currently at 5 to 1. KD is the heir apparent, and even though I think the Thunder could face a tougher year, a muddled race helps his chances. If the candidates get tightly bunched, KD is my favorite to win the media darling award.
- CP3 and Blake at #7 and #8 cancel each other out, and should not be considered serious candidates right now.
- I liked Harden's (#9) odds before the season (50/1), but his team's lackluster play and his terrible defense are currently disqualifying him.
As of right now, I think it's time to make Love not war.
And hopefully, the MVP win in Minny will eventually be followed by a title in Boston again.