The BoxScore Geeks Most Improved Player Rankings

The award for most improved player is one that always infuriates me. It almost always translate to the award for "player that's always been good but we didn't know because they didn't get minutes last year". Kevin Love and Ryan Anderson are perfect examples of players who didn't actually improve, but just got more minutes and showed up on the media landscape. Occasionally, there's a player that got better because he's young and increased his minutes and production; those at least make sense in the spirit of the award (like last year's winner, Paul George).

Why isn't this guy everyone's pick so far?

To get an idea of who should be in the running for this, I looked at all players who played 500+ minutes last year AND at least 190 minutes this year, and sorted them by the change in their respective wins produced per 48 minutes:

Player Last Year This Year Delta
Michael Beasley -.113 .166 .279
Kevin Love .089 .289 .200
Marco Belinelli .035 .234 .199
Bismack Biyombo .065 .264 .199
Jordan Crawford .048 .245 .196
Wesley Johnson -.048 .141 .190
Marcus Morris -.001 .175 .176
Rashard Lewis -.014 .161 .175
Arron Afflalo -.009 .160 .169
Wesley Matthews .109 .264 .155
Draymond Green .047 .195 .148
Patrick Mills .071 .213 .142
Markieff Morris .005 .133 .127
Andrea Bargnani -.109 .011 .121
DeJuan Blair .109 .227 .118
Xavier Henry -.040 .075 .116
Norris Cole -.044 .071 .115
Spencer Hawes .049 .157 .108
Alan Anderson -.013 .094 .106
Paul George .164 .268 .104

First, let's eliminate everyone who is not playing at an above average level this year. After all, going from "terrible" to "bad" is good for team wins but isn't really deserving of a league-wide award, right? That eliminates Andrea Bargnani, Norris Cole, Xavier Henry and Alan Anderson. But this is not where our story should end, of course. Some players should be eliminated because "returning to form" doesn't count (this is my opinion. You may disagree). So, Kevin Love, Aaron Afflalo, and DeJuan Blair are also out (Ryan Anderson would also be out, by the way; he was ranked 21st with an improvement of 0.102). I'll reserve judgment on Rashard Lewis; he's been terrible for long enough that calling this a "return to form" would be a little weird (more on him in a minute). The jury is also out on Spencer Hawes; he was great in limited minutes in 2011-12, but that's not enough for me to call it his "true form".

So that leaves us with:

Player Last Year This Year Delta
Michael Beasley -.113 .166 .279
Marco Belinelli .035 .234 .199
Bismack Biyombo .065 .264 .199
Jordan Crawford .048 .245 .196
Wesley Johnson -.048 .141 .190
Marcus Morris -.001 .175 .176
Rashard Lewis -.014 .161 .175
Wesley Matthews .109 .264 .155
Draymond Green .047 .195 .148
Patrick Mills .071 .213 .142
Markieff Morris .005 .133 .127
Spencer Hawes .049 .157 .108
Paul George .164 .268 .104

What's interesting is that Eric Bledsoe and Lance Stephenson, everyone's darlings for this award, are not on this list. Am I being controversial yet again by saying that Bledsoe is overrated? Am I still "hating" on Indiana? Neither. Bledsoe and Stephenson shouldn't qualify for this award any more than Kevin Love and Ryan Anderson should have in prior years -- because they were already great last year. Bledsoe is getting more recognition because of more minutes, and Stephenson is getting more recognition because of Indiana's success. Both have indeed improved -- just not as much as the players on this list.

The "deserving" leader for this award is, in my opinion, Wesley Matthews. I'll get to him in a bit.

After Matthews, my runaway winner is Michael Beasley, who went from complete train wreck to actually producing wins for a championship team. Not only is he no longer competing for the more-shots-than-points award, he's also improved his rebounding, turnovers, blocks and steals. I suspect he'll regress a little bit; he's not going to keep shooting 50% from beyond the arc, but still, holy cow! This is the kind of player we thought he was in college, and why he was so disappointing to watch as a pro.

Bellinelli looks great as well; sure, 57% from 3 is completely ridiculous, but he's also basically doubled his rebounding rate, upped his assists and steals, and lowered his fouls. He's playing like a completely different player. Not the first time we've seen this happen to someone that Pop takes in to the fold.

Has Biyombo finally "figured out" the NBA game? This is his third year, and young players often make a big leap during their rookie contract (some players make a couple of big leaps, like Paul George appears to be doing). Given his physical gifts, this could single-handedly make up for all of the crazy things MJ has done as an owner. Then again, the fact that he isn't even in Charlotte's top 5 in minutes is about all you need to know about why the Bobcats are the Bobcats. Over his short career, Biyombo has had many shortcomings: he doesn't finish well at the rim, he doesn't rebound well enough, and he fouls too much. Well, so far in about 350 minutes, he has addressed all of those concerns and then some. I don't know if that's the real thing; again, sample sizes. But....why the hell haven't we got a bigger sample size!? In a world ruled by rational actors, you would think that when Biyombo plays well, coaches would reward him with more minutes. Then, if he regresses, they'd dial it back. Instead, He gets 5 minutes at a time. 5 minutes in which he plays fantastic. Over and over. Those 5 minute stretches never make it to 10 or 15 minute stretches, though.

This is why economic models are really hard to build: you get decision makers like the Bobcats who are apparently just picking lineups at random.

Much has been written about the Morris' brothers lately, and all I will say is that I "trust" Marcus' improvement more than Markieff's; Markieff's improved production is all in the shooting, and shooting is streaky. Marcus, on the other hand, has also upped his rebounds and steals. But I'm a little leery regarding both of them.

Rashard Lewis is very surprising. It isn't just that he's hot from downtown; he's also doubled his assists, is averaging 3 steals per 48, and has lowered his turnovers. For a player who's about 74 years old, that's remarkable. I won't credit this to coaching; Lewis played for Spo last year. I am, once again, skeptical this will keep up.

Jordan Crawford looks great so far. Assists up and turnovers down? That's a neat trick, and not easy to do. He's also getting more steals, and has combined an improved 3FG% with also more attempts from beyond the arc. Also a neat trick, and also not easy to do. If he's made "the leap", then the Celtics could become a pretty good team if Rondo gets back. The Celtics really need to find a way to keep Avery Bradley off the floor.

Finally, we come to Wesley Matthews. The Blazers started the season 16-3, Matthews is shooting a blistering 49% from 3, while also lowering his turnovers and rebounding at career-high rates, and all the credit goes to...LaMarcus Aldridge. Sigh. No matter what metric you choose, LMA is essentially the same player he was last year; whether you agree with me that he's overrated is irrelevant; the point is that he hasn't really changed by any metric. The Blazers' fantastic start is mostly because of vastly improved wing play, with Matthews leading the way. The fact that he isn't the runaway leader for this award so far is a travesty!

SO FAR. Oh, small samples; I love you so much.

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