Before the season, I took a trip to Vegas, and placed a bunch of money on various season-long NBA outcomes. You can read about the 2014/15 BoxScore Geeks Portfolio here. I promised monthly updates on how the portfolio is doing. This is the first such update.
So far, things are going pretty well. Let's break down the numbers:
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | PyW/L | expWins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHO | 11-8 (0.579) | 43 | 14% | $1050 | 1.91 | $2005.5 | 0.566 | 47 |
| CHI | 11-7 (0.611) | 55 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.585 | 48 |
| PHI | 0-17 (0.0) | 15.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.116 | 8 |
| WAS | 11-5 (0.688) | 48 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.578 | 49 |
| MIN | 4-12 (0.25) | 27.5 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.204 | 17 |
| SAC | 9-9 (0.5) | 30 | 10% | $750 | 1.91 | $1432.5 | 0.504 | 41 |
| BRK | 7-9 (0.438) | 42 | 7% | $525 | 1.91 | $1002.75 | 0.461 | 37 |
| CHA | 4-14 (0.222) | 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.255 | 20 |
| DAL | 14-5 (0.737) | 49.5 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.759 | 62 |
| MIA | 9-8 (0.529) | 44 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.453 | 38 |
| SAS | 13-4 (0.765) | 57 | 5% | $375 | 1.91 | $716.25 | 0.729 | 60 |
| Division Bets | ||||||||
| Team | W/L | Bet | % | $ | Odds | Paybett(W) | Rank | expWins |
| TOR | 14-4 (0.778) | WIN ATLANTIC | 3% | $225 | 1.7 | $382.5 | 1st | 64 |
| SAS | 13-4 (0.765) | WIN SOUTHWEST | 5% | $375 | 1.6 | $600.0 | 2nd | 60 |
| CLE | 9-7 (0.563) | WIN CENTRAL | 4% | $300 | 1.5 | $450.0 | 3rd | 51 |
| PHO | 11-8 (0.579) | WIN PACIFIC | 3% | $225 | 13.0 | $2925.0 | 3rd | 47 |
| MIN | 4-12 (0.25) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 101.0 | $7575.0 | 5th | 17 |
| POR | 14-4 (0.778) | WIN NORTHWEST | 1% | $75 | 3.8 | $285.0 | 1st | 62 |
| ATL | 10-6 (0.625) | WIN SOUTHEAST | 1% | $75 | 6.0 | $450.0 | 2nd | 48 |
First, an explanation of a few columns:
- PyW/L is the team's pythagorean win percentage expectation, which calculates an expected win percentage based on points for and points against. I arbitrarily chose Daryl Morey's method of calculating this in basketball, which you can find on Wikipedia.
- expWins is simply the team's current wins + (PyW/L * remaining games). In other words, how many expected wins will the team have at season's end if performance to date remains constant (which, as Arturo has pointed out, has some variability this early in the season).
- For division, Rank is based on win/loss percentage, not total wins. Right now, those can differ because some teams have played more than others, but at the end of the season, obviously, they produce identical rankings.
Let's take a look at the bets, breaking them down into three categories.
BOOK IT
- Sacramento OVER 30. They are 1/3 the way there already! Boogie has been playing as if basketball were his job, Rudy Gay is continuing to look like Sacramento is the only city that understands him, and Collison is, as we expected, making up for the loss of Thomas. They just don't have enough stiffs to lose 52 games.
- Charlotte UNDER 44. Wow. Honestly, we didn't think it would be this bad. This was more of a "Hey, um, guys, McBob was pretty good..." bet. Lance looks lost, and the injury to Kidd-Gilchrist has been huge (yes, everyone talks about the offensive problems, but they are also 25th in defensive efficiency).
- Toronto to Win the Atlantic. I guess a Lowry injury could give Brooklyn some hope, but otherwise this is as good as a lock.
- Portland to Win the Northwest. The Thunder have lost too many games to injury to catch up. The Nuggets do not have the talent to catch up. Barring injuries, stick a fork in this.
HANG ON TO IT
- Phoenix OVER 43. It feels like a no-brainer that some combination of the Morris twins would be a more than able replacement to Channing Frye in the starting lineup. In fact, Markief was probably a better option than Frye was last year. Marcus is a better shooter but Markief's better at everything else. The team is on pace to be about the same as last year, despite Miles Plumlee's underwhelming season so far. I'm pretty confident about this one.
- Chicago UNDER 55. A large part of this bet was that Derrick Rose would have health problems and/or underperform crazy/lofty expectations coming off 2 years rehabbing. Both have been issues so far for the Bulls. But, they've been kept afloat by Jimmy Butler (whom we loved long before the rest of the internet) having a breakout season. Gasol is fairing better in his battle versus Father Time than I thought he would, and the fact that Thibbs might start giving Mirotic ALL THE MINUTES scares the hell out of me, because he looks fantastic. This team is outperforming their expectation so far, though, so their's hope.
- Washington UNDER 48. They are playing .688 ball so far but their expectation is lower than that. Of course, since they play in the east, their schedule isn't likely to get much tougher. I'm reserving judgment on this one for another month. Otto Porter looks really good so far.
- Brooklyn UNDER 42. I still like this bet. Lopez has been awful, and that isn't surprising given the injuries he's coming back from. Their principals are otherwise playing surprisingly good ball, but given their age, it's unreasonable to expect iron man minutes from them. As we said before the season, the longer they underperform expectations, the greater the risk (hope?) that Prokorov blows it all up in a fire sale.
- Miami UNDER 44. This is another team that is outperforming their expectation (their efficiency differential is actually negative). Wade has had predictable trouble staying on the court, and after a strong start, Bosh is starting to look like he is 30 again. I am still pretty happy with this bet.
- San Antonio OVER 57. I want to put this in the BOOK IT section, but you can never be too confident with Pop. The Spurs' 2nd team is a playoff team, but they will need Leonard to stay healthy to hit 58+ wins, so we aren't counting chickens yet.
- San Antonio to win the Southwest. Memphis looks very strong, and at some point, Pop might not try very hard to win that #1 seed, but you have to believe the Spurs will remain in the thick of it, and they have yet to play each other. I do not expect to see any "DNP-Old" box score lines when they do.
- Cleveland to win the Central. They're starting to figure things out. I'm still skeptical about Blatt as a coach; they play a pretty stagnant offense and their defensive troubles are well established. The last time James played this much isolation ball, he played for Mike Brown. I think Irving is having a great year but I still see him take a lot of bad shots early in the shot clock (perhaps with good intentions, like trying to rally his team from a deficit). And Dion Waiters lurks -- he is still capable of torpedoing their chances.
- Atlanta to win the Southeast. They are, after all, just one game back. And the last few games, Al Horford looks like he is beginning to get his Mojo back. I really like the odds on this bet.
THROW IT OUT
- Philadelphia OVER 15.5. Yikes. Nerlens Noel has not at all been the player I thought we'd see, and Michael Carter Williams has taken a huge step backward. I'm inclined to think the latter is mostly because he's not 100% rehabbed yet, but I cannot explain why Noel is rebounding so poorly (insert joke here about opponents never missing, so there are no rebounds to grab). Hope is not completely lost (remember, the team that won 19 games at one point lost even more than 17 games in a row), but I'm checking out for a bit.
- Minnesota OVER 27.5. Man, even when they aren't in the playoff hunt this team just cannot catch an injury break. When Rubio went down, it was bad news, but I thought the team could hold it together enough to still be in contention for this bet when he returns. When Martin also went down, it was just too much. Martin is no superstar but he's a competent NBA wing backcourt player, and without him, the Wolves are hopelessly outclassed in the backcourt. Say whatever you want about Wiggins potential, right now he is awful. He does a lot of things that look pretty but that just end up in wasted possessions. Also, what the hell happened to Thad Young? He used to be a decent NBA player. Compounding all of this is that Flip has the team following the worst possible strategy for a young and overmatched team (play a really fast pace, but don't shoot threes). He is quite possibly the worst possible coach for these young players. He is teaching Anthony Bennett and Andrew Wiggins to settle for horrible shots night in and night out. It's not uncommon to see Wiggins catch the ball open behind the three point, pass up the shot, dribble into traffic, make a sweet-looking step-back, and clank a 20-footer. And then, inexplicably stay in the game. It's also notable that see Anthony Bennett is shooting 48% on 23-foot two-point shots, and that Flip has forbidden him from shooting threes. Flip is ignoring everything we've learned about basketball in the last twenty years and basically coaching a "GET OFF MY LAWN" offense right now, and wow, is it ugly.
- Minnesota to win Northwest. See above. It was always a long shot, now an impossiblity.
- Dallas UNDER 49.5. They have had a weak schedule, but like the Pacers and Blazers last year, I think they've just started too hot. I believe they will cool down a bit, but I also suspect that the damage has been done; they'll probabaly finish with 53+.
- Phoenix to win the Pacific. The Warriors have had far too strong a start for me to put any hope into this, even if Phoenix puts a little run together.