(A quick note before we start, rankings are through games of March 26th)

At 86% complete for the regular season, we are not going to bury the lede today. Let's start with a detailed playoff sim:

And the season sim as well:

The East is pretty set right now. Indiana will most likely get the one seed with Miami at the two. Toronto is a slight favorite of the group clustered around 3-6, followed by Chicago, the Nets, and the Wizards. There is a bit of drama around the eight seed, but it mostly comes down to whether or not the Hawks want it (the model thinks they'll go 4-8 the rest of the way and 35 wins gets them in – pathetic). The Knicks' and Cavs' challenges are unlikely at best.

The West is all sorts of interesting. The Spurs have pretty much locked up homecourt all the way through the Finals. The two seed seems to be OKC's to lose, with the Clips and Rockets jockeying for 3 and 4. The final four West seeds are not enough for the five teams vying for them. Of the five, the Warriors are almost assured to be in, with Portland second but teetering on the edge. Memphis is third but charging. Dallas and Phoenix are the most likely droppers, and it looks like one of them will watching the playoffs with 48 wins. Which would be good for third place in the East....

Let's get to the rankings:

 

As always, the rankings include pace and schedule adjusted offense and defense. ICYMI, all the offensive and defensive ratings went up as a visual post. Let's talk highlights (and don't be surprised if I spend less time on the non-playoff teams):

• #1 San Antonio Spurs Neutral Site Win: 75.2% (Up 11, #2 in offense, #5 in defense): The Spurs are currently a machine of utter destruction. Fifteen straight wins by an average of fifteen points. Their high minute man (Tim Duncan at about 27 minutes per game) is hovering around the 100th ranked player in terms of minutes. Seven players at better than +2 PoP48. Homecourt throughout the playoffs. Seconnd in offense and 5th in defense. The Spurs are tanned, rested, ready, and your favorite to win the title by a wide margin.
• #2 Houston Rockets Neutral Site Win: 69.1% (No Change ,#7 in offense, #9 in defense): Since the start of 2014, Houston is 27 and 9 and about +7. At times they've looked every bit the contender, but they've also shown up looking hung over to nationally televised games. Houston is probably the deepest and most talented of the top squads. They have the best player in the league at the two money positions for playoff success (SG and C). They also have a reputation as being a party team. When people talk about immaturity for this team, what they mean is that they'll stay up late partying as a team in the middle of a playoff series and blow it the next day. They don't have that burning fire in them that will motivate them to focus on playing. The Spurs, Clippers, or Thunder are about to help them grow up with a little pain. The only caveat? If James Harden goes into beast mode in the playoffs (which he's done before), then all bets are off.
• #3 Los Angeles Clippers Neutral Site Win: 67.6% (Up 2, #4 in offense, #7 in defense): The Clips are 29-10 this year and that has them only third in their own conference. The West is murderously insane. Historically, I would place the Clippers at a slightly higher bracket than the Rockets. This team has already gone through some playoff wars. Since I kind of feel that Spurs/Rockets in round 2 is inevitable, I feel the Clipps are fated to lose in the Conference Finals. In the past couple of years, the problem with this team has been health and coaching in the playoffs. If CP3, Blake, and DeAndre are healthy, this team needs to be taken as a short-odds championship contender. Particularly since they're the biggest market team with a serious shot at the title and have marketable stars – and you can bet that that will help them when it comes to playoff officiating.
• #4 Miami Heat Neutral Site Win: 63% (Down 3, #1 in offense, #20 in defense): I still feel that Miami is a clear favorite to win the East but there are clear and definite signs that the wear and tear of year four are grinding them down. This is an old team, and where Pop and San Antonio are resting players at a record pace, the Heat aren't. The road for them also got much, much harder in the last few months. Their lack of an effective true center is going to be murder in the playoffs too. The last team to make four straight Finals runs was the 84-87 Celtics, and they fell apart physically after that last run. The 2003 Lakers didn't get there. History says they're going to fail.
• #5 Oklahoma City Thunder Neutral Site Win: 62.2% (Up 13, #6 in offense, #4 in defense): What to make of the Thunder? They're 27-13 (+5.2) in 2014. They have the likely MVP in KD. They have Russell Westbrook playing the best basketball of his life. But there are still many problems. Scotty Brooks is still the coach and he's still enamored of Kendrick Perkins. Russell's knee is a huge concern, as is the health of Thabo, who’s a productive player and their best wing defender. There are enough red flags here for me to lean more towards a second round exit for them than anything else. I would also worry about their first round opponent. Crazy to say, but this particular team's days might be numbered.
• #6 Golden State Warriors Neutral Site Win: 62.2% (Down 2, #15 in offense, #3 in defense): We're in the range of first round Western playoff opponents no one wants to see. First up? The Golden State Warriors. If the Warriors were in the East, they'd be challenging for the 1 seed and I'd be touting them as a dark horse to go to the finals. Curry, Iggy, Lee, and Bogut are not who you want to see in a first round series. They can beat anybody but the Spurs in a round 1 series. 
• #7 Memphis Grizzlies Neutral Site Win: 61.8% (Up 1, #18 in offense, #6 in defense): Number 2 on our murderer's row of first round opponents is the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis is 30-11 in 2014 and +4.8. Everything I said about how GSW would far in the East also applies to the Griz. San Antonio also gives them fits too. No real star or superstar on this team though, so I have to consider them second tier (best is Tony Allen at 0.193 WP48)
• #8 Dallas Mavericks Neutral Site Win: 61.2% (Up 6, #3 in offense, #24 in defense): Dallas is a nice story and a terrific team to watch. That number 24 in defense and the lack of a star or superstar gives me pause. Consider them second tier as well.
• #9 Brooklyn Nets Neutral Site Win: 60.8% (Up 6, #13 in offense, #19 in defense): The Nets are close to being exactly what we thought at the beginning of the season. They're an older team full of productive veterans and very injury prone. After a horrendous first part of the season, they're 27-12 in 2014. Honestly, if the Lopez injury hadn't happenned then they could have challenged for the 1 or 2 in the East. My feeling with this team is that the playoff format and the relaxed medical testing during the playoffs will help them immensely. I would not be surprised to see this team upset Indiana or Miami in the playoffs.
• #10 Charlotte Bobcats Neutral Site Win: 59.7% (Down 3, #21 in offense, #12 in defense): The Bobcats to me have a very Pacers-in-2010-11 feel to them. Young, well coached, and defensively sound. Very limited offensively. I could see them competing in a series, but not really having a chance. Consider them our first happy-to-be-here playoff team.
• #11 Chicago Bulls Neutral Site Win: 58.2% (Down 5, #29 in offense, #2 in defense): At 28-13 in 2014, the Bulls should be considered a dark horse in the East. Everything for them really hinges on the health of Noah, who is their superstar (0.264 WP48 and 5.1 Pop48). He's gotten hurt the past two postseasons and it has absolutely killed them. I would want zero part of this team if I were the Pacers.
• #12 Phoenix Suns Neutral Site Win: 57.5% (Down 1, #8 in offense, #14 in defense): The Suns might win 48 games and not make the playoffs, and I suspect the other Western teams are rooting for just that outcome. If we keep in mind that Eric Bledsoe (0.158 WP48) missed a significant portion of the season, it's easy to conclude that this team is better than their already impressive record. If they're in, they'll give us a hell of a first round series and scare the pants off their opponent.
• #13 Indiana Pacers Neutral Site Win: 56.8% (Down 10, #22 in offense, #1 in defense): Indiana's point margin over the last twenty games has been zero. They have not been playing well at all recently. They look like they'll get the one seed and Homecourt in the East, but that 22nd ranked offense should worry Pacers fans. Hell, I think Atlanta could get a few games off them in Round 1. The good news is that nobody really watches the NBA TV playoff games. They also have to contend with the fact that the league will have lots of incentive to keep them out of the finals. I can't see a Spurs/Thunder versus Pacers Finals being a very popular idea with the broadcast partners. They're the team that would be happy to make the Finals.
• #14 Toronto Raptors Neutral Site Win: 56.5% (Down 1, #14 in offense, #8 in defense): Young, fun, and playing above their weight class, Toronto could win a round 1 series depending on matchup. They can take Charlotte or the Wizards. However, they wouldn't get a single call in a series against the Heat, Pacers, Bulls, or Nets. They'll be happy to hang a banner for the Atlantic and win a series.
• #15 Minnesota Timberwolves Neutral Site Win: 54.9% (Down 6, #9 in offense, #10 in defense): Will Kevin Love play another season in Minnesota? I really don't think so. It's a pity too. The emergence of Dieng (0.209 WP48) gives this team some real options. For example, they could move Pek for picks.
• #16 Washington Wizards Neutral Site Win: 49.8% (Up 1, #17 in offense, #15 in defense): We have our first playoff patsy! The Wiz are rated as a barely five hundred team and that doesn't really rate in the playoffs. With Wall, Ariza, and Gortat, they have some talent, but they're also terribly coached. They're going to lose at least one game in the playoffs where you'll be scratching your head wondering what happened.
• #17 Atlanta Hawks Neutral Site Win: 48.4% (Up 2, #11 in offense, #21 in defense): Patsy number 2 is the Hawks, who still look like they're trying to give the eight seed away, but there are no takers. Every year we have one squad get nuked by injuries, this year the injury fairy moved into the ATL. The Pacers will keep them around one or two more games than they should in round 1. But that is on the Pacers, not the Hawks.
• #18 Portland Trail Blazers Neutral Site Win: 47.1% (Down 8, #5 in offense, #13 in defense): This is the one easy matchup in the Western playoffs...if they can hold off the collapse and still make it in. The regression to the mean has fully set in with this team. I would much rather play them than Phoenix right now.
• #19 Sacramento Kings Neutral Site Win: 46.7% (Down 3, #16 in offense, #23 in defense): I guess the answer with Rudy Gay is to play him next to a dominant big. Gay has been great (0.149 WP48) with the Kings. He's still not worth his salary, but he's not killing them either. This will be an interesting situation going forward.
• #20 New York Knicks Neutral Site Win: 46.1% (No Change, #10 in offense, #29 in defense): The Knicks could make it in simply because the NBA office makes some phone calls, but right now they're horrendous. The Lakers just scored 51 points on them...in one quarter. The Lakers! They're 29th in defense. They almost helped the Sixers win a game. They should be sent home and blown up in the offseason. I'm sure Phil is working on that.
• #21 New Orleans Pelicans Neutral Site Win: 45.7% (No Change, #12 in offense, #25 in defense): Anthony Davis is the man (0.248 WP48).
• #22 Cleveland Cavaliers Neutral Site Win: 45.3% (Up 2, #25 in offense, #17 in defense): The Cavs make me sad.
• #23 Denver Nuggets Neutral Site Win: 42.7% (Up 6, #19 in offense, #18 in defense): I foresee wholesale changes for this team in the offseason.
• #24 Detroit Pistons Neutral Site Win: 42.4% (Down 1, #23 in offense, #16 in defense): Having Andre Drummond on the roster (0.325 WP48 and 15.3 Wins) and somehow not making the playoffs in this year's East should get Joe Dumars blacklisted from the NBA.
• #25 Los Angeles Lakers Neutral Site Win: 42% (Up 2, #20 in offense, #27 in defense): As a Celtics' fan, I have to say I'm pleased with the direction the Lakers franchise has been headed the entire season. Good job, Mitch and Jimmy. Keep it up.
• #26 Boston Celtics Neutral Site Win: 39.3% (Down 1, #28 in offense, #11 in defense): Some nice pieces, but tank job number 1.
• #27 Milwaukee Bucks Neutral Site Win: 37% (Up 1, #27 in offense, #28 in defense): Some nice pieces, but tank job number 2. Shutting down players for precautionary reasons is an Orlando move that the Bucks seem to have copied.
• #28 Orlando Magic Neutral Site Win: 35.8% (Down 2, #26 in offense, #22 in defense): Tank job #3.
• #29 Utah Jazz Neutral Site Win: 27.6% (Down 7, #24 in offense, #30 in defense): Tank job #4.
• #30 Philadelphia 76ers Neutral Site Win: 21% (No Change, #30 in offense, #26 in defense): The best tank job ever. Ever. Sam, take a bow and a victory lap.

Next time we'll talk playoff rotations and projections. As for my Finals pick right now? Take a guess. 

One more time, we're gonna celebrate. Let's do it again.