Lance Stephenson should be an All-Star

We're nearing the end of January, and that means that it's time to decide who makes it into the All-Star game. Which players should make the cut?

Eastern All-Star Candidates

Player Position WP48 Wins Wins Rank PPG PPG Rank
LeBron James F 0.334 10.6 1 26.2 1
Andre Drummond F 0.306 8.7 2 12.6 25
Kyle Lowry G 0.243 7.5 1 16.1 13
Paul George F 0.232 7.2 3 23.3 3
Lance Stephenson G 0.241 7.1 2 13.7 20
Joakim Noah F 0.249 7.0 4 11.7 33
Anderson Varejao F 0.246 6.5 5 8.8 44
Trevor Ariza F 0.227 5.9 6 13.7 17
Kyle Korver G 0.208 5.6 3 12.2 26
Carmelo Anthony F 0.159 5.1 7 26.1 2
George Hill G 0.186 4.6 4 10.6 31
DeMarre Carroll F 0.177 4.3 8 9.7 40
Martell Webster G 0.171 4.3 5 11.5 28
Dwyane Wade G 0.205 4.3 6 18.9 5
Amir Johnson F 0.160 4.0 9 10.7 37
Kyrie Irving G 0.059 1.7 24 21.7 2
Note: players in bold were selected by fans as All-Star starters.

Four of the five Eastern All-Star starters made it onto this list, and each of those four players is ranked in the top 10 at their respective positions. The one glaring error is the selection of Kyrie Irving, who was selected over the best point guard in the East and the player most responsible for the Indiana Pacers' surprisingly good play so far.

The reasoning behind Irving's selection becomes evident if you take a look at his points per game (PPG). While he only ranks 24th among Eastern Conference guards in terms of wins, he ranks 2nd in PPG. As a matter of fact, all of the Eastern Conference starters perform well by this measure: at 5th, Dwayne Wade is the lowest-ranking Eastern starter. Yay points!

Even according to traditional wisdom, Irving is not the best choice. Toronto's DeMar DeRozan scores about the same amount of points (21.8 PPG), is more productive (DeRozan has produced 2.9 wins to Irving's 1.7), and plays on the better team (Toronto is 21-20 and is 4th in the East; Cleveland is 15-27 and tied for 10th place). But even with all that going for him, DeRozan isn't a good choice for that second guard spot.

The best options to take Irving's place are DeRozan's teammate, Kyle Lowry, and Most Improved Player candidate Lance Stephenson. Lowry has been the best point guard in the East so far and is third among all Eastern Conference players in wins. Stephenson is ranked 5th among all Eastern Conference players, just behind his teammate Paul George. How is it possible that, while George is in the running for MVP votes, Stephenson is getting such little All-Star buzz? Despite what some people say, his advanced stats are actually very impressive. Stephenson has actually been more productive than George on a per-minute basis!

Western Conference All-Star Candidates

Player Position WP48 Wins Wins Rank PPG PPG Rank
Kevin Durant F 0.347 11.8 1 31.0 1
DeAndre Jordan F 0.312 10.1 2 9.6 42
Kevin Love F 0.318 9.5 3 25.0 2
Chris Paul G 0.358 8.8 1 19.6 6
Nicolas Batum F 0.239 7.5 4 13.0 23
Andrew Bogut F 0.289 6.9 5 8.1 53
Stephen Curry G 0.215 6.8 2 23.5 2
Goran Dragic G 0.227 6.3 4 19.4 8
Wesley Matthews G 0.210 6.3 3 16.7 17
Anthony Davis F 0.248 6.2 6 20.2 7
Ricky Rubio G 0.231 6.2 5 8.6 43
Dwight Howard F 0.194 6.1 7 18.3 11
Kawhi Leonard F 0.244 6.0 8 11.6 28
Andre Iguodala F 0.260 5.5 9 9.8 39
James Harden G 0.178 5.4 6 24.3 1
Blake Griffin F 0.164 5.4 10 22.6 5
Chandler Parsons F 0.168 5.2 11 17.2 14
Ty Lawson G 0.181 5.1 7 18.0 14
Serge Ibaka F 0.179 5.1 13 14.3 19
Robin Lopez F 0.190 5.1 12 10.4 35
Kobe Bryant G -0.060 -0.2 DNQ 13.8 DNQ
Note: players in bold were selected by fans as All-Star starters.

The Western Conference has been much better than the Eastern Conference so far this season, and unsurprisingly that means that the West has more productive players. The twenty players shown here have all produced more than 5.0 wins; the East only has ten such players.

As with the East, four of the five All-Star starters look like good choices; the only huge mistake was selecting Kobe Bryant, a 35 year-old who has only played six (unproductive) games due to injuries. Bryant's selection means that Chris Paul – who is merely the best point guard in the entire NBA – won't be selected as an All-Star starter. That's what happens when you let fans decide the starters.

The Boxscore Geeks All-Star Starters

Player Position Wins WP48 Conference
Kevin Durant F 11.8 0.347 West
DeAndre Jordan F 10.1 0.312 West
Kevin Love F 9.5 0.318 West
Chris Paul G 8.8 0.358 West
Stephen Curry G 6.8 0.215 West
LeBron James F 10.6 0.334 East
Andre Drummond F 8.7 0.306 East
Paul George F 7.2 0.232 East
Kyle Lowry G 7.5 0.243 East
Lance Stephenson G 7.1 0.241 East
Note: players in bold were selected by fans as All-Star starters.

Now that would be an All-Star game to watch. With the exception of Jordan, everyone on the West can shoot from all over the court. Jordan would provide rebounding, defense, and highlight-reel dunks. Paul (#1 in assists/minute) and Curry (#6) are excellent passers; Durant (#5 among small forwards) and Love (#2 among power forwards) aren't too shabby either.

On the East, Drummond, Lowry, and Stephenson would get the recognition they deserve. Drummond's main weakness (free throw shooting) would be irrelevant in an All-Star setting, and he'd give the East starters some sorely-needed size. As with the West, Drummond would be surrounded by four players who can shoot from anywhere on the court and who are willing passers.

An All-Star game between these two teams would be filled with dunks, crazy passes, and plenty of threes. Several of these players are even known for their defensive prowess. What's not to like?

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