How will the Bulls fare without Derrick Rose?

**UPDATE: As expected, Derrick Rose opted to repair his meniscus and will miss the rest of the 2013-14 NBA season.**

Derrick Rose sat out the entire 2012-13 season with a torn ACL in his left knee. Now he has a torn meniscus in his right knee and is out indefinitely. How will the Bulls do without him?

First of all, let's tackle the question of how long Rose will be out. According to USA today, Rose will have surgery on Monday, and the extent of his injury won't be known until that happens. If the surgeons attempt to repair Rose's meniscus, Rose could be out from 4-6 months; if they elect to simply remove it, the estimated recovery time is 6-8 weeks. Of course, these recovery times are only estimates -- last year it only took the Artest formerly known as Ron 12 days to return from a torn meniscus. But my money is on Rose attempting to repair the meniscus if he can, so we should probably expect him back later rather than sooner.

Then there's the question of how the loss of Rose impacts the Bulls. So far this season Rose has been terrible. Not only is he last on the Bulls in terms of wins, he's also last in the entire league. That's what happens when you average 25 FGA/48 while posting an eFG% of 40% and combine it with 5.2 TO/48.

Now there is a chance that Rose would've improved as the season went along; in fact, his Points over Par (PoP) were trending in that direction:

But that doesn't change the past. When Rose played this year, he was terrible, and it's very unlikely that the Bulls will fill his minutes with someone who will perform even worse. After all, only two players who have played 130+ minutes have performed worse on a per-minute basis. So in the short term, Rose being out would seemingly help the Bulls. Kirk Hinrich can go back to being a point guard and Mike Dunleavy and Mike James will get more minutes.

The bigger problem for the Bulls is that they'll also be missing Jimmy Butler for a couple of weeks, and Butler has been the team's top performer for the season so far. Dunleavy and Hinrich were already set to see an increase in minutes before Rose's latest injury, so that means that the additional minutes are probably going to have to come from James and three players who haven't seen very many NBA minutes: Marquis Teague, Tony Snell, and Erik Murphy. Teague is in his second year, but has only played just over 400 minutes in his career; Snell and Murphy are rookies and have just over 20 NBA minutes between the two of them. And unfortunately for the Bulls, none of these three players have played well in their very brief time on the court.

The good news for the Bulls is that, even with these two injuries, they still have seven relatively productive players on their roster. As long as these seven players get the bulk of the team's minutes, Chicago will do okay in the weak Eastern Conference. But it's probably safe to say that our season preview -- which counted on Rose largely resembling his old self for 3000 minutes -- and 50 wins are probably not going to come to fruition this year.

Of course, we sorta called that one. And it won't be the last time, either.

(The constant talk of predictions diminishes this site, in my opinion. I don't think you need to follow every other pundit in the sports world and try to predict the future. I'm no economicist, but the true value of a metric isn't its predictive power! Collectively, you're great at adding insight to past events, which is valuable enough!)

It could all be bad luck, but is Derrick Rose the next Grant Hill? His obsession at going 99mph down every open lane and attempting to play above the rim could help explain his season ending knee injuries. If he focused on becoming an effective shooter and finesse player instead of an oft-injured slasher, could he have a more productive career? Maybe his body type just doesn't match the kind of player he wants to be. Grant Hill had a meaningful tail end to his career in part because injuries and age adjusted his own expectations. I guess the counter-argument would be Blake Griffin?
Not saying this injury could be prevented but coaches tend to overplay their best players. Like Arturo pointed out on twitter, Rose is a heel strike runner. This type of running is conducive to injuries.
I'm curious, why haven't you delved into these kind of situations more from a probabilistic standpoint? Do you just feel there's nothing out there that could possibly shed light on injuries?
How would catastrophic injuries be forecast? That sounds more like Hari Seldon's Psychohistory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)) than anything we can currently do. That, and it knowing about injuries in advance would mean avoiding them, thus negating the research.

No model can hedge minutes played. Rose is binary - he either plays or doesn't, and you simply can't bell curve binary variables.
Well, there's been a whole lot of digital ink spilled lately writing about the history of recovery from ACL injuries. It doesn't lend itself to precise numbers, but it seems to me that finding a way to integrate it would still be better than ignoring it completely. I've never done anything like that though, so maybe the answer is it can't be done...
@Coxygen You definitely aren't an economist. The most important value of any metric is its predictive power, and it isn't close. The whole point of describing the past and present is to predict future outcomes- it's a fun academic exercise to apply metrics to the past, but that's it.
Devin: http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/rudy-gay-banned-stat-sheets-toronto-raptors-locker-013152969--nba.html
Also: http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/okc-thunder-fan-may-away-20-000-halfcourt-012154382--nba.html

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