Introduction

The Playoffs need fixing. Year after year bad teams get a shot at an upset in the first round, while good teams stay home. There isn't a good reason for this. At some point in the history of the NBA, the league decided that a team's geography was integral to their playoff hopes. In spite of the improvement in travel and the massive change in media coverage, this idea has stuck around. We'd like to change the playoffs to have an extra elimination round to let more deserving teams in.

Background

The Memphis Grizzlies are a good basketball team. They went from being a poorly run laughing stock that gifted the Lakers two more banners to one of the better teams in the NBA. Their season started out with some bad luck thanks to some injuries. With their roster and their management (I admit that John Hollinger has done an excellent job since joining the team) they're in good shape, and they've made the playoffs three consecutive seasons. If the Grizzlies were in the East they'd have the third-best record in the conference. They'd be guaranteed home court in the first round and have a good shot at making the Conference Finals again. The Grizzlies though, are in the West. And if the playoffs started right now, the Grizzlies would be sitting at home watching.

In the last ten seasons, a team with a losing record has made it into the East playoffs seven times! In 2010, the Chicago Bulls made it in with a 41-41 record. In 2005, the New Jersey Nets finished one game over 0.500. And in 2012, the Philadelphia 76ers managed two games over 0.500 in the lockout shortened season. They did finish their season winning 4 of 5 against eastern teams whose fates were sealed though. The 9th seeded Bucks had a 31-35 record. In short, the East sent in a losing team on a hot streak, not a contender.

The West is a different story. Over the last decade the worst team to grace the dreaded 9th seed was the Jazz in 2006 with a 41-41 record. The West has had a team with a winning record miss the playoffs nine of the last ten seasons. Additionally, three of those seasons a team five games or more above 0.500 above has had to stay home: The Timberwolves in 2005, the Warriors in 2008, and the Suns in 2009. Teams like the Warriors and Rockets have been hit hardest by just missing the playoffs with winning records. Out West people like Daryl Morey are targeted by ridiculous myths like "The Treadmill of Mediocrity". But if his team had been out East, his success would have been apparent much sooner.

Solution and Justification

You'll regularly hear us say we don't like tanking as a strategy. To clarify our position: tanking is intentionally harming your playoff chances (or your team), with the justification of improving your position in the draft. If you can remove the phrase "because it will help our draft position" from a trade analysis, it's not tanking by our measure. However, notice that part of our tanking point is if it impacts your playoff standing. Three games into the season it was ludicrous to say the 76ers shouldn't try to win. Are you kidding? If you have even the faintest glimmer of making the playoffs, you take it. The playoffs are essentially free money for teams thanks to how salaries are set up. However, if a team is out of the playoffs, then why should they worry about winning if they don't have to lose assets? And as soon as the NBA has a scenario where it's rational for a good team to stop caring about winning, they have a problem.

The key is to make the playoffs best for the fans. The NBA should want to put out the best product. Fans of winning teams pay money. Fans of winning teams stay loyal. And that means the NBA should want winning teams in the playoffs to make the most money possible. Putting a team with a losing record in the first round already breaks that. And guess what? Even bad teams have a shot at upsets. Don't forget the Hawks took the 2008 Celtics to seven games. And the 2008 Celtics were one of the fifteen best teams ever by the numbers! While it may have been better for LeBron's title hopes, having the Hawks go another round is not what fans wanted to see.

Our solution is to have a shorted pre-playoff round. We'll make it either a sudden death game or a best of three. If a team is out of the playoffs in one conference, they can play the team in the other conference for their spot if:

• The team out of playoff contention has a winning record
• The team they are playing has a record of 0.500 or lower. OR
• The team they are playing has a record five wins worse than theirs.

What's more, the winning team also gets the draft lottery pick. This makes the end of the season way more exciting. Now getting the 9th and 10th seed out West with a winning record (or maybe someday the East...) becomes a goal for teams. It also makes the playoffs more compelling and leads to matchups we might otherwise not see barring the Finals. Certainly it fixes the issue of letting bad teams into the first round. Given the small size of the playoffs, it's important to note that it's better to classify it as entertainment than a "perfect test of who's the best team". And with that in mind, we should make it as enjoyable as possible.