The NBAGeek Reflects on Vegas

Before the season started, I went to Vegas and placed a few bets. I promised to revisit them as the season went on. I've already done so once, and the end of the year seems like a great time to check in again.

We got this one wrong. Who wants to talk about the Knicks instead?

First, let's look at how things are doing so far.

Team Bet Current Pace Bet Pays Looking Good?
Knicks Under 50 26 wins $1,000 10:11 Y
Hawks Over 40 45 wins $100 10:11 Y
Pelicans Under 40.5 38 wins $300 10:11 close
Celtics Over 28 35 wins $500 10:11 Y
Pacers Under 55 68 wins $600 10:11 N
76ers Over 17 25 wins $500 10:11 Y
Jazz Over 25 22 wins $800 10:11 N
Warriors Under 51.5 46 wins $600 10:11 Y
Trailblazers Under 38.5 66 wins $400 10:11 N
Celtics Win Division 2nd $40 60:1 Y
Jazz Win Division Last $40 100:1 N
Grizzlies Win Division 4th $60 7:1 N
Pistons Win Division 2nd-but-yeah-whatever $20 17:2 N
Cavaliers Win Division 4th $20 16:1 N
76ers Win Division Last $20 500:1 Y
Totals $5,000    
 

I'm going to talk about all of these, but first I'd like to say something about the Jazz, Pacers and Trailblazers:

We. Were. Wrong. We really were.

Of course, there are actual reasons why we were wrong. We didn't just throw darts at a board. But I get the feeling that when I try to explore these reasons, some of our readers interpret these as, at best, hedging, qualifying and rationalizing, and, at worst, "hating". So let me be clear, when I say that I believe that both the Pacers and the Blazers have run a bit hot, this isn't hating. 68 wins would be tied for the 5th-best total of all time. I don't think either of these teams is that good. History may prove me wrong, but please don't react as if I'm saying that the Pacers are a 40-win team that's running hot.

The Knicks under 50

As Arturo pointed out earlier this week, the irony of this Knicks season is that Carmelo is actually having a career season. His scoring is about the same as it always has been, but he's having a career year in rebounding and turnovers (we need to come up with a word for the not-turning-the-ball-over statistical category). His latest injury, therefore, really hurts. Even if it doesn't hold him out long, it is bound to impact his performance. Bargs flirted with not-terribleness for a while, but he's back on a pace to widen the gap between himself and the second-place guy on the Least Valuable Player of all time leaderboard. I have to say, it does not give me confidence in the coach when I hear him complaining about his team's inability to rebound. That's generally what happens when you give the league's worst rebounding center heavy minutes.

Hawks over 40

This bet has been a bit close all season but the Hawks seem to be getting gradually better as the season wears on. Like Arturo, I believe that Ayon will help. I think Teague also has room to improve; his turnovers are very high right now.

As I first wrote this, the Hawks had won 5 of 6 and I was feeling great about it. Then, Horford went down. I no longer feel great about this, for obvious reasons.

Pelicans Under 40.5

I still like this bet, but it's going to be close. Aminu has gotten more minutes than I thought he would, and Holiday has been better than we anticipated. This will come down to the wire.

Celtics Over 28

The Celtics are helping Stevens in a bid for coach of the year. A team that everyone expected to stink on purpose actually looks like a decent bet to win the Atlantic. All this team needed to do was stay competitive and hang in there until Rondo returns, and that's exactly what they're doing. I think they should be trying really hard to trade Green because right now his perceived value is very high -- much higher than his actual value.

Pacers under 55

Our prediction had the Pacers winning about 41 games. Well...whoops. I think there are a lot of things that we got wrong, but among them are:

  • Danny Granger got hurt, and therefore never took minutes from Stephenson. By the time he got healthy, Stephenson was playing so well that it couldn't happen.
  • In addition to getting more minutes than we thought he'd get, Stephenson also made a big leap; he's far better on a per-minute basis than we predicted.
  • Paul George made a big leap; we predicted he'd solidify himself as an all star, but he decided not to waste his time with that, and went straight for All-NBA/MVP territory.
  • Roy Hibbert has either made a big leap or a return to form, depending on your viewpoint. He's far better than we predicted and is a legitimate all-star center.
  • David West is giving father time a monstrous middle finger. He hasn't declined at all from last year.
  • CJ Watson is piling it on by having his best year. This might be the coach's influence, because it appears to be largely because of increases in steals and decreases in fouls (i.e. the defensive categories).

That's a long list. In short, the Pacers have been a perfect storm of things we were wrong about. I think the model has some problems with predictions with regards to younger players; younger players often make "leaps" and it's hard to predict when this will happen, and how big it will be. Similarly, older players tend to fall off cliffs, and it's hard to predict when this will happen. This affected our projections of George, Stephenson and West. Hibbert was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde the last 2 seasons; it looked like he made a leap in 2011-12, but then he regressed a lot in 2012-13, and the model didn't really know how to project him. All of these combined into one big parlay.

Those of you who berated us in the preseason....well, you knew better than we (is it a coincidence you were all Pacers fans?). And its fair if you think the preseason line of 55 was a better prediction than ours. I will buy that you saw that coming -- if you show your work. But those of you pretending that you predicted a 23-5 start...well, you're in the wrong line of work, whatever you're doing. Why aren't you on a private island somewhere, and why are you reading this blog?

76ers Over 17

This team is regressing a lot lately. But I still think that what we said in the preseason stands: they lack the quantity of truly terrible players that they would need to finish with 16 or fewer wins. Notice also that both Turner and Young are heavily underperforming our predictions, and yet the team is well ahead of a 17-win pace. This is precisely what I was referring to with the Pacers: the model will let you get a couple of things wrong, because sometimes you'll be wrong in the other direction somewhere else (e.g. Michael Carter-Williams), but with the Pacers we got nearly everything wrong in a perfect parlay.

I'd be thrilled to be the 76ers GM right now, because Toney Wroten is awful, yet many in the league perceive him as a Most-Improved candidate, and Turner is pretty bad (mostly due to a huge turnover rate -- he doesn't have the handle to go to the hoop as much as Brown wants him to), yet many believe that he is "finally" becoming a star. Turner just doesn't fit well in the "three or layup" mentality that Hinkie and Brown like to push. Both players offer great opportunities for Hinkie to sell high (even if Turner will be an RFA next year). And if that happens, the team might become much better and "surprise" the media, just the way Toronto has lately.

Jazz Over 25

What looked like a sure bet has become a "well, they've gotta run hot". Again, we got a lot of assumptions wrong here: We thought Favors, Hayward and Kanter would make leaps, yet all three have instead gotten worse. We thought Rush would play significant minutes...and not suck. We didn't think the PG situation would be this awful beyond Burke. And lastly, we thought they'd get a few more wins out of their "unfair" mountainous home arena. The Jazz having a worse record at home then on the road is a huge shocker; together with the Nuggets, they typically enjoy a big home advantage.

They are returning to form, and I could see this team rattling off some win streaks during the dog days of the schedule. It will depend on who's actively tanking. I remain hopeful but not optimistic.

Warriors Under 51.5

Iguodala has been much better than we thought (largely because he's shooting the lights out from beyond the arc) and Bogut is back to being franchise-center material, so they're going to make this one a tight one. There's still room for this to go either way, and a lot will depend on the two sets of questionable ankles that Curry and Bogut share.

Blazers Under 38.5

Can I take this one back? I'd like to take this one back.

Ok, there are obvious things we got wrong: Matthews and Batum are both having all-star seasons (prediction: both will get snubbed anyway). But the more subtle thing that no one has mentioned is that Robin Lopez did a great job of replacing all of JJ Hickson's production. He's not the rebounder Hickson was but is a better shot blocker and doesn't turn the ball over nearly as much. Lopez is probably a much better fit next to Aldridge and we were certainly wrong to think that the Blazers got worse in the offseason by losing Hickson. If we had gotten that part right, we'd have had the Blazers closer to the Vegas line, and I wouldn't have made this bet.

Celtics to Win Atlantic

60-1 is pretty awesome considering they are in 2nd right now. Not much to say here. This bet was always basically a risky bet that the Nets would collapse under age/injury, because they were the only team in the Atlantic that looked like realistic winners.

Jazz to Win Northwest

This was a marginal bet that was only good thanks to the odds, and that was even back when we thought the Jazz were a good team. Now it's obviously just wastepaper.

Grizzlies to Win Southwest

The Grizzlies have not been the contender we thought they were, and only a contender is taking the crown from the Spurs.

Pistons or Cavaliers to Win Central

The Pacers ruined more than one bet for me :)

76ers to Win Atlantic

This bet is still a +EV bet, but only because of the crazy long 500:1 odds. Basically, trades/injuries/etc could still make this possible. I'm completely spitballing, but something like 100:1 seems "fair", which means that at 500:1 this is still a good bet.

How's that for a rundown?

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