The 2015/16 NBA Season is almost upon us, and this year, Boxscore Geeks' season previews are going to be a little different. Take a look at my preview of the Atlantic division for more background on how we are doing things differently.
In this article, I'm going to swing over to the other coast and take a look at the Central division, which will probably be the toughest division in the East.
5th. Detroit Pistons
Additions: Aron Baynes, Darrun Hilliard, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris, Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, Steve Blake
Subtractions: Tayshaun Prince, Greg Monroe, Shawne Williams, Caron Butler, Quincy Miller
Vegas Over/Under: 33.5
My take: Build a ****ing wall and stay under it.
The loss of Greg Monroe is going to hurt. This is going to be especially true if, like last year, Stan Van Gundy is going to be happy to lose a few more games now in exchange for getting Andre Drummond lots of in-game training. Last year, Drummond's efficiency and production fell dramatically in the beginning of the year, when Van Gundy had him posting up constantly. In the latter half of the year, though, Drummond came on strong. Will Van Gundy have a new "excercise" for Drummond? Will they try to fill the offensive hole that Monroe left behind by force-feeding Drummond?
I've already voiced my thoughts on Marcus Morris in my preview of the Suns. He doesn't have the rebounding or shot-blocking you need from a power forward, and isn't good enough offensively to make up for his defensive shortcomings.
Handing over the reigns to the offense to Reggie Jackson should scare the hell out of everybody. I like the under on this team; they need some help.
T-3rd. Indiana Pacers
Additions: Chase Budinger, Glenn Robinson III, Joe Young, Jordan Hill, Monta Ellis, Myles Turner, Rakeem Christmas
Subtractions: C.J. Watson, Donald Sloan, A.J. Price, Luis Scola, David West, Chris Copeland, Roy Hibbert
Vegas Over/Under: 42.5
My take: Who cares? They have a player named Rakeem Christmas on the roster!
I love the addition of Jordan Hill, and obviously the return of Paul George is going to be a huge boost -- even if George does take a bit to get back to 100%. Similarly, I think cutting the cord with Hibbert was the right move, and they won't miss David West or Luis Scola much.
Chase Budinger is a big question mark. Towards the end of last season, he looked like he might finally be getting his legs back, and if that trend continues, he'll be a great steal.
One of the big problems, though, is that George Hill was quietly one of the best point guards in the league (not just the East), putting up an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio, rebounding the ball, and scoring with great efficiency. Will he lose minutes to Monta Ellis? If so, that's going to be a disaster for the team's playoff push.
This is why I think the over/under is just about right. It's tempting to be bullish on this team because of the solid additions and the return of George, but there's still too much uncertainty around the lineups that Vogel will use. Roll a die, or go with your gut. You can't really go wrong on this one.
T-3rd. Milwaukee Bucks
Additions: Chris Copeland, Damien Inglis, Greg Monroe, Greivis Vasquez, Johnny O'Bryant III, Rashad Vaughn
Subtractions: Chris Johnson, Ersan Ilyasova, Jared Dudley, Kenyon Martin, Nate Wolters, Kendall Marshall, Zaza Pachulia
Vegas Over/Under: 43.5
My take: I'm really high on this team. Go over!
There are a lot of new faces, but the main change is the front court. I like this year's projected front line of Monroe and Parker (who was on his way to a rookie of the year campaign before his injury) than last year's combo of Pachulia, Ilyasova, and Giannis playing small-ball PF. The return of parker lets Giannis go back to playing small forward full-time, and although the loss of Dudley is going to hurt, I think the improvements to the front court are going to offset that.
Big question marks remain around Michael Carter Williams. He seems to have all the tools to be a great point guard, and I think we might see some signs of it this year, when he won't be asked to shoot the ball nearly as much as he was required to in Brett Brown's fast paced offense.
This doesn't seem to be a popular opinion, but I think the Bucks are going to surprise a lot of people this year.
2nd. Chicago Bulls
Additions: Bobby Portis, Cristiano Felicio
Subtractions: Nazr Mohammed
Vegas Over/Under: 49.5
My take: I'll take the over, reluctantly.
The biggest change to this roster is going to be Fred Hoiberg's offense. Expect the Bulls to shoot a lot of threes this year. The problem with this is that they aren't exactly loaded with long range snipers, especially now that Mike Dunleavy has gone down with injury.
So why am I picking the over on this team? Well, they are loaded with quality big men, and they might have the best two guard in the entire league (yes, I'm counting James Harden). If Hoiberg can keep Derrick Rose from taking so many awful mid-range shots, that will also be a big improvement (I realize that Derrick Rose is a bad 3-point shooter. The problem is that he is also a bad 20-foot-jumpshot shooter. I'll pick the lesser evil every time).
Lots of folks have concentrated on Hoiberg's offensive sets but I think they can improve defensively too. Mirotic should be better in his second year, and I really like what I've seen from Portis so far.
But y'all know I hate to bet the over. Lots of injuries to sweat, and Dunleavy's already looks bad. I'm picking the over here, but it will be close and I'm not really happy about it.
1st. Cleveland Cavaliers
Additions: Jared Cunningham, Mo Williams, Richard Jefferson, Sasha Kaun
Subtractions: Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, Brendan Haywood's contract, Kendrick Perkins, Louis Amundson
Vegas Over/Under: 56.5
My take: This may be the best team in the East. I still don't like the over.
After the "LeBattical" last year, this team steamrolled the NBA, playing 34-9 from January 15th on (and that includes 2 losses in the final 4 games, when either Irving or LeBron was resting). Only Golden State was better, and it was close.
So it might seem like a no-brainer to bet that this team will cruise to 60 wins, and bet the over. But there are red flags.
First, there are lots of injuries to deal with. Kevin Love only just started playing again, and is coming off a pretty severe injury. Ask anyone who's had a similar injury and they'll tell you it can take over a year to regain the full range of motion. It's entirely unclear how well he can "play around this" and still be as productive as last year, or if this will affect things like his offensive rebounding (which was already uncharacteristically low last year) and his outlet passing.
There still isn't even a timeline for Kyrie Irving's return from knee injury, and I don't know whether you've noticed or not, but point guard is a bit of a problem position for this team. Then there's the fact the Tristan Thompson missed the entire preseason. Will he be in shape and ready to play? If not, how long will it take?
Don't get me wrong, the Cavs will be a great team and I think they'll get 50 wins on cruise control, and along with Atlanta, they are favorites to take the East, but as I've sad before, win production isn't linear. Wins #56 and #57 are harder to come by than win #55. With the uncertainty around injuries here, I think the over is an unwise bet.
As a further note, given the uncertainties around Irving's return and Love's road to 100%, the fact that most pundits think this team has a better chance to win it all that Golden State absolutely baffles me.
So, with that all said and done....the Bulls and the Cavs square off on TNT in about 3 and a half hours. How excited are you? What a fantastic game to launch the 2015/16 NBA season with, am I right?