Nba nerd

The 2013-14 Rookies

Well, we've just passed the point where the NBA takes a break and TNT tries really hard to make All-Star Weekend as exciting as the Winter Olympics. It seems like a good time to look at this year's rookies!

Note, all of the numbers here are from games before the all-star game.

2013-14 Rookies with more than 500 minutes
NAME TM POS GP MIN WP48 WP PoP48 PTS REB AST
Plumlee, Mason BRK C 41 638 .199 2.6 3.1 19.2 10.1 1.1
Thompson, Hollis PHI GF 50 1057 .130 2.9 1.0 13.2 7.9 1.7
Adams, Steven OKC C 55 794 .121 2.0 0.7 11.1 14.0 2.1
Dellavedova, Matthew CLE PG 43 632 .097 1.3 -0.1 12.1 4.4 5.6
Antetokounmpo, Giannis MIL SF 47 1133 .092 2.2 -0.2 13.8 9.0 3.4
Jr., Tim Hardaway NYK SF 51 1068 .092 2.0 -0.2 21.0 3.4 2.0
Wolters, Nate MIL PG 41 886 .082 1.5 -0.5 15.0 5.4 7.6
Snell, Tony CHI SF 46 881 .074 1.4 -0.8 13.9 5.0 2.4
Calathes, Nick MEM PG 41 682 .065 .9 -1.1 14.5 5.0 7.7
Oladipo, Victor ORL SG 54 1723 .052 1.9 -1.5 20.8 6.6 6.0
Carter-Williams, Michael PHI PG 42 1453 .048 1.5 -1.6 23.8 7.5 9.0
Caldwell-Pope, Kentavious DET SG 50 1185 .033 .8 -2.0 13.7 4.3 1.8
Pressey, Phil BOS PG 49 680 .003 0 -3.0 8.5 3.7 9.0
Kelly, Ryan LAL PF 31 611 .002 0 -3.0 17.5 7.5 2.7
Zeller, Cody CHA PF 53 884 -.002 0 -3.1 14.5 11.6 3.1
Olynyk, Kelly BOS C 44 816 -.005 -.1 -3.2 17.8 12.1 4.1
McLemore, Ben SAC SG 53 1236 -.021 -.5 -3.7 15.7 5.7 2.0
Burke, Trey UTH PG 40 1232 -.026 -.7 -3.9 19.4 4.8 8.5
Bennett, Anthony CLE PF 41 513 -.171 -1.8 -8.4 14.4 10.8 1.0

As usual, I like to compare the lists sorted by procuction (above) to the list sorted by minutes played (below) and see how they compare:

2013-14 Rookies, sorted by minutes played (minimum 500 minutes)
NAME TM POS GP MIN WP48 WP PoP48 PTS REB AST
Oladipo, Victor ORL SG 54 1723 .052 1.9 -1.5 20.8 6.6 6.0
Carter-Williams, Michael PHI PG 42 1453 .048 1.5 -1.6 23.8 7.5 9.0
McLemore, Ben SAC SG 53 1236 -.021 -.5 -3.7 15.7 5.7 2.0
Burke, Trey UTH PG 40 1232 -.026 -.7 -3.9 19.4 4.8 8.5
Caldwell-Pope, Kentavious DET SG 50 1185 .033 .8 -2.0 13.7 4.3 1.8
Antetokounmpo, Giannis MIL SF 47 1133 .092 2.2 -0.2 13.8 9.0 3.4
Jr., Tim Hardaway NYK SF 51 1068 .092 2.0 -0.2 21.0 3.4 2.0
Thompson, Hollis PHI GF 50 1057 .130 2.9 1.0 13.2 7.9 1.7
Wolters, Nate MIL PG 41 886 .082 1.5 -0.5 15.0 5.4 7.6
Zeller, Cody CHA PF 53 884 -.002 0 -3.1 14.5 11.6 3.1
Snell, Tony CHI SF 46 881 .074 1.4 -0.8 13.9 5.0 2.4
Olynyk, Kelly BOS C 44 816 -.005 -.1 -3.2 17.8 12.1 4.1
Adams, Steven OKC C 55 794 .121 2.0 0.7 11.1 14.0 2.1
Calathes, Nick MEM PG 41 682 .065 .9 -1.1 14.5 5.0 7.7
Pressey, Phil BOS PG 49 680 .003 0 -3.0 8.5 3.7 9.0
Plumlee, Mason BRK C 41 638 .199 2.6 3.1 19.2 10.1 1.1
Dellavedova, Matthew CLE PG 43 632 .097 1.3 -0.1 12.1 4.4 5.6
Kelly, Ryan LAL PF 31 611 .002 0 -3.0 17.5 7.5 2.7
Bennett, Anthony CLE PF 41 513 -.171 -1.8 -8.4 14.4 10.8 1.0

The rookies that get the most burn don't correlate to the rookies that perform best. Some of this is due to all kinds of logical reasons a coach might have, and some of this is just questionable coaching. J.R. Smith is a) on track for one of the worst shooting seasons of all time and b) acting like a buffoon. There is simply no good reason at all that he's ahead of Tim Hardaway Jr. in the depth chart. Kendrick Perkins has been terrible for years; there's no reason he should be ahead of Nick Collison in the rotation, much less Steven Adams.

There are some big surprises here, and Adams might top the list, with Mason Plumlee right behind him (who'd have thought that the Nets best big man would be a rookie??). There are also some negative surprises, like Oladipo and Caldwell-Pope, although it is much too soon for either for us to draw grand conclusions. And then, of course, there's Bennett, who desperately needs a D-league stint.

Trey Burke has really underperformed, but I think he has a bright future because his assist-to-turnover ratio is above average, and that's a great sign for a rookie. And of course it says a lot about Utah's current plight that even as a bad player, he is a huge upgrade over JLIII.

Michael Carter Williams is probably still a lock to win the RoY award, but he's cooled down a lot. As with all things 76ers, pace is a factor; the Sixers play at an absurd pace, way ahead of second-place Minnesota, but even if you adjust for pace, his rebounding, steals and blocks are impressive. I remain really high on his future, because shooting has tons of variance, but those other factors do not. I will be very curious to see if Brown intends to maintain this pace once all of Rod Thorn's players have been washed off this roster; it wouldn't surprise me at all if they slow down a lot once they have their desired players in place.

Which brings me to another big surprise: Philly's best player is not Thad Young or Evan Turner or even MCW. It's an undrafted rookie.  Hollis Thompson is shooting well (56% true shooting), rebounding well, and doesn't turn the ball over. It looks like he could turn in to a great "3 and D" guy.

The "Greek Freak" remains intriguing, and has even gotten me to do something that I didn't think I would do this year: watch a Bucks game (I'm sorry, Milwaukee, but you lost me at "OJ Mayo"). Still, a 6'9" wing with freakish hands is fun to watch. He's still pretty raw but I'd be very high on this guy right now; he gets in foul trouble a lot, but rookies often do. He's a prime candidate to have a big second year if he gets playing time.

Predictably absent from both of these lists are Minnesota's rookies. At least I can be happy that they aren't low on list one and high on list two, although since the Wolves are now out of the playoff hunt (in every way but mathematically), that might change.