Here we go again: Love vs. Bosh

The ridiculous lack of respect that Kevin Love gets is amazing. And, you know, it's one thing to say "player X is better than Love" if you have reasons that make even a lick of sense.  For example, I once said that LeBron James is better than Love because one of the reasons Love is so good is his 3-point shooting, and if you know anything about variance in basketball, you know that shooting percentages is one of the areas with the most volatility; take away Love's 3-point shooting and he goes from fantastic to good. But the things that LBJ does to get extremely high-percentage buckets (mainly being bigger, stronger, and faster than his defenders) aren't going away anytime soon and are not very subject to variance, barring injury. I realize few people are going to disagree with saying LBJ is better than Love.  The point is that even though both have similar WP48s, I don't just blindly follow "the numbers" (my critics love to tell me to "open my eyes" and that I should "get my head out of the stats and watch some games".  Turns out, that's pretty much exactly what I do). But if you are going to convince me to ignore "the numbers", you should offer up some compelling reasons that the numbers "are lying".

But seriously, get the heck out of here with this:

In the Daily Dime Live the other night, I was posed the query of whether I thought Chris Bosh or Kevin Love is currently the better player. I chose Bosh. It isn’t really important to get in depth with my reasons. Essentially, until Love shows he’s a decent defender in a consistent manner, I feel like Chris Bosh is the better player since he’s a better scorer and a better defender. Obviously, Love’s rebounding is impressive but Bosh’s pluses just outweigh Love’s at the moment.

You've got to be kidding me, right? Bosh is a better scorer?  Here we go again with the eye-test. You see Bosh slashing to the hoop and conclude that he must be a better scorer than Love, because just like LaMarcus Aldridge, he sure does look prettier scoring.

 

Per48 Comparison of raw stats

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Bosh .103 22.6 11.5 1.9 2.9 1.9 0.5 3.8
Love .370 31.4 19.0 4.1 3.6 0.0 0.6 2.4
 
Average PF .099 19.6 12.1 2.5 2.5 1.3 1.4 4.5

 

Shooting comparison

  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA PPS FTA
Bosh 54.5% 53.1% 100.0% 55.6% 56.1% 57.4% 15.8 1.42 8.6
Love 37.5% 44.0% 14.3% 77.8% 39.1% 55.4% 19.0 1.66 21.3
 
Average PF 46.3% 48.5% 32.3% 70.9% 48.5% 52.7% 16.1 1.22 5.6

 

Sample size too small for you?  I hear you. Here's last year:

 

Per48 Comparison of raw stats

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Love .342 27.1 20.4 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.8 2.7
Bosh .135 24.6 11.0 2.5 2.4 0.8 1.0 2.9
 
Average PF .099 20.7 11.2 2.5 2.4 1.3 1.2 4.7

 

Shooting comparison

  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA PPS FTA
Love 47.0% 48.3% 41.7% 85.0% 51.3% 59.3% 18.8 1.44 9.2
Bosh 49.6% 50.2% 24.0% 81.5% 49.9% 56.9% 18.1 1.36 8.1
 
Average PF 48.5% 50.4% 36.1% 74.8% 50.9% 55.1% 16.5 1.25 5.2

 

So, Love appears to be better than Bosh in the following per48 categories: points, assists (yo, passing is part of "scoring", right?), eFG%, 3FG%, TS%, FT% and FTA (on the same number of FGAs, it should be noted; it's not just volume). Holy shit, I sure wish I could have Bosh's offensive production instead of Kevin Love's. For the record, I love Bosh, he's on my fantasy team and I bid highly for him. But I would give up Bosh for Love in a ****ing heartbeat before the other GM reconsidered and said "Wait, WTF am I thinking!?" (yes, in real life too, not just my fantasy league), because offensively I get the same results but I get a bunch of extra rebounds a game (before anyone pipes up about "stealing" rebounds: you're wrong, WP48 already counts stolen rebounds: read the FAQ).

Once again for the slow kids: The ugly baskets count too. As an aside, I am like 15-0 in pickup basketball games where I am the captain and I pick 2nd (getting picks 2 and 3 from the gym) and I know the players. This is because my opponent always takes the flashiest, most athletic wing scorer.  Then I pick two flat-footed tall guys who rebound the fuck out of the ball, don't take bad shots, and basically rock a lot of put-backs, layups, and other spectacularly BOOOOOOOOORRRRRING buckets.

I guess if it were still 2009 I probably would not have noticed the statement at all:

 

Per48 Comparison of raw stats

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Love .248 23.6 18.4 3.8 3.3 0.6 1.2 3.8
Bosh .200 31.9 14.4 3.2 3.2 1.3 0.8 3.2
 
Average PF .099 21.0 11.1 2.6 2.5 1.2 1.3 4.7

 

Shooting comparison

  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA PPS FTA
Love 45.0% 47.4% 33.0% 81.5% 47.8% 54.9% 18.1 1.30 7.7
Bosh 51.8% 52.1% 36.4% 79.7% 52.2% 59.2% 22.0 1.45 11.2
 
Average PF 47.8% 49.9% 35.0% 75.3% 50.3% 54.6% 16.8 1.25 5.4

Back then (you know, when Bosh was in his 6th season, and Love was a sophomore without 3-point range yet), Bosh was indeed the better scorer. But, you know, it isn't 2009, and Love is better than he was then (and, yes, Bosh is worse). And if Harper had claimed "Well, I think Love's 3-point shooting is going to regress a bit, and I suspect Bosh is going to have a monster bounce-back year this year", we'd have a different argument, and I'd probably just be politely pointing out that Bosh is five years older -- if I was going to bet on which one improves more, it would be Love. But if, instead, you're going to make ridiculous blanket statements like "Bosh is better a better scorer" when the data clearly suggests that the opposite is more likely to be true...

I'm willing to listen to all kinds of reasons you think [insert random favorite player] is "better" than Love (or any other of the players that WP48 ranks highly and you don't), but unless you are talking about aesthetics then "well, he looks like he's probably not that good offensively" probably shouldn't be one of your arguments unless you are ready for me to rip you a new one with, you know, the results. Because even if you could convince me that Bosh is more "talented" offensively than Love (a dubious proposition), that doesn't cut it. That and $5 will get Bosh a coffee at Starbucks.

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