Durant without Westbrook

The Thunder have just lost Kevin Durant for several months to a Jones stress fracture. We wish Durant a speedy recovery. However, this does provide us with an interesting natural experiment. Since joining the Thunder, Westbrook has played almost every game with Durant. What will he look like with Durant absent? This also lines up well with another experiment that took place last year. Westbrook missed just over a month of play. In that time, Durant had to go it without his "Pippen". How did that turn out?

Durant and Westbrook

Barring his rookie season, where he actually was quite terrible, Durant and Westbrook have pretty much always shared the court. This has lead to the belief that Westbrook helps Durant. As a ball distributor, this is problematic. Westbrook's assist to turnover ratio has never exceeded 2.5, which is the average for an NBA point guard. Additionally, Westbrook takes a lot of shots and is not that great at making them. But overall, he's been slightly better than an average NBA point guard (let me emphasize the word 'slightly'). So, when Durant lost his wingman for a month, how did his shooting fare?

A reminder, True Shooting Percentage examines a player's shooting efficiency taking into account three-point shots and free throws.

Kevin Durant posted the best True Shooting Percentage of his career without Westbrook! Now, I wouldn't take this as proof that Westbrook doesn't help Durant. Rather, it seems more to point to the notion that Westbrook is not as integral to Durant's success as we're led to believe. We're told Westbrook draws pressure, spreads the floor, distributes the ball. Without him present though, Durant was not only able to match his normal performance, but exceed it!


There's more. Another myth we're often told is the "Usage tale." This myth says that when a players shots per game increase, their shooting efficiency drops. However, we've never found compelling evidence that this is true. And it turns out that Durant's shooting levels with Westbrook off the court were, unsurprisingly, the highest of his career!

Conclusion

Durant and Westbrook have been tied at the hip for most of their careers. The numbers have said Durant is an amazing talent and out-of-this-world scorer. The numbers have said Westbrook is a good-but-not-great player who shouldn't shoot so much. Of course, it's hard to untangle the two players given that they play together so much. We got a brief glimpse of Durant without Westbrook. Soon, we'll get a taste of Westbrook without Durant. I'm very curious to see how that pans out.

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