Nba nerd

Three Team Trade, Three Takes

In a three-team trade today, the Boston Celtics sent Jordan Crawford and MarShon Brooks to Golden State, the Miami Heat sent Joel Anthony and two draft picks (the pick will become two second rounders if the 76ers are lottery team both this year and next) to Boston, and the Golden State Warriors sent Toney Douglas to the Miami Heat.

The Celtics are also getting a future first-round pick from Philly (which will become 2 second-rounders if Philly stays in the lottery the next two years) and another second-round pick.

So three teams got together and made a trade, I thought it made sense to gather the opinions of three BoxScore Geeks.

Patrick's Take

The Heat's part of this deal is obvious: Anthony's minutes have, by now, all been soaked up by the much more capable Chris Andersen, and this move saves them quite a bit of money. Anthony makes 3.8 million and has a player option for next year; Douglas makes 1.6 million and has no option. It saves the Heat luxury tax money this year and opens up the possibility for the Heat to acquire a mid-level wing player in free agency, since every wing player not named "LeBron" or "Dwyane" has an expiring contract this year. I hear some Heat fans speaking about Trevor Ariza as if the deal were already done.

The Golden State part is also obvious; Toney Douglas is terrible and everyone in GSW management has a heart attack any time Curry takes a fall. Acquiring a young player having a career year to be his backup is a no-brainer move on their part.

Which brings me to Boston, and the "What the fuck are they doing!?" part of this trade. Generally, I think it's a good idea to trade present assets for future assets of more value, but this trade makes no sense. I understand that Rondo is coming back, and with the acquisition of Bayless, the Celtics have extra point guards, and it makes sense to trade one for future assets. But of the three point guards that Boston has lying around, it makes the most sense to ship Bayless or Bradley. Because he's a veteran, Bayless is what he is. He's never going to develop into a star and he's not a factor in the team's long-term plans. Bradley is a shoot-first guard who doesn't have the height or score well enough to play shooting guard. As a young player getting better, Crawford is the last piece that Ainge should be shipping out in this deal. If you want to trade future assets for present ones, they should be shopping vets like Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries, not young, cheap players who are getting better.

Furthermore, the returns aren't great. Yes, there is a decent chance that the Philly pick actually stays a first rounder but if it does, by definition it will be a late one. So Boston essentially just gave away a piece of their future for 2 or 3 picks that have...a small chance of being part of their future. People talk about the treadmill of mediocrity, but it's more like the hamster wheel of ineptitude.

Arturo's Take

Bullshit. At 25, Jordan Crawford is who he is. He's a mediocre point guard who Brad Stevens helped have the best season of his career so far (0.109 WP48: congrats Jordan, you're an average player). He's also completely redundant to the Celtics rotation going forward, a complete and utter liability defensively, and he's being traded at the absolute height of his trade value. Not only that, but he's being traded for an actual honest to goodness productive center in Joel Anthony who can actually play defense in the post and what could very well be a first round pick next year from Philly (since I think they easily make the playoffs in the East in 2015). This move also allows the Celtics to stop playing Humphries and Sullinger out of position at the five and gives us less Kelly and Vitor (this is a huge win). The final part of this that makes sense for the Celtics is that they get another number one pick to dangle Daryl Morey's way in a possible Bass for Asik swap. 

For Golden State, It's a nice trade that shores up their bench, but they need to hope to the basketball gods that Crawford doesn't revert. They give up nothing though.

For Miami, the missing angle for Patrick is this tells me that Greg Oden might be very,very close to being ready or that they're making a play for Bynum. Possibly both.

Dre's Take

This is actually a pretty meh trade. None of the players were major players. The picks are likely second rounders. It's getting news because all mid-season multi-team trades get news. That said, let's break it down team by team.

Boston: I like this trade for them. I actually do. Pretty much this is identical to the Deng trade. The Celtics have a decent but not great player on an expiring deal. And either he'll want a raise, or won't want to stick around when Rondo returns. Rather than lose him for nothing, they picked up future assets. I'm not quite sure where Arturo's optimism for Joel Anthony is coming from. Given his age and recent performance, I wouldn't be too excited. Still, the trade is sound from purely an assets based theory.

Golden State: Golden State turns a terrible Toney Douglas into a quality backup for Curry? Remember a few years ago when Golden State was doing silly moves like signing Kwame Brown? They seem to have found their footing. Excellent move on their part.

Miami: Most trades have to have a loser. I think Miami may be said loser. Boston wins long, Golden State wins short, and Miami does what? I guess they clear their books a little, but it cost a lot. If the Heat hope to keep Bron and Wade around for another run, they'll need at least a little depth. It will be hard to afford as both will be getting raises, and more than a few teams have money to bid on them. Unless Riley has a pre-arranged deal to spend the exact cap that Miami gains, this was a loss.

Also Arturo being optimistic on Oden and Joel Anthony is just silly. Seriously, neither player should come into consideration when analyzing this trade.

Crawford was expiring? This changes my whole opinion! I thought he was on the third of four years!

Meh, I'll leave my crazy knee-jerk reaction up there.
As a Wizard's fan the analysis on JCraw seems to be missing the crucial ingredient that he will go back to being a backup. He does not have a mindset capable of accepting a backup role. His "career year" smells very similar to his year last year before Wall came back and Beal learned that NBA plays defense.

Reversion is a guarantee, and I think Boston knew that with Rondo coming back they should cut bait while they could. That is a very solid trade they pulled for him and the exact opposite how the always terrible Washington front office handled it.
I think I just lost all respect for Auturo..."an actual honest to goodness productive center in Joel Anthony." Having actually watched him play significant minutes just 2 years ago, I think i puked a little. I hope the Celtics organization is smart enough not to subject their fans to that sort of asthetic torment.

I on the other hand, hope they do play him, since I love watching Shaqtin a Fool.
remember, the ugly points count the same as the pretty ones? Joel had some solid years. Still I think they won't play him much cause it seems he's past his prime but who knows...
He should be better than Shaqtin a Fool favorite Kendrick "Tragic Brunson" Perkins, though!
Arturo's analysis of the Celts always has a few Tommy-isms.

Dre and I are different; we are biased towards when analyzing our "home" teams (Minny and Denver), but in a pessimistic way.
@ Patrick, How sad are you that your team botched the Batum deal so badly and that Portland had a decent enough management to keep him. Could you imagine having him vs brewer?????? It's ok to cry a little. I'm a klove fan and a lakers fan and in 1.5 years I'll be a klove lakers fan :P
17 Banners tend to increase your level of trust in the home team just a little bit.

08: .062 WP48
09: .077 WP48
10: .113 WP48
11: .097 WP48
12: .127 WP48
at Center for Joel Anthony. I'll happily take it over Sully having to play Center or the disaster that is Kelly and Vitor.
I agree with Arturo about Crawford. But I'm laughing about his optimism for Anthony's "production". Some funny homerism.

Anyone down on Marshon or Crawford because they are leaving the womb of Brad Stevens needs to remember they are going to Golden State. I have complete confidence they will instantly become knock down shooters like every other perimeter player that goes to the Warriors.

This move only makes sense for the Heat if they resign their main guys, which if they made this deal, I'm assuming they have some pretty strong indicators.
#BynumtoMiami, obviously clearing money to sign him.
I am with Arturo (mostly) on this one. I like the trade for Boston, mostly because I believe most of JCraw's improvement is based on his early hot shooting. He has regressed a bunch now (a la Nick Young), though I do think the assist improvement is sustainable. If I am Boston and I have Rondo and Bradley (who I think is better than his WP indicates--not good, but decent), I am totally fine turning Crawford into two second rounders. That one is a possible first rounder is a bonus. I also think the financial thing is underrated for Miami. If you are an owner, saving $10 million while not costing your team ANY wins is a huge victory. With LeBron staying around, Miami does not have a great need for picks, $10 million in savings is worth it for Arison. For Golden State this is a clear win, as everyone agrees. No matter what you think of Crawford, his is better than the crap that Jackson currently has to trot out when Curry sits.

Finally, why does everyone think Bynum is going to Miami? This is a media created story. Bynum is a chemistry killer, so the three teams that have great chemistry (Miami, San Antonio, and Indiana) will not be interested. Riley has even said that the Heat aren't interested, and I don't blame him. Besides, if you saw Oden last night, you have to believe that is option 1. He looked really good, and has been covered here extensively, Birdman is also quite good. I would WAY rather have either of them. I am an Oden believer and I think he will be a big difference maker for them against Indiana in the playoffs (and I am fully prepared to eat those words in four months).
Joel had 4 mediocre season before falling apart this season and even this season he is a big step up over the numbers Olynyk is putting up. If he can return to mediocre, that's a giant step forward for Boston.

You guys always say; going from bad to average is just as big an improvement as going from average to great. Joel Anthony could easily be the bad to average step.
From Patrick's take on Boston: I thought that December 15 was the deadline for trading players that could then be traded again before trade deadline? If so, then the Celtics couldn't have traded Bayless as they acquired him after that time. Otherwise, good takes by all.
Ordinarily, I generally agree with Patrick's take on things, but he was way off on this one ... and the amount of time left on Crawford's contract is irrelevant. My immediate reaction was that Boston FLEECED everyone else on this deal and Patrick thinks it makes sense for everyone but Boston?

Joel Anthony is an average player on a fairly reasonable deal with one year left (player option he will probably take) ... but average centers are valuable! (short supply of tall people and all) This is particularly true for Boston as Arturo pointed out. It isn't like Boston wants Anthony to be a long term starter for them. He has barely played this year and his minutes have been falling for years because he doesn't really fit Miami's style (and Birdman is better).

And all of a sudden Patrick thinks Jordan Crawford has potential? Again Arturo is right: we already know who Crawford is (and it ain't great) and Boston is trading him at the height of his value. The only reason he is even average this year is that Boston managed to get him to provide some other types of production (largely assists) to make up for his generally poor shooting (and tendency to want to shoot alot despite the poor shooting). A gunner with average career 2pt % and below average 3 pt % that will want a much higher contract than he's actually worth (which someone will pay because NBA teams are dumb)? Where do I sign up?

As for Marshon Brooks, we might wonder whether he could have been an average/slightly above average player if had gotten a fair chance (and not been on disfunctional Nets teams), but he isn't good enough right now and is clearly not in Boston's long term plans.

Turning those guys into any kind of draft picks is worth it, especially one that could be in the first round! Yet Patrick also poo-poo's the deal because it will be a "late" pick? What counts as late? I think it is more likely to be around 18-22 if it is a first rounder, which I consider to be more of a mid-first round pick. In any event, wages adherents (of which I am one) have consistently felt quality players can be had with later picks, so why should where the pick is matter that much?

It really seems like Patrick took all of the things he normally advocates for and values from a Wages perspective and simply ignored them for his "take". Get back on your game, man!

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