The Timberwolves: I'm Just Sayin'.

The Timberwolves, who are "without their two best players," are now 4-1. Indiana is the only playoff team they have faced, so there's that. And tonight they play the Bulls. Still, a lof of folks are...surprised. Like this guy at Yahoo (h/t CanisHoopus):

Though many expected the Timberwolves to stumble as Love worked his way back from a broken right hand, coach Rick Adelman's team has proven to be one of this season's biggest surprises in getting off to a 4-1 start.

Here's hoping their play is as sharp as their dress when they return!

The bolding is mine. Here's me about 10 days ago:

I said this before, but then Love got hurt. My quick surprise prediction: the Wolves are not going to suck without Love. This whole roster is revamped, these are not the same losers that went 2-9 without Love. I guess I touched on that when I covered the Suns, who employ the actual players who are going to be terrible without Love (like they were last year). I think this is a solid .500 team without Love, maybe better given the schedule that seems to benefit them.

I mean, I'm not really saying anything here...but I'm just sayin'. Why doesn't anyone listen to me!?

And while I am on this topic, this nonsense about the Wolves being "without their two best players" just has to stop. I like Ricky Rubio (who doesn't like Unicorns? Only Black Mambas), but this team's two best players are, without a doubt, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko. Rubio, who was a pleasant surprise last year, doesn't come close. Rubio will certainly be an improvement over Ridnour when he returns (although Ridnour has been shooting on fire so far), and if Rubio has actually improved his shooting during this rehab, then he'll certainly be a great player. But Kirilenko is tearing up the league right now. It's not the thing a lot of people notice because it isn't all done with "Yay! Points!", but he's been dominant. He's playing 2 positions, defending 3 positions, blocking shots, getting steals, passing, has nearly 70% true shooting, he's just all over the place. At this pace he deserves to be Defensive Player of the Year -- he's got 34 rebounds, 11 blocks, 8 steals and 2 (TWO!) fouls through 5 games. Those are crazy numbers.

On a side note, a casino here in Vegas gave me 50:1 for the Wolves to win the Western Conference. That's nuts. Before the season, the odds were 40:1. Then they opened 3-1 without Kevin Love and the odds got better for me, going to 50:1? What, now?

Do I think the Wolves will win the West? Hell no. They'll have too much trouble in coming games against playoff teams (like tonight's tilt against the Bulls) without Love to keep this up, so they'll likely be too far behind the Spurs and Thunder to catch up, once he's back (and that's assuming he jumps back in at full strength). But I'd certainly give the Wolves a 5-10% chance at it (let's say Chase Budinger has a breakout year, plays like a star, and gets the bulk of minutes at SG), which means if I am getting 50:1, that's between 250% and 500% on my money! I wouldn't mortgage the house on a bet like this (like I would have taking the over on 38 wins before the season started), but that's what we call a "high-variance +EV bet" in the poker world -- definitely worth a couple of hundred bucks.

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