The Heat: The Dynasty Trap

The Numbers

NBA Rank: 4
Conference Rank: 1
Miami Heat

First Seed

57.2%

Division

84.5%

Top 4

92.7%

Over (60.0)

36.9%

Under (60.0)

63.1%

Playoffs

99.7%

I've paid my dues, time after time.

I've done my sentence, but committed no crime.

And bad mistakes ‒ I've made a few.

I've had my share of sand kicked in my face, but I've come through.
Freddie Mercury, in the lyrics to "We are the Champions."

The Brief

The Heat have been an amazing team since LeBron's decision. They've had three consecutive finals (and won twice) and stand poised to return again. Yet, like all dynasties, they're losing a step. Can they keep it up this season, and do they have any shot at LeBron's desire for "countless" rings?

The Story

When LeBron James decided to take his talents to South Beach, he helped make one of the greatest wing duos since Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. The results were immediate. The Heat made the finals and looked like early favorites. But the karma police made sure Dirk got his ring. Next year, they managed to beat the Thunder handily in their second finals trip. Finally, last season they got Allen to channel his old self to win an epic seven game finals against the Spurs. The analysis for this is for the most part pretty easy - LeBron and Wade are really good. But let's inspect the rest of the Heat as well.

Last Year

Player	Minutes	Age	WP48	Wins
LeBron James	2877	29	.325	19.5
Chris Bosh	2454	29	.100	5.1
Dwyane Wade	2391	32	.219	10.9
Mario Chalmers	2068	27	.123	5.3
Ray Allen	2035	38	.141	6.0
Shane Battier	1786	35	.132	4.9
Norris Cole	1590	25	-.033	-1.1
Udonis Haslem	1414	33	.133	3.9
Mike Miller	900	33	.193	3.6
Rashard Lewis	792	34	.026	.4
Chris Andersen	624	35	.200	2.6
Joel Anthony	566	31	.107	1.3
James Jones	221	33	-.002	0
Juwan Howard	51	40	-.156	-.2
Jarvis Varnado	40	25	-.135	-.2
Josh Harrellson	31	25	-.084	-.1
Terrel Harris	29	25	-.015	0
Dexter Pittman	12	25	.149	0

Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

Wade and LeBron kept this team running. On their own, they were better than an average eastern conference team. Chris Bosh, who has never quite performed at his Toronto levels since joining the Heat, was still a solid big. Battier, Haslem, and Miller kept up their M.O. of being solid rotation players, despite limited minutes. The key differences last season were Ray Allen and Chris Andersen. These players added two strong skill sets - shooting and rebounding -- that helped the Heat stay at a top level. The team wasn't without flaws: Norris Cole and Rashard Lewis have no business being on the team. But despite those minor flaws, the end result was a contender that cemented its status as a dynasty when the team took down the Spurs. But can they keep it up?

This Year

Player	Position	Minutes	Age	WP48	Wins
LeBron James	3.5	2959	29	.299	18.4
Chris Bosh	4.6	2699	29	.092	5.2
Dwyane Wade	2.0	2238	32	.215	10.0
Mario Chalmers	1.0	2191	27	.109	5.0
Ray Allen	2.0	1884	38	.140	5.5
Shane Battier	3.0	1515	35	.130	4.1
Udonis Haslem	3.9	1327	33	.102	2.8
Chris Andersen	4.8	1157	35	.230	5.6
Norris Cole	1.0	946	25	-.053	-1.0
James Jones	2.8	767	33	.101	1.6
Michael Beasley	3.0	648	25	-.054	-.7
Joel Anthony	4.8	505	31	.093	1.0
Roger Mason	1.5	381	33	.031	.2
Rashard Lewis	3.4	269	34	.014	.1
Greg Oden	5.0	185	26	.056	.2

Indicates that the player is new to the team.

The Heat will last as long as LeBron and Wade do. We've got them projected to do very well next season. Chalmers and Bosh are still at a good age to help. The major problem the Heat face is that their bench is really old. Allen, Battier, Haslem and Andersen are a great set of players to complement a star. The problem is that they're ticking time bombs given their age. In the offseason the Heat decided to recruit Beasley, Mason, and Oden. A headcase, an old player, and a walking injury. These won't set the Heat back too much, but they certainly won't keep them going. The Bulls second three-peat relied on an influx of talent. They retooled their rotation and swapped out Horace Grant with Dennis Rodman. If the Heat want to keep the titles coming, they will need a similar strategy. It didn't happen this offseason and there is an expiration date on how long this team can stay great.

The Wrap

None of us were that excited about doing the Heat preview. The truth of the NBA is great teams tend to stay great (at least for a while). And this tends to be because of great players. It's not a debate anymore. LeBron James is one of the greatest players to ever grace the game. Everyone agrees. Even the NBA writers, who showed their pettiness by keeping Bron from winning the 2011 MVP, have come back. The only real question is if Riley and the Heat can keep a semi-decent core of players around Bron to keep the Heat a contender. This year, the answer is yes. But the current roster does have a lot of question marks that will need to be answered soon.

Given the fact that LeBron and Wade will almost assuredly opt out (even if they stay with the Heat, opting out means more money for each of them), I think it is actually smart of Riley not to go after too many "missing pieces" this year. This way, the Heat have many options this summer should the unthinkable happen, and James leaves for Cleveland or L.A.

I agree that guys like Allen, Battier, and Andersen would be disastrous eggs to put in your basket for a longer term but all of them are on cheap and/or expiring deals. This summer, the Heat will have lots of interesting choices, whether the big two re-sign or not. It's then that we should evaluate the strength of the "sidekicks". In the meantime, this team is a strong finals candidate and I can't really find much fault with their role players.

Having said that, if something ridiculous like the Bosh-Asik trade I keep hearing rumors about happens, then the Bulls should look the hell out, because that 72-win record is in jeopardy.

Andres Alvarez on Oct 25th, 2013