The Numbers
- NBA Rank: 9
Conference Rank: 3 - Atlanta Hawks
Martyrs, my friend, have to choose between being forgotten, mocked or used. As for being understood - never.
Albert Camus
The Brief
After a brief glimmer of hope the Hawks took a bit of a slide. However, last season saw them improve. In the offseason, they've improved their team even more. As such, we think the Hawks will be a top seed out east.
The Story
Only a few short seasons ago the Hawks had a 53 win season and looked to be on the verge of being a contender. Age, injury and the insistence on paying an old and overrated Joe Johnson kept the team from staying there. In the last few seasons the Hawks have managed to start seeing straight. They let go of Joe Johnson, got a mostly healthy Al Horford, and actually look to be in good shape. They also took a cue from other teams and took an underrated player from the Bulls to help them out.
Last Year
Player | Minutes | Age | WP48 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|
Al Horford | 2756 | 27 | .138 | 7.9 |
Josh Smith | 2683 | 28 | .065 | 3.7 |
Jeff Teague | 2628 | 25 | .106 | 5.8 |
Kyle Korver | 2259 | 32 | .179 | 8.4 |
Devin Harris | 1421 | 30 | .114 | 3.4 |
DeShawn Stevenson | 1158 | 32 | .063 | 1.5 |
Zaza Pachulia | 1134 | 29 | .140 | 3.3 |
Louis Williams | 1119 | 27 | .086 | 2.0 |
Ivan Johnson | 1035 | 29 | .090 | 2.0 |
Anthony Tolliver | 963 | 28 | .060 | 1.2 |
John Jenkins | 902 | 22 | .085 | 1.5 |
Dahntay Jones | 381 | 32 | -.056 | -.4 |
Mike Scott | 376 | 25 | .060 | .5 |
Johan Petro | 352 | 27 | .006 | 0 |
Anthony Morrow | 301 | 28 | -.001 | 0 |
Shelvin Mack | 268 | 23 | .050 | .4 |
Jannero Pargo | 113 | 34 | -.082 | -.9 |
Jeremy Tyler | 5 | 22 | -.180 | -.3 |
Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.
The Hawks were a mostly mediocre team, which their 44 wins reflect. But there were some positive notes. Al Horford has been a pretty solid big. Jeff Teague has played well as a young player. Kyle Korver was a great pickup. Their only major concerns were age and the looming Josh Smith offseason. Luckily, we're happy with how the Hawks handled this.
This Year
Player | Position | Minutes | Age | WP48 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Al Horford | 4.9 | 2705 | 27 | .172 | 9.7 |
Jeff Teague | 1.1 | 2661 | 25 | .130 | 7.2 |
Paul Millsap | 4.0 | 2560 | 29 | .140 | 7.5 |
Kyle Korver | 2.5 | 2199 | 32 | .138 | 6.3 |
Elton Brand | 4.6 | 1914 | 34 | .108 | 4.3 |
John Jenkins | 2.3 | 1538 | 22 | .108 | 3.5 |
Louis Williams | 1.5 | 1348 | 27 | .095 | 2.7 |
Dennis Schroeder | 1.0 | 1175 | 20 | .055 | 1.4 |
Damien Wilkins | 1.0 | 1095 | 33 | .069 | 1.6 |
DeMarre Carroll | 3.0 | 961 | 27 | .149 | 3.0 |
James Johnson | 1.0 | 878 | 26 | -.037 | -.7 |
Jared Cunningham | 2.0 | 779 | 22 | -.016 | -.3 |
Royal Ivey | 1.0 | 698 | 31 | .085 | 1.2 |
Cartier Martin | 1.0 | 694 | 28 | .046 | .7 |
Gustavo Ayon | 4.7 | 658 | 28 | .135 | 1.9 |
Shelvin Mack | 1.1 | 513 | 23 | .084 | .9 |
Mike Scott | 4.5 | 387 | 25 | .068 | .5 |
Pero Antic | 4.0 | 274 | 31 | .055 | .3 |
Wil
Indicates that the player is new to the team.
The offseason brought Elton Brand for a perfectly reasonable contract - 1 year at $4 million. They also got two great pickups (Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll). What really has me excited about the Hawks is the following: only four players have multi-year deals at more than $5 million a year: Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, Paul Milsap, and Al Horford. In short, this team has only invested in their above average players. They're also in great space from a salary cap persective. This means that not only does this team stand a great chance to compete this season, they look great moving forward.
The Wrap
When you tell people they have a 47 win team with great cap space, they don't get too excited. To get better than this requires a star player. Yes, Horford is a good big -- he's just not a superstar. To go up another level, the Hawks need to grab a star. It had looked like Josh Smith could be that player, but he's turned into a Melo impersonator. As such the Hawks look like they are going to copy the plan the Rockets have taken: make your team competitive, don't take on any bad contracts, wait for a star to become available. We'll see if they stick to it.
The Second Opinion Patrick's thoughts
Some hawks fans on twitter that were trying to console their team were making the claim that Millsap is, statistically, exactly the same as Smith. And if you just look at raw numbers, that looks true:
POS | Min | WP48 | PoP48 | Wins | PTS | DRB | ORB | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF | |
Millsap | PF | 2375 | .150 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 22.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4.7 |
Smith | PF | 2683 | .123 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 23.7 | 9.1 | 2.4 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3.1 |
Average PF | PF | 1698 | .099 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 20.4 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 11.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.5 |
Fortunately, we like to look at more than that:
FG% | 2FG% | 3FG% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA | 3FGA | PPS | FTA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Millsap | 49.0% | 49.8% | 33.3% | 74.2% | 49.8% | 55.0% | 17.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | 7.2 |
Smith | 46.5% | 49.8% | 30.3% | 51.7% | 49.1% | 50.1% | 21.1 | 3.6 | 1.12 | 5.7 |
Average PF | 47.9% | 49.7% | 35.1% | 71.3% | 50.1% | 53.8% | 16.8 | 2.1 | 1.21 | 4.9 |
Millsap is better than Smith. There, I've said it. Smith just isn't very good at putting the ball in the hole -- and everyone knows why. His tendency to shoot long twos that he isn't good at it is well established and heavily lamented. In Millsap, they've acquired a forward who has much wiser shot selection.
Fans will complain about spacing, but that's a fallacy. That's what you pay Kyle Korver for. Since the arrival of Kevin Love, it seems like everyone believes it has to be your power forward stretching the floor, as if other players can't also create spacing. That's nonsense. A three-point shot is worth three even if your point guard is shooting it, and when defenses start rotating, even a wing player can draw an opposing forward out to contest a three point shot. It's not as if every NBA offense needs to run a pick-and-pop scheme with the power forward. There are other ways to create spacing.
I really like this team and I'm excited to see how far it can go.