The Hawks: The Forgotten

The Numbers

  • Average Seed
    5
  • 📉 Pessimist
    40.5 wins
  • Realist
    46.9 wins
  • 📈 Optimist
    53.3 wins
First Seed
 
4.3%
Division
 
11.5%
Top 4
👍 Over (40.0)
👎 Under (40.0)
 
14.4%
🎀 Playoffs

Martyrs, my friend, have to choose between being forgotten, mocked or used. As for being understood - never.

Albert Camus

The Brief

After a brief glimmer of hope the Hawks took a bit of a slide. However, last season saw them improve. In the offseason, they've improved their team even more. As such, we think the Hawks will be a top seed out east.

The Story

Only a few short seasons ago the Hawks had a 53 win season and looked to be on the verge of being a contender. Age, injury and the insistence on paying an old and overrated Joe Johnson kept the team from staying there. In the last few seasons the Hawks have managed to start seeing straight. They let go of Joe Johnson, got a mostly healthy Al Horford, and actually look to be in good shape. They also took a cue from other teams and took an underrated player from the Bulls to help them out.

Last Year

  • Actual Wins: 44
  • Expected Wins: 40.1
  • Lucky Wins: 2.3

 

Player Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Al Horford 2756 27 .138 7.9
Josh Smith 2683 28 .065 3.7
Jeff Teague 2628 25 .106 5.8
Kyle Korver 2259 32 .179 8.4
Devin Harris 1421 30 .114 3.4
DeShawn Stevenson 1158 32 .063 1.5
Zaza Pachulia 1134 29 .140 3.3
Louis Williams 1119 27 .086 2.0
Ivan Johnson 1035 29 .090 2.0
Anthony Tolliver 963 28 .060 1.2
John Jenkins 902 22 .085 1.5
Dahntay Jones 381 32 -.056 -.4
Mike Scott 376 25 .060 .5
Johan Petro 352 27 .006 0
Anthony Morrow 301 28 -.001 0
Shelvin Mack 268 23 .050 .4
Jannero Pargo 113 34 -.082 -.9
Jeremy Tyler 5 22 -.180 -.3

 

Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

  • 40.1 total Wins Produced
  • 9 players leaving
    (8120 minutes, 12.0 wins)

The Hawks were a mostly mediocre team, which their 44 wins reflect. But there were some positive notes. Al Horford has been a pretty solid big. Jeff Teague has played well as a young player. Kyle Korver was a great pickup. Their only major concerns were age and the looming Josh Smith offseason. Luckily, we're happy with how the Hawks handled this.

This Year

  • Projected Wins: 46.9
  • Conference Rank: 3
  • % Playoffs: 89.3

 

Player Position Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Al Horford 4.9 2705 27 .172 9.7
Jeff Teague 1.1 2661 25 .130 7.2
Paul Millsap 4.0 2560 29 .140 7.5
Kyle Korver 2.5 2199 32 .138 6.3
Elton Brand 4.6 1914 34 .108 4.3
John Jenkins 2.3 1538 22 .108 3.5
Louis Williams 1.5 1348 27 .095 2.7
Dennis Schroeder 1.0 1175 20 .055 1.4
Damien Wilkins 1.0 1095 33 .069 1.6
DeMarre Carroll 3.0 961 27 .149 3.0
James Johnson 1.0 878 26 -.037 -.7
Jared Cunningham 2.0 779 22 -.016 -.3
Royal Ivey 1.0 698 31 .085 1.2
Cartier Martin 1.0 694 28 .046 .7
Gustavo Ayon 4.7 658 28 .135 1.9
Shelvin Mack 1.1 513 23 .084 .9
Mike Scott 4.5 387 25 .068 .5
Pero Antic 4.0 274 31 .055 .3

Wil

 

Indicates that the player is new to the team.

  • 📅 44.4 WP last year
    by these players
  • 🔀 2.7 WP (roster changes)
  • 4.4 WP (age/experience)

The offseason brought Elton Brand for a perfectly reasonable contract - 1 year at $4 million. They also got two great pickups (Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll). What really has me excited about the Hawks is the following: only four players have multi-year deals at more than $5 million a year: Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, Paul Milsap, and Al Horford. In short, this team has only invested in their above average players. They're also in great space from a salary cap persective. This means that not only does this team stand a great chance to compete this season, they look great moving forward. 

The Wrap

When you tell people they have a 47 win team with great cap space, they don't get too excited. To get better than this requires a star player. Yes, Horford is a good big -- he's just not a superstar. To go up another level, the Hawks need to grab a star. It had looked like Josh Smith could be that player, but he's turned into a Melo impersonator. As such the Hawks look like they are going to copy the plan the Rockets have taken: make your team competitive, don't take on any bad contracts, wait for a star to become available. We'll see if they stick to it.

Some hawks fans on twitter that were trying to console their team were making the claim that Millsap is, statistically, exactly the same as Smith. And if you just look at raw numbers, that looks true:

  POS Min WP48 PoP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Millsap PF 2375 .150 1.6 7.4 22.9 7.6 3.6 11.2 4.1 2.8 1.6 2.1 4.7
Smith PF 2683 .123 0.7 6.9 23.7 9.1 2.4 11.4 5.7 4.0 2.4 1.7 3.1
Average PF PF 1698 .099 0.0 3.5 20.4 8.3 3.5 11.8 2.9 2.6 1.3 1.4 4.5

Fortunately, we like to look at more than that:

  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA PPS FTA
Millsap 49.0% 49.8% 33.3% 74.2% 49.8% 55.0% 17.7 0.8 1.30 7.2
Smith 46.5% 49.8% 30.3% 51.7% 49.1% 50.1% 21.1 3.6 1.12 5.7
Average PF 47.9% 49.7% 35.1% 71.3% 50.1% 53.8% 16.8 2.1 1.21 4.9

Millsap is better than Smith. There, I've said it. Smith just isn't very good at putting the ball in the hole -- and everyone knows why. His tendency to shoot long twos that he isn't good at it is well established and heavily lamented. In Millsap, they've acquired a forward who has much wiser shot selection.

Fans will complain about spacing, but that's a fallacy. That's what you pay Kyle Korver for. Since the arrival of Kevin Love, it seems like everyone believes it has to be your power forward stretching the floor, as if other players can't also create spacing. That's nonsense. A three-point shot is worth three even if your point guard is shooting it, and when defenses start rotating, even a wing player can draw an opposing forward out to contest a three point shot. It's not as if every NBA offense needs to run a pick-and-pop scheme with the power forward. There are other ways to create spacing.

I really like this team and I'm excited to see how far it can go.

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