The Cavaliers: The Wild Card

Think this prediction is ridiculous? Prove you can do better and enter the Boxscore Geeks Fan Prediction Challenge.

The Numbers

  • Average Seed
    7
  • 📉 Pessimist
    31.9 wins
  • Realist
    42.0 wins
  • 📈 Optimist
    52.1 wins
First Seed
 
5.8%
Division
 
15.6%
Top 4
 
29.6%
👍 Over (40.5)
👎 Under (40.5)
🎀 Playoffs

As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.

Albert Einstein

The Brief

Last season the Cavs were bad. Kyrie and Varejao couldn't stay on the court. The rebuilding process has been arduous for Cleveland. Despite a mediocre draft, we think the Cavs are on their way to being a threat again. Expect them to make the playoffs this year -- and in a few years, this core could make some noise.

The Story

Despite Dan Gilbert's promises to the contrary, since the loss of LeBron the Cavs have not, in-fact, won a title. Rather, they have struggled to win 25 games. In spite of winning the draft lottery twice, the Cavs still haven't found the same glory as when they had their old number one pick. Let's examine the wreckage of last season.

Last Year

  • Actual Wins: 24
  • Expected Wins: 32.3
  • Lucky Wins: -4.8

 

Player Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Tristan Thompson 2564 22 .157 8.4
Alonzo Gee 2541 26 .033 1.7
Kyrie Irving 2048 21 .110 4.7
Tyler Zeller 2033 24 -.021 -.9
Dion Waiters 1756 22 -.024 -.9
C.J. Miles 1364 26 .046 1.3
Shaun Livingston 1135 28 .141 4.3
Wayne Ellington 985 26 .118 4.1
Daniel Gibson 919 27 -.005 -.1
Anderson Varejao 901 31 .322 6.0
Luke Walton 857 33 .151 2.7
Marreese Speights 721 26 .027 .7
Omri Casspi 503 25 .145 1.5
Jeremy Pargo 447 27 -.083 -.8
Kevin Jones 334 23 .041 .3
Donald Sloan 257 26 .017 .1
Samardo Samuels 196 24 -.170 -.7
Jon Leuer 91 24 .010 0
Chris Quinn 78 29 -.144 -.2

 

Indicates that the player is no longer with the team.

  • 32.3 total Wins Produced
  • 7 players leaving
    (4139 minutes, 10.0 wins)

Let's start with a bright spot -- Tristan Thompson had a really good season last year. The sad part was the rest of the team was either a) bad or b) not on the court! Varejao continued to show his greatness, but also his inability to stay healthy. All in all, it was a pretty disappointing season for a young team with some good pieces. Has the offseason been friendlier?

This Year

 

  • Projected Wins: 42.0
  • Conference Rank: 6
  • % Playoffs: 65.9
Player Position Minutes Age WP48 Wins
Tristan Thompson 4.3 2795 22 .133 7.8
Kyrie Irving 1.1 2529 21 .141 7.4
Jarrett Jack 1.7 2397 30 .086 4.3
Dion Waiters 1.9 2313 22 -.001 0
Earl Clark 3.8 1880 26 .050 2.0
Andrew Bynum 5.0 1622 26 .241 8.1
Anderson Varejao 4.8 1421 31 .238 7.0
Tyler Zeller 5.0 1239 24 -.009 -.2
Anthony Bennett 4.0 1013 20 .070 1.5
Alonzo Gee 2.8 822 26 .081 1.4
C.J. Miles 2.7 694 26 .008 .1
Sergey Karasev 3.0 541 20 -.044 -.5
Carrick Felix 2.0 408 23 .080 .7
DeSagana Diop 1.0 226 31 .011 .1
Henry Sims 1.0 5 23 .244 0

 

Indicates that the player is new to the team.

  • 📅 43.6 WP last year
    by these players
  • 🔀 7.5 WP (roster changes)
  • 3.1 WP (age/experience)

We won't lie, the Bennett pick stumped us. We're not expecting a major impact out of him. We are expecting Tristan Thompson to stay great. We're also expecting Kyrie to step it up a bit. Finally, between Varejao and Bynum, there's one really good center! If the two of them can just be marginally healthy, the Cavs look good. When the dust settles we think the Cavs could easily hit 45 wins. In his fourth year, LeBron's led the Cavs to the finals. Will Kyrie even be able to make the playoffs by then?

The Wrap

This team is a lot of fun. I find myself wondering whether we're being too pessimistic about the team or too optimistic. If Varejao or Bynum comes back fully, this team could be even stronger. If Irving learns to stop turning the ball over, he could be great. That said, the past numbers say we should temper our expectations. Cleveland fans should be happy though, they may very well get a chance to try to take LeBron down in the finals! Good luck with that.

 

The Cavs are the wild card in this whole exercise. If you told me they were a lottery team I'd believe you. If you said Conference Finals, I'd buy it too. It comes down to the fact that Varejao and Bynum are really good bigs surrounded by a young, talented core but they're also Anderson Varejao and Andrew Bynum. Will either of them crack 1000 minutes played this season? Who knows.

If both are healthy to the tune of 2000 minutes each? This team will duel Chicago for the Division and be a spoiler come playoff time. I'd love to see that.

Loading...