The Draft is here, and the question on everyone's mind is: which teams will get the players that will ensure a bright future? The reality? Few – if any – of these players will be very productive in the near future. That said, some very talented people – Dave Berri and Ari Caroline – have put together some excellent analysis on the performance of many of the incoming players. So if you'd like some extra information to make you feel better (or worse) about your team's draft night decisions, read on!
Wins Produced
Dave Berri (@wagesofwins), professor of Economics at Southern Utah University and the founder of the Wages of Wins, has calculated the Wins Produced for all of the NCAA Men's basketball players this past season. While a player's college production does correlate with their NBA production, the reality is that it still doesn't explain over half of what ends up deciding how they fare in the NBA. It's possible for players with good college numbers to be busts – hey there, Michael Beasley! It's also possible for players with subpar numbers to blossom – hello Andre Drummond! In short, these numbers aren't a seal of approval or a crystal ball. Rather, consider these transcripts that players bring to a job interview.
Again, Dave went all out with the numbers. Long-term, we'll definitely look into creating a page to be able sort and search these – just like our NBA Players page. Until then, I've decided to look at the top 25 players (according to Wins Produced per 40 minutes) at each position. I haven't filtered out players that have returned to school, meaning these are the "Dean's List" of players from last year's NCAA season.
Centers
Name | Team | Year | MP | WP40 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Frank Kaminsky | Wisconsin | Sr | 1311 | 0.264 | 8.6 |
Jameel Warney | Stony Brook | Jr | 1148 | 0.299 | 8.6 |
Daniel Ochefu | Villanova | Jr | 865 | 0.325 | 7.0 |
Seth Tuttle | Northern Iowa | Sr | 1063 | 0.263 | 7.0 |
Willie Cauley-Stein | Kentucky | Jr | 1012 | 0.262 | 6.6 |
Kendall Gray | Delaware State | Sr | 1149 | 0.230 | 6.6 |
Jahlil Okafor | Duke | Fr | 1143 | 0.227 | 6.5 |
Ryan Spangler | Oklahoma | Jr | 1088 | 0.227 | 6.2 |
Egidijus Mockevicius | Evansville | Jr | 948 | 0.256 | 6.1 |
Ricardo Gathers | Baylor | Jr | 1015 | 0.230 | 5.8 |
A.J. West | Nevada | Jr | 873 | 0.266 | 5.8 |
Michael Holyfield | Sam Houston State | Sr | 628 | 0.369 | 5.8 |
Tonye Jekiri | Miami (FL) | Jr | 1120 | 0.205 | 5.7 |
Shawn Long | Louisiana-Lafayette | Jr | 951 | 0.241 | 5.7 |
Richaun Holmes | Bowling Green | Sr | 892 | 0.256 | 5.7 |
James Webb III | Boise State | So | 886 | 0.255 | 5.6 |
Bobby Portis | Arkansas | So | 1076 | 0.209 | 5.6 |
Mo Alie-Cox | VCU | So | 935 | 0.238 | 5.6 |
Anthony Gill | Virginia | Jr | 859 | 0.257 | 5.5 |
Michale Kyser | Louisiana Tech | Sr | 1026 | 0.215 | 5.5 |
Kyle Wiltjer | Gonzaga | Jr | 1049 | 0.208 | 5.4 |
Josh Scott | Colorado | Jr | 802 | 0.271 | 5.4 |
Jarvis Williams | Murray State | Sr | 1085 | 0.200 | 5.4 |
Eric Stutz | Eastern Kentucky | Sr | 1025 | 0.210 | 5.4 |
Rashid Gaston | Norfolk State | Jr | 995 | 0.215 | 5.4 |
Power Forwards
Name | Team | Year | MP | WP40 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kameron Woods | Butler | Sr | 1063 | 0.284 | 7.5 |
Montrezl Harrell | Louisville | Jr | 1229 | 0.233 | 7.2 |
Karl-Anthony Towns | Kentucky | Fr | 824 | 0.339 | 7.0 |
Nigel Hayes | Wisconsin | So | 1318 | 0.210 | 6.9 |
Jordan Parks | North Carolina Central | Sr | 1042 | 0.264 | 6.9 |
Pascal Siakam | New Mexico State | Fr | 1048 | 0.259 | 6.8 |
Jalen Cannon | St. Francis (NY) | Sr | 1184 | 0.229 | 6.8 |
Aaron White | Iowa | Sr | 1070 | 0.247 | 6.6 |
Dom Pointer | St. John's | Sr | 1143 | 0.230 | 6.6 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Arizona | So | 1090 | 0.236 | 6.4 |
Hassan Martin | Rhode Island | So | 949 | 0.267 | 6.3 |
Gary Clark | Cincinnati | Fr | 945 | 0.262 | 6.2 |
Denzel Valentine | Michigan State | Jr | 1295 | 0.183 | 5.9 |
Kevon Looney | UCLA | Fr | 1114 | 0.212 | 5.9 |
Christian Wood | UNLV | Fr | 1078 | 0.206 | 5.6 |
John Simons | Central Michigan | Jr | 982 | 0.223 | 5.5 |
Desharick Guidry | McNeese State | Sr | 1092 | 0.200 | 5.4 |
Dyshawn Pierre | Dayton | Jr | 1201 | 0.179 | 5.4 |
Rakeem Christmas | Syracuse | Sr | 1064 | 0.200 | 5.3 |
Steve Zack | La Salle | Sr | 1029 | 0.204 | 5.2 |
Jordyn Martin | Northern Arizona | Jr | 1045 | 0.194 | 5.1 |
Domas Sabonis | Gonzaga | Fr | 822 | 0.246 | 5.1 |
Richard Ross | Old Dominion | Sr | 883 | 0.229 | 5.1 |
Matt McMullen | Colgate | Sr | 1086 | 0.186 | 5.0 |
Pat Connaughton | Notre Dame | Sr | 1351 | 0.149 | 5.0 |
Small Forwards
Name | Team | Year | MP | WP40 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Delon Wright | Utah | So | 1165 | 0.340 | 9.9 |
Jerian Grant | Notre Dame | Sr | 1408 | 0.242 | 8.5 |
Terry Tarpey | William & Mary | Jr | 1000 | 0.310 | 7.7 |
Jordan Fouse | Green Bay | Jr | 1061 | 0.285 | 7.6 |
Thomas Walkup | Stephen F. Austin | Jr | 943 | 0.320 | 7.6 |
Juan'ya Green | Hofstra | Jr | 1239 | 0.223 | 6.9 |
Jalen Nesbitt | North Florida | Sr | 1135 | 0.238 | 6.8 |
Royce O'Neale | Baylor | Sr | 1060 | 0.250 | 6.6 |
Javonte Green | Radford | Sr | 892 | 0.297 | 6.6 |
Kevin Hardy | McNeese State | Sr | 1154 | 0.229 | 6.6 |
Sam Dekker | Wisconsin | Jr | 1239 | 0.208 | 6.4 |
Tyler Kalinoski | Davidson | Sr | 1112 | 0.223 | 6.2 |
Wesley Saunders | Harvard | Sr | 1030 | 0.234 | 6.0 |
J.J. O'Brien | San Diego State | Sr | 1183 | 0.199 | 5.9 |
Anthony Brown | Stanford | Sr | 1320 | 0.175 | 5.8 |
James Siakam | Vanderbilt | Sr | 827 | 0.280 | 5.8 |
Ron Baker | Wichita State | Jr | 1145 | 0.201 | 5.8 |
Jamal Reynolds | Canisius | Jr | 829 | 0.276 | 5.7 |
J.P. Tokoto | North Carolina | Jr | 1098 | 0.206 | 5.7 |
Josh Hart | Villanova | So | 917 | 0.240 | 5.5 |
Patricio Garino | George Washington | Jr | 1107 | 0.198 | 5.5 |
R.J. Hunter | Georgia State | Jr | 1294 | 0.169 | 5.5 |
Isaac Cohen | Columbia | Jr | 834 | 0.261 | 5.4 |
Dominique Lee | Northern Colorado | Sr | 774 | 0.280 | 5.4 |
Kenrich Williams | Texas Christian | So | 917 | 0.234 | 5.4 |
Shooting Guards
Name | Team | Year | MP | WP40 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Collinsworth | Brigham Young | Jr | 1019 | 0.329 | 8.4 |
Corey Walden | Eastern Kentucky | Sr | 1108 | 0.298 | 8.3 |
Gary Payton II | Oregon State | Jr | 1125 | 0.280 | 7.9 |
Monte Morris | Iowa State | So | 1153 | 0.273 | 7.9 |
Kris Dunn | Providence | So | 1123 | 0.269 | 7.6 |
Drew Brandon | Eastern Washington | Sr | 1139 | 0.252 | 7.2 |
Cameron Payne | Murray State | So | 1126 | 0.250 | 7.0 |
Roderick Bobbitt | Hawaii | Jr | 1120 | 0.236 | 6.6 |
Pierria Henry | Charlotte | Sr | 1003 | 0.261 | 6.5 |
Levi Randolph | Alabama | Sr | 1200 | 0.216 | 6.5 |
D'Angelo Russell | Ohio State | Fr | 1188 | 0.217 | 6.4 |
Alex Caruso | Texas A&M | Jr | 1038 | 0.248 | 6.4 |
Jake Bittle | South Dakota State | Jr | 1019 | 0.251 | 6.4 |
Marcus Paige | North Carolina | Jr | 1255 | 0.187 | 5.9 |
Chris Fowler | Central Michigan | Jr | 1093 | 0.212 | 5.8 |
Ky Madden | Arkansas | Sr | 978 | 0.237 | 5.8 |
Melo Trimble | Maryland | Fr | 1151 | 0.197 | 5.7 |
Dylan Cox | Army | Jr | 834 | 0.272 | 5.7 |
Kaheem Ransom | Sam Houston State | Sr | 1004 | 0.221 | 5.6 |
Luke Roh | Colgate | Sr | 1084 | 0.199 | 5.4 |
Stanley Johnson | Arizona | Fr | 1081 | 0.196 | 5.3 |
Shaquille Harrison | Tulsa | Jr | 1069 | 0.196 | 5.2 |
Jonathan Octeus | Purdue | Sr | 977 | 0.214 | 5.2 |
Trevor Lacey | North Carolina State | Jr | 1256 | 0.165 | 5.2 |
Damion Lee | Drexel | Jr | 1029 | 0.201 | 5.2 |
Point Guards
Name | Team | Year | MP | WP40 | Wins |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
T.J. McConnell | Arizona | Sr | 1158 | 0.330 | 9.6 |
Jalan West | Northwestern State | Jr | 1104 | 0.337 | 9.3 |
Speedy Smith | Louisiana Tech | Sr | 1191 | 0.289 | 8.6 |
Fred Van Vleet | Wichita State | Jr | 1104 | 0.293 | 8.1 |
Tyus Jones | Duke | Fr | 1322 | 0.239 | 7.9 |
Kevin Pangos | Gonzaga | Sr | 1278 | 0.239 | 7.6 |
Nimrod Hilliard IV | North Carolina Central | Sr | 1097 | 0.252 | 6.9 |
Reece Chamberlain | Belmont | Sr | 1031 | 0.265 | 6.8 |
Tyler Strange | Gardner-Webb | Sr | 1200 | 0.221 | 6.6 |
Mikh McKinney | Sacramento State | Sr | 1183 | 0.216 | 6.4 |
Brett Comer | Florida Gulf Coast | Sr | 1054 | 0.238 | 6.3 |
Demetrius Jackson | Notre Dame | So | 1318 | 0.185 | 6.1 |
Kahlil Felder | Oakland | So | 1272 | 0.192 | 6.1 |
Josh Gasser | Wisconsin | Sr | 1320 | 0.181 | 6.0 |
Will Cummings | Temple | Sr | 1224 | 0.192 | 5.9 |
Johnathan Jordan | Texas A&M-CC | Sr | 1219 | 0.192 | 5.9 |
Dre Wills | Vermont | So | 927 | 0.251 | 5.8 |
Derek Jackson | Kent State | Sr | 1181 | 0.191 | 5.6 |
Shannon Scott | Ohio State | Sr | 1068 | 0.210 | 5.6 |
Christopher Hyder | Southern | Jr | 1019 | 0.219 | 5.6 |
Wade Baldwin IV | Vanderbilt | Fr | 1009 | 0.218 | 5.5 |
Yogi Ferrell | Indiana | Jr | 1186 | 0.184 | 5.4 |
Alec Wintering | Portland | So | 1064 | 0.204 | 5.4 |
Ryan Boatright | Connecticut | Sr | 1216 | 0.178 | 5.4 |
Mike Talley | Eastern Michigan | Sr | 1026 | 0.210 | 5.4 |
Notes
As I said before posting all these numbers – thanks again Dave! – these are not written in stone. Things like age, height, strength of schedule, etc., can impact how a player looks. Smart people like Arturo Galletti and Layne Vashro have made models that attempt to incorporate such things. And in the end, what gets players drafted will tend towards the more "conventional" stats (i.e. points and being on a winning team). That said, the players above have performed very well in what is basically the NBA's minor league. On draft night, many teams will be looking for new players, and here is a good place to start.
Wait, there's more!
Ari Caroline (@aricaroline), Chief Analytics Officer at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and someone who has also done some amazing basketball research in the past, had some fun research to pass along as well. Below is a graphic showing age-adjusted production per 40 minutes for Draft Express prospects. Other than having Frank Kaminsky a little too low, I think it's an amazing chart.
So there you have it! All the tools you need to look at your favourite team's upcoming draft selections and proclaim "they have all the skills to maybe be a good or bad player in the NBA!"