The 2015/16 NBA Season is almost upon us, and this year, Boxscore Geeks' season previews are going to be a little different. Take a look at my preview of the Atlantic division for more background on how we are doing things differently.
In this article, I'm going to swing over to the other coast, and take a look at the Southeast division.
5th. The Orlando Magic
Additions: C.J. Watson, Jason Smith, Mario Hezonja, Shabazz Napier
Subtractions: Willie Green, Kyle O'Quinn, Luke Ridnour, Ben Gordon, Maurice Harkless
Vegas Over/Under: 32.5
My take: The under, please.
A few years ago, right after the Dwight Howard trade, I was a guest on Marc Ryan's radio show in Central Florida. The topic at hand was our contention that if you look at teams that tear down their roster in order to rebuild (say, by trading a big star for draft picks and salary cap relief), after a few years, those teams generally still stink. And, well...here we are.
While they got some interesting pieces from the Howard trade, it should be noted that some of those pieces have moved on (like Harkless), and others are no longer cheap (like Vucevic). Three years later, this is still just a rebuilding team full of (unrealised) potential. On top of this, they continue to make baffling moves with their salary cap. Last year, it was Channing Frye. This year....why do they need C.J Watson?
Sure, Oladipo will likely improve this year, because that is what young players do, but it is going to take a quantum leap to move the needle more than a couple of wins. Vucevic will have to improve to justify his contract, but he's approaching the age where one can no longer expect year-over-year improvement.
4th. The Charlotte Hornets
Additions: Aaron Harrison, Frank Kaminsky, Jeremy Lamb, Jeremy Lin, Nicolas Batum, Spencer Hawes, Tyler Hansbrough
Subtractions: Bismack Biyombo, Jason Maxiell, Jeffery Taylor, Noah Vonleh, Mo Williams, Gerald Henderson, Gary Neal, Lance Stephenson, Jannero Pargo
Vegas Over/Under: 32.5
My take: I think the over/under is spot on. Flip a coin.
I really like Biyombo, but he wasn't being used, so his absence won't make a difference. Something really curious happened to Lance Stephenson, so even though I think he could bounce back, I don't think it was going to happen in Charlotte. He also will not be missed. I liked what little we saw of Vonleh and I think it was a mistake to trade him, but he obviously wasn't a factor last year either.
Charlotte's additions are mostly good, but they are again going to have serious trouble getting their best players on the floor at the same time. I like Hansborough, but it's unlikely that he gets minutes over Kaminsky after what Charlotte did to draft him. I like Jeremy Lin, but Kemba Walker will be ahead of him in the depth chart. I love Nic Batum....but I also love MKG, so for both to see the floor, one of them will have to play shooting guard, or worse, power forward.
I just don't see how the pieces here fit together. I can see the team making the playoffs, but only because 37 wins might be enough in the East. Mostly, I think that 30-35 win range is just about perfect. I'll pick the over on them in the portfolio, but it could really go either way with this team and will depend a lot on the lineups they roll out.
3rd. The Miami Heat
Additions: Amare Stoudemire, Gerald Green, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow
Subtractions: Henry Walker, Michael Beasley, Danny Granger, Shawne Williams, Shabazz Napier, Zoran Dragic
Vegas Over/Under: 45.5
My take: I like the under, but barely.
First off, I am pretty sure that Hassan Whiteside is "the real deal". If you look at his college production and his 500ish minutes before he came to Miami, those may be small sample sizes, but none of it contradicts what we saw from him last year, which is that he is a prodigous rebounder and shot blocker. He's likely to even improve a little this year by reducing his foul rate.
Nevertheless, I think the mainstream media is too high on this team. Wade looks old. His efficiency last year was his worst since his rookie season. Bosh was pretty terrible for the Heat last year even before he had to sit out, and now he's a year older and working himself into shape.
I don't like the signing of Stoudemire, either. I'm always confused when teams use thier last roster spots to sign veterans way past their prime instead of young players who haven't yet hit their prime.
This certainly won't be a bad team, but I think folks are treating Justise Winslow as a sure thing, when, like all rookies, his future is as uncertain as the Republican canditorial race. They also seem to be taking it as a given that Wade and Bosh will return to the form of prior years, and this is, again, far from certain.
2nd. The Washington Wizards
Additions: Alan Anderson, Gary Neal, Jared Dudley, Kelly Oubre Jr., Kris Humphries, Dejuan Blair
Subtractions: Glen Rice Jr, Kevin Seraphin, Rasual Butler, Paul Pierce, Will Bynum
Vegas Over/Under: 45.5
My take: I like the over...a little bit.
I think Washington actually improved a smidge. Dudley and Anderson are both solid players who will make up for the loss of the aging Pierce. I think the mainstream media again vastly overemphasizes the impact of his departure -- this wasn't the 2008 Paul Pierce, and playoff heroics aside, he won't be that hard to replace.
John Wall was arguably the East's best point guard last year (unless we count LeBron), and is still only 25 years old. I expect him to be a big producer this year. I think Otto Porter is going to make a big leap this year, and their front court is deep. Both Blair and Humphries are players that have been traditionally underrated.
On the other hand, I am never going to quite understand everyone's obsession with Bradley Beal. Over the first three years of his career, his production has been virtually unchanged. I suppose it is certainly possible that he makes a quantum leap, but I'm never going to be quite clear why everyone seems to think the signs are imminent.
1st. Atlanta Hawks
Additions: Justin Holiday, Lamar Patterson, Tiago Splitter, Tim Hardaway Jr., Walter Tavares
Subtractions: Pero Antic, Austin Daye, DeMarre Carroll, John Jenkins, Elton Brand
Vegas Over/Under: 49.5
My take: I hate overs, but I'll take this one.
Everyone is down on the Hawks for two reasons: 1) they all think that last year was just a fluke, and 2) they all think DeMarre Carroll will be an irreplacable loss.
If you are a Hawks fan, I'm here to tell you that it isn't that bad. Here's a couple of hot takes for you: Tiago Splitter is going to be a monstrous upgrade over the awful Pero Antic, and Mike Muscala is going to be a great role player. These, along with the return of Sefalosha and the emerging play of Kent Bazemore, are going to make Carroll's loss more palatable.
I hate to bet the over, especially on good teams. There's so much injury risk, and then there are days when the coach rests players on back-to-backs. But the thing about Atlanta is that it is a pretty deep team, especially in the front court, and often those reserve players aren't going to be that big of a downgrade.
Oh, and last year....that was no fluke.