The 2014/15 MVP Race: Fear the Beards

Plough deep while sluggards sleep.

-Benjamin Franklin

The idea of hard work as an ultimate virtue is one that is deeply ingrained in the American psyche. This is also known as the protestant work ethic, and it has its roots in the protestant reformation started by Martin Luther. 

Hard work which benefits the person and society at large is viewed as a path to divinity and salvation. The idea goes further and posits that not only is hard work a reflection of faith but that material success is a reflection of divine approval.

A while back, I introduced a metric called the MVP Score (I introduced it here) which looked like so:

MVP Score = Team Win % * ( A*Player%TotalPts + B*Player%TotalRebounds+ C*Player%TotalAssists+ D*Player%TotalBlocks+ E*Player%TotalSteals+ F*Player%TotalTurnovers + G*Player%TotalFGMiss+H*Player%TotalFouls) + I*DefensiveWinShares/GamesPlayed +K

It works pretty darn well. It is interesting how much it reflects mathematically what I would perceive as the "moral" NBA mvp. A player's MVP score is a reflection of the perceived share of the workload a player is shouldering for his team; i.e. his diligence. It's tied to overall team success as a reflection of the divine approval of his work.

Even the exceptions to the rule seem to be morally tied to the protestant idea of work:

  • Don't be a perceived as a villian by the public. Moral factors and external factors can lead to an incumbent, a media favorite or a bridesmaid sneaking in (The Rose tinted glasses or Bad decision Lebron).
  • Media market size and fanbase combined with long term team success play a part (let’s call this the Kobe Corollary).
  • Having multiple candidates on a team plays a part and does not favor newcomers (let’s call this one Pau’s Dilemma).
  • Also playing on, say, a 50 win 8th seed in a loaded year can kill your chances (the Anthony Davis exception).
  • You have to at least be perceived to be trying in all facets of the game (the James Haren/Amian Lilar effect)
  • Finally, it does look like advanced stats do have some sort of effect (let’s name this one the Berri-Oliver-Iverson Hypothesis)

So far this year, we have the tightest field since 2008. Let's see how it looks (The left axis is the player value using my game metric, the bottom axis is the MVP score):

 

There are 15 players on that graph with an MVP score over 30% (Note: this is through the games of 12/13/14). I will mention that three of last year's top five (Durant, Blake Griffin and Joakim Noah) are not on the list. Durant is the most obvious ommision because of injury. If the Thunder can rally to a top four seed (that's a big if), he'd probably leapfrog in to the favorite position.

On to the list: 

15. Tony Parker (57.9 Rating,30.3% MVP Score): Tony is having an alright season, but at this point it's clear that the Spurs are Kawhi's team and Tim is the other key cog. Tony is not getting any votes and likely won't see any honors this year.

14. Al Horford (85.9 Rating,30.7% MVP Score): Al's been coming on recently and it's no accident that the Hawks are on a tear at the same time. If the Hawks continue at this pace, he's going to see some 3rd to 5th place MVP votes. I suspect comeback player of the year is way more likely.

13. John Wall (84.4 Rating,34.2% MVP Score): John Wall is going to get the love for a very solid Wizards season. He will get the All Star nod and some well deserved fourth and fifth place votes. He may have a shot at third team all NBA as well.

12. Damian Lillard (95 Rating,34.3% MVP Score): Lillard is having a killer year. His team is looking very much like a top four seed in a historically loaded West. He is, however, clearly perceived as the "Robin" to Aldridge's "Batman". He'll be lucky to make the All Star team and third team all-nba. I don't see him getting any MVP votes, particularly until he lives the "Amian" nickname down.

11. Mike Conley (91.7 Rating,35.8% MVP Score): Conley is a more advanced version of Lillard. He is very good, but once again is not perceived as the team's best player. He does not have the "no D" stigma that Lillard has, but he's also not as good offensively. He's not making the all star team and he's not getting MVP votes. He's much more likely to get third team All-NBA consideration though.

10. Chris Paul (99.6 Rating,35.9% MVP Score): CP3 is our first serious candidate in no small part because the voters "owe" him an MVP for the the 2008 trophy that was stolen from him. His productivity is indisputable, as is his body of work over his career. If the Clippers remain close to the best record in the league I'd put his MVP odds at 3 to 1. 

9. Pau Gasol (84.1 Rating,38.9% MVP Score): Pau is probably the best player ever with the least MVP votes. He should see some love this year particularly if he remains the lone healthy Bull outside of Jimmy Butler. The big spaniard deserves a lot of 4th and fifth place votes.

8. Klay Thompson (91.4 Rating,39.4% MVP Score): Klay has had a hell of a season. So much so that he might actually make the All star team and maybe second team all nba. However, he's playing with Steph Curry. He's not seeing any MVP votes.

7. Chris Bosh (71.4 Rating,42.2% MVP Score): Bosh had some early buzz, but Miami's win total has killed that. The closer Miami gets to fifty wins, the better that buzz would be. I don't see it at all. He'll be an all star and he'll be third team NBA, and that will be just right. 

6. Anthony Davis (99.6 Rating,45.7% MVP Score): Anthony Davis is perhaps the best 21 year old ever to play in the NBA. He's the best power forward and might be the best player overall in the NBA. He also plays on a lousy team that won't make the playoffs barring an act of god or a crazy trade. He's a lock for the all star team and first team all NBA. He should be on 99% of all MVP ballots and even get some first place votes. His team is not good enough for him to win, and he hasn't suffered enough. Next year, he will probably be the favorite.

5. LaMarcus Aldridge (77.6 Rating,50.8% MVP Score): Lamarcus, as much as he is perceived as the best player on the Blazers by the public, is consistently hurt (correctly so) by his less than stellar advanced metrics. He is also emphatically not as good as Anthony Davis. He'll do better than last year's tenth place finish, but not by much.

4. Stephen Curry (100 Rating,50.9% MVP Score): Legit candidate number 2. Curry has a legitimate argument as the best player in the game and his team is the best in the NBA right now. The only caveat to his candidacy is how good and deep his team actually is. He's going to be on all ballots but I just can't see it yet unless he gets some help. A top three MVP vote finish and a first team all nba selection is where he's at right now.

3. LeBron James (73.7 Rating,56.5% MVP Score): The King, after a crappy start, has righted the ship and looks to be about 85% of his old self. Will it be enough? The win total and the seeding needs to be watched here as well as voter fatigue. Unless Cleveland goes on a crazy run (entirely possible in the East), I think Lebron just won't excite voters. Fairly or unfairly, the voters are also going to expect more from him before giving him a record tying fifth MVP award. He's on every ballot and he's top four but unless 2013 Lebron shows up he's not winning a fifth award.

2. Marc Gasol (85.8 Rating,58.2% MVP Score): Marc was likely the early favorite, but he's cooled off somewhat. He's clearly the key cog for a dominant Grizzlies team. He's also got one career MVP vote. I think he's getting all the honors this year (all star starter, 1st team all nba, defensive player of the year) and a top five MVP finish. A win isn't very likely for him in Memphis.

1. James Harden (94.7 Rating,72.4% MVP Score): James Harden has had a bad reputation follow him around. The whispers say he's more concerned about partying than delivering on the court . He's been taken to task (justifiably) for being less than stellar on defense. I've always believed in James Harden and his talent and I've always kept in mind his age. Young players are immature but they grow out of it. This is a story that is often repeated. It seems very much like this is the year it happens for James. No one has done more for their team this year. The offensive load is not a surprise but what has been surprising is how even without Dwight the Houston defense has been close to the top of the league. We love a redemption story and the Harden narrative is perfect. By all rights he should be the all star starter and only Kobe-craziness will stop it. He's also your first quarter MVP

Let's revisit this at the All star break.

 

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