“All major changes are like death. You can't see to the other side until you are there.”

― Michael Crichton, Jurassic Park

(Note, If you're unfamiliar with the methodology behind these rankings feel free to go here for a full explanation. A few tweaks and enhancements have been made from last year, most notably to our playoff probabilities in line with the math from this post.)

222 of the season's 1230 scheduled regular season games, or 18% of the total have been played. Mathematically, we are at the point were we can make very solid conclusions (I proved it!).

We always get some of our calls wrong. We miss things (Courtney Lee!). Injuries happen (I'm sorry Steve, Russell and Julius). Rookies and Young players make jumps. Coaches are not rational actors (Hello Cleveland!). But hey, we get some things right. Toronto as the surest thing in the East was one of those. These Raptors are a shoo-in to win the Atlantic and the early favorite for the #1 seed overall. 

Let's get to the first rankings of the season that truly tell us something mathematically.

Let's look at the sim and the odds.

Toronto is our clear one seed out of the East. The West makes up 8 of the top 10 spots and 11 of the top 15 spots. It is almos a guarantee that a Western Conference team will miss the playoffs, and that the same team would be favored to make the Eastern Conference Finals if they defected to the East.

If I were setting the title odds at this point, I'd go: Spurs 35%, Memphis 15%, Dallas 15%, Rest of the West field 25%, East 10%. Before anyone complains that I slighted their favorite Western Team, I'd like to point out that since 1978, we've had one team that have won the title without the majority of their principals having at least played in the Conference Finals before: The Houston Rockets in 1994 (and Hakeem had been to the Finals before). That's 1 out of 37. The Spurs, Grizzlies, Mavs and Rockets are the only West teams that meet that requirement. The Rockets are a banged up, which throws them back to the field.

It's the Spurs title to lose, and so far I have not seen anything to convince me otherwise.

Here are the game-based player rankings (as seem in the previews). In brief:

• The Y-Axis represents a player's offensive contribution (scoring and handling). Plus offensive players are up.
• The Y-Axis represents a player's defensive and rebounding contribution. Plus defensive players are to the right.
• The size of the bubble is sized by minutes played
• Ratings are calculated based on overall Player value converted to a percentile. A player with a rating of 10 for example is expected to be better than 10 percent of the player population in the NBA
• The Players will be labeled with their last names and their overall rating.
• If you select a player on the graph, you'll get a lot more information.
• You can also select by teams, experience and position.
• Have fun!

I'm going to work these out for the team rankings and use them as a reference for discussion. Here they are thru 11/25/14:

 

 

Let's talk a bit about the teams:

• #1 Toronto Raptors Neutral Site Win:74.9% (Up 1,#1 in offense, #8 in defense): Toronto is rolling. They have the best offense and a top ten defense. They have 7 of their top 9 in minutes at .150 WP48 or above. This team is built for the regular season. My biggest worry for them is that, historically, their lack of playoff experience sets their ceiling as a conference finalist, barring some real luck (or another killer Masai trade). This team reminds me so much of 2009 Orlando.
• #2 Golden State Warriors Neutral Site Win:72.7% (Up 2,#8 in offense, #2 in defense): Right now, pretty much every single Warrior is rated as a plus defender. I thought Mark Jackson was the great defensive coach? I really do love this team. Curry is the new best point guard in the NBA. But like the Raptors, their lack of playoff experience limits their ceiling. If only they had a redundant asset they could move to enhance that.... Oh! I'm sorry, David Lee, I didn't see you there.
• #3 Portland Trail Blazers Neutral Site Win:68.7% (No Change,#5 in offense, #5 in defense): Portland remains pretty much who they were last year, except that Amian has finally evolved into Damian by finding his defense. I worry that this team is an injury away from leaning heavily on Kaman and Freeland. I also have the same playoff experience concerns as I do with Toronto and the Warriors.
• #4 Memphis Grizzlies Neutral Site Win:68.4% (Up 1,#14 in offense, #6 in defense): A fifth of the way through the season, Memphis looks like the best bet to end the Spurs western reign. Marc Gasol will be in any MVP discussion, Courtney Lee should be. This team is deep and solid and features playoff veterans across the board. Looks like I was wrong in picking them to fall off. Grit and grind is a legit contender.
• #5 Cleveland Cavaliers Neutral Site Win:68% (Up 11,#4 in offense, #14 in defense): Is that the Cavs in the top five? Why, yes it is! Lebron James seems to have found his Mojo again, with Kyrie and Kevin Love not far behind (.233 WP48, .201 WP48 and .149 WP48 respectively). I still don't think Blatt has figured out what to run offensively. I still think Waiters needs to be moved out ASAP. This team is so talented that it won't matter. Odds on favorite to make the finals in East (and then proceed to lose in five).
• #6 San Antonio Spurs Neutral Site Win:67.4% (No Change,#17 in offense, #3 in defense): The Spurs have not been shooting well (17th in offense). They're missing their best rim protector (Tiago) and their best ball handler (Patty). They're managing to play great defense though and sit on an 8-1 record over their last 9 with road wins over the Warriors (on a back to back) and Cleveland. I'm not worried about them and you shouldn't be either.
• #7 Dallas Mavericks Neutral Site Win:63% (Up 1,#2 in offense, #18 in defense): Ok. Here's the thing: Monta and Parsons, 1 and 2 in the rotation, have not been great (.067 and .091 WP48). This might feel like nitpicking but it's crucial in the West. I think the Mavs are a legit contender but I would feel a lot better about them if they could upgrade at the 1 and 2. Jameer, Monta, Barea and Devin Harris feels like a huge liability come playoff time in the West.
• #8 Houston Rockets Neutral Site Win:61.2% (Down 7,#25 in offense, #1 in defense): Harden is playing defense this year and it shows (they have the #1 defense in the NBA). The injuries to their post stars are really hurting them right now though. Houston needs Dwight and Terrence Jones. I expect this team to improve as they get healthier.
• #9 Los Angeles Clippers Neutral Site Win:60.7% (Up 11,#3 in offense, #27 in defense): Blake still looks to be recovering from his injuries. CP3 and Deandre still look awesome. Crawford has been good. Everything else on this roster is not good.  I remain skeptical that any coach currently based out of staples knows how to coach defense. I think a healthy Blake makes this better but I can't see this team getting any further in the playoffs.
• #10 Sacramento Kings Neutral Site Win:58.8% (Down 1,#7 in offense, #9 in defense): Kings continue to hold steady as a playoff team. My only real quibble is that Landry and Reggie Evans should be seeing more playing time than Jason Thompson (.160 WP48, .163 WP48 versus -.055 WP48). Can this hold? It'll be fun to find out.
• #11 Phoenix Suns Neutral Site Win:57.7% (Up 2,#12 in offense, #13 in defense): The Suns are the 11th best team in the NBA right now and better than all but two East teams and I have them out of the playoffs again. The West is a killing field. The hope is that P.J. Tucker (.255 WP48), who missed some early time, is the engine that makes this go and that Goran can find his 2013-4 form. It's crazy that this team could win in the 45-50 range again and miss the playoffs again.
• #12 Chicago Bulls Neutral Site Win:54.7% (Down 5,#16 in offense, #12 in defense): In a fair world, Jimmy Butler (.303 WP48) would be getting serious MVP consideration. He's kept this Bulls season from going completely off the rails. The way this season has gone thus far? I feel super confident about picking the Bulls for 45 wins. Rose can't stay on the court and when he actually playing he's a shadow of his former self (.080 WP48 and only about a third of the possible minutes). This is a team that needs to think long and hard about trading for a PG. Taj and a pick for Goran, who says no?
• #13 New Orleans Pelicans Neutral Site Win:52.9% (Down 3,#6 in offense, #16 in defense): Anthony Davis, at 21, is the best player in the NBA and he's putting up an all-time season (.450 WP48). Missing Asik and his stellar D for any length of time will be death in the West. If I were ranking the four teams most likely to represent the West in the Finals, they all just happen to play on the same division as the Pelicans.
• #14 Washington Wizards Neutral Site Win:52.2% (Down 2,#19 in offense, #10 in defense): The Wiz are a nice team with a solid rotation. The Sim likes them at 46 wins and I think that more Beal and the return of Webster will edge them closer to 50 wins. Not a single player in the top eight in the rotation hits star level (>.200 WP48). They're getting in by default.
• #15 Denver Nuggets Neutral Site Win:49% (Up 14,#15 in offense, #21 in defense): Denver has turned it around a bit with a 6-2 record in their last 8. They're a .500 club right now with a heavy dependence on their home court advantage. Gallinari rounding back into form could get them into the #8 seed conversation. I would be looking to move Hickson for a rim protector.
• #16 Atlanta Hawks Neutral Site Win:48.9% (Up 1,#10 in offense, #26 in defense): Hawks are just about who we thought they were. Al Horford still looks like his is not 100%. Again, some improvement there keeps them within touching distance of the Wizards and a division banner. Their goals should not be loftier.
• #17 Miami Heat Neutral Site Win:48.2% (Down 6,#11 in offense, #28 in defense): If Wade plays, this Heat team can make the ECF. I'm being serious. They need to get enough games from him that they're not facing a road series in every round and some luck. I don't think they can really win with this roster. The outlook next year gets worse not better. Riley really needs to objectively look in the mirror and decide if blowing this up might be better in the long term.  A Celtics/Nets like trade might be the smartest move right now.
• #18 Oklahoma City Thunder Neutral Site Win:46.9% (Down 4,#28 in offense, #4 in defense): I'll give Scotty Brooks credit, he's kept it respectable. 44-22 is what this team needs the rest of the way to get in. With Russell set to come back tonight and the solid defense this team has played, it's looking to be possible. The margin for error is slim though. I want to wait a few more weeks before I make any definitive calls with the Thunder.
• #19 Brooklyn Nets Neutral Site Win:46.3% (Down 4,#20 in offense, #17 in defense): The Nets have an old, expensive roster, no picks and no real trade assets and are on pace to a 38-44 record, a first round drubbing by the Raptors and a worse record next year. Bad job by Billy King.
• #20 Boston Celtics Neutral Site Win:45.8% (Down 1,#9 in offense, #23 in defense): The Celtics have a young and affordable roster, multiple picks and all sorts of trade assets and are on pace to a 38-44 record, a first round character building loss to the Raptors and a better record next year. Good job by Danny Ainge.
• #21 Milwaukee Bucks Neutral Site Win:44.8% (Down 3,#27 in offense, #7 in defense): The Bucks have cooled off somewhat but remain young and exciting. I continue to expect growth and better performance from them as the season goes on. I love Giannis and Jabari Parker is hands down your rookie of the year.
• #22 Indiana Pacers Neutral Site Win:44.3% (Down 1,#26 in offense, #11 in defense): Paul George is due back when exactly? With the way the East looks right now, I could 100% see the Pacers making some real noise in the playoffs with a healthy George.  At full health, it might be a toss-up for this Pacers team in a series against any East team. Very, very intriguing.
• #23 New York Knicks Neutral Site Win:39.4% (Up 2,#21 in offense, #25 in defense): Jose Calderon being back will help this team's offense stop being so terrible. I'm doubtful you'll see the same effect on defense. Phil needs to be working those phones to move Amare (who's looked ok) and Bargnani.
• #24 Utah Jazz Neutral Site Win:36.3% (Up 3,#18 in offense, #24 in defense): View this season as a learning experience Jazz fans. That said, Exum, Burks, Hayward, Favors and Gobert need all the minutes.
• #25 Detroit Pistons Neutral Site Win:33.9% (Up 3,#29 in offense, #15 in defense): Josh Smith remains a crime against basketball right now. Pistons are -10.9 per 48 with him on the court and +6.3 with him off. That's a Win Loss % swing of 55%. Crazy.
• #26 Los Angeles Lakers Neutral Site Win:32.3% (Down 3,#13 in offense, #30 in defense): Kobe's bad shooting rampage is not good for anything but tanking. The Lakers are -13.3  per 48 with him on the court and +2.4 with him off. That is a Win Loss % swing of 51% . No one tell Kobe he's trailing Josh Smith. He'll shoot more!
• #27 Charlotte Hornets Neutral Site Win:31.2% (Down 3,#23 in offense, #22 in defense): Adding a great defender like Lance who had offensive flaws to a team that had offensive problems may have been the definition of a bad fit. Lance's strong defense didn't really move the needle in Charlotte. I still think he's a great player but he's a bad fit here. I'd be looking to move some of the pieces on this team for plus offensive players.
• #28 Orlando Magic Neutral Site Win:29.1% (Down 6,#22 in offense, #20 in defense): There's nothing to see here. Let's move on.
• #29 Minnesota Timberwolves Neutral Site Win:25.6% (Down 3,#24 in offense, #29 in defense): A trade has to be coming soon. Flip the coach is not the answer, maybe Flip the GM will be? Yeah, I know that's a reach.
• #30 Philadelphia 76ers Neutral Site Win:23.7% (No Change,#30 in offense, #19 in defense): The East is so bad that even now the model sees at least 18 wins here. 12, 15, 17, 15,9 and 15 are the win totals for an 82 game season for teams starting 0-15. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Enjoy those leftovers!

-Arturo